$BTC Bull Market Returning? Let's Talk About Crypto and A-shares
Yesterday, BTC's four-hour candlestick broke through 88000, followed by a pullback, with altcoins mostly seeing a 10-20% increase. So, is this wave of increase a return of the bull market, or just a rebound?
First of all, my personal view: the current market can only be seen as a rebound from the oversold level of 76600.
Only when BTC's daily candlestick breaks above 91100 might my outlook on Bitcoin change. But this does not necessarily represent the direction of the entire crypto market.
Because the divergence trend between BTC and altcoins means, to some extent, that the Bitcoin index is distorted.
This reflects a common phenomenon we've seen over the past year: when BTC rises, altcoins don’t necessarily rise; but when BTC falls, altcoins are likely to plummet.
Therefore, in judging the trend of the entire crypto market, we can also consider SOL.
When SOL's daily candlestick breaks 183 and does not quickly pull back, it could also be seen as forming a double top or head and shoulders pattern.
Under this condition, altcoins may experience a significant rebound.
However, in the long term, the outlook is not optimistic. BTC still follows the U.S. stock market; currently, it has not decoupled. Moreover, the decline in the U.S. stock market since the beginning of the year can only be viewed as a normal correction, and the risks of accelerated crashes or unforeseen events have not yet emerged.
As long as the accelerated crash of the U.S. stock market has not arrived, the crypto market is like a sword of Damocles hanging overhead, offering no sense of security.
The question that most crypto investors are most concerned about is: Is there still an altcoin season?
Undoubtedly, there is an altcoin season, but not for all cryptocurrencies. Before it arrives, it is highly probable that many secondary altcoins will be delisted or vanish during this downturn cycle.
So currently, for long-term positions, it is best to focus on the right side and keep it as a small portion of the overall crypto position, ensuring that sudden reversals do not completely leave you empty-handed.
At this moment, for altcoins, it is no longer a matter of others panicking while you remain greedy.
Rather, it is about whether your altcoin/your capital can survive until the next upward cycle.
Lastly, let’s briefly talk about A-shares. Last August, I published a bearish view on the U.S. stock market and a bullish view on A-shares.
Since the beginning of the year, A-shares have shown an opposite trend to U.S. stocks, experiencing a nice rally.
However, with the failed false breakout on March 14, it is highly probable that we will see a monthly line adjustment. It is likely that we will challenge the 3000 defense line again.
