JJ-比特頻道
聚焦財經、剖析市場，這裡是JJ-比特頻道
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Is ETH oversold on 2025/03/16?
Is ETH oversold? Historically, there have been 2 times when RSI dropped to this level. The first time dropped 80% to 295, the second time dropped 60% to 2043. Currently, it is the third time and has only dropped 50%. Is this considered oversold? Let's see how much further it fell after the previous two oversold events?
As for whether BTC is oversold? You can also take a look at the current position corresponding to the RSI, in fact, it is still early!
Regarding the medium to long-term plan for Bitcoin: first drop to the trend line of 68,000, then fall to 58,000 after a few days, and launch a certain degree (about 35%) of rebound, then drop significantly until breaking the 30,000 level and building a bottom for 1-2 years until the first quarter of 2027, and then due to the fermentation of the US reserve issue, facilitate the next wave of bull to 190,000 to 200,000.
As for whether BTC is oversold? You can also take a look at the current position corresponding to the RSI, in fact, it is still early!
Regarding the medium to long-term plan for Bitcoin: first drop to the trend line of 68,000, then fall to 58,000 after a few days, and launch a certain degree (about 35%) of rebound, then drop significantly until breaking the 30,000 level and building a bottom for 1-2 years until the first quarter of 2027, and then due to the fermentation of the US reserve issue, facilitate the next wave of bull to 190,000 to 200,000.
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2025/03/15 Extracting teeth from a tiger's mouth, take profits when available!
Let's examine the current consolidation pattern of the overall market:
The previous wave of market rose from over 30,000 to over 70,000, followed by a consolidation lasting more than half a year. After reaching a new low of 49,000, a pattern of higher lows and higher highs emerged.
This wave of market moved from over 60,000 to 110,000, and after reaching a new high on January 20, it has only consolidated for 2 months, showing a bearish trend with increasingly lower highs and lows.
Before the bearish trend completes its bottoming process, do not expect too much from any rebounds. Whether or not you catch a rebound, and regardless of whether you make a profit, it's best to take gains when they are available.
The previous wave of market rose from over 30,000 to over 70,000, followed by a consolidation lasting more than half a year. After reaching a new low of 49,000, a pattern of higher lows and higher highs emerged.
This wave of market moved from over 60,000 to 110,000, and after reaching a new high on January 20, it has only consolidated for 2 months, showing a bearish trend with increasingly lower highs and lows.
Before the bearish trend completes its bottoming process, do not expect too much from any rebounds. Whether or not you catch a rebound, and regardless of whether you make a profit, it's best to take gains when they are available.
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2025/03/13 Another chance to escape!
The Atlanta Fed's forecast for the U.S. GDP in the first quarter of this year is -2.82%. Historically, when GDP announcements turn negative, the price fluctuations of Bitcoin in the short term are as follows:
The first GDP decline of 5.3% was announced after the Fed had already lowered rates in advance (purple line). At that time, Bitcoin initially dropped by 40% and found its bottom after the announcement, subsequently entering a significant bull market, with prices climbing to 60000 USD.
The second GDP decline of 2% occurred before the announcement, as interest rates were close to 0%, and the Fed had no leverage available. Moreover, after the GDP announcement, interest rates were raised. Therefore, Bitcoin continued to drop by 60% before stabilizing after the announcement.
The first GDP decline of 5.3% was announced after the Fed had already lowered rates in advance (purple line). At that time, Bitcoin initially dropped by 40% and found its bottom after the announcement, subsequently entering a significant bull market, with prices climbing to 60000 USD.
The second GDP decline of 2% occurred before the announcement, as interest rates were close to 0%, and the Fed had no leverage available. Moreover, after the GDP announcement, interest rates were raised. Therefore, Bitcoin continued to drop by 60% before stabilizing after the announcement.
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2025/03/12 Short-term profit, waiting on the sidelines
Currently, the biggest uncertainty regarding Bitcoin still stems from the U.S. stock market. Although there has been a short-term correction, from a weekly perspective, the correction is still insufficient. Yesterday, it shifted from rising to falling again, so the proportion of Bitcoin holdings should still be controlled, and one should not easily go ALL IN.
The daily support level for Bitcoin is around 73000. If the U.S. stock market cannot stop falling, it may collapse and drop below 70000, and could go down to below 67000.
Looking at Bitcoin's 4-hour chart, it has not yet formed a Higher Highs pattern, so it's a matter of fighting while being cautious. The maximum holding should be 30%, and stop-loss should be set if it falls below 80000.
The daily support level for Bitcoin is around 73000. If the U.S. stock market cannot stop falling, it may collapse and drop below 70000, and could go down to below 67000.
Looking at Bitcoin's 4-hour chart, it has not yet formed a Higher Highs pattern, so it's a matter of fighting while being cautious. The maximum holding should be 30%, and stop-loss should be set if it falls below 80000.
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2025/03/11 Getting closer to the target
Those who can hold on in this market are all brave. I remember on May 6th last year, a group member told me he lost 2 million USDT and would stop playing.
Now, 8 months have passed again, and looking at the market, besides a few coins, all coins are on a downward trend, halving, halving, and halving again, more ferocious than the bear market's decline.
Especially in the past six months, the amount of liquidation in the market has increased in a geometric progression, and the amount of liquidation has also reached an all-time high, so those who still survive in this market and have USDT are all brave warriors!
Back to the market, the sharp decline in US stocks yesterday continues to drag down Bitcoin, with Bitcoin's lowest point just a step away from the set 72666, while the Nasdaq has already completed its decline in advance, giving it a chance to stop falling and rebound near the neckline, leading BTC to rise in a rebound.
Now, 8 months have passed again, and looking at the market, besides a few coins, all coins are on a downward trend, halving, halving, and halving again, more ferocious than the bear market's decline.
Especially in the past six months, the amount of liquidation in the market has increased in a geometric progression, and the amount of liquidation has also reached an all-time high, so those who still survive in this market and have USDT are all brave warriors!
Back to the market, the sharp decline in US stocks yesterday continues to drag down Bitcoin, with Bitcoin's lowest point just a step away from the set 72666, while the Nasdaq has already completed its decline in advance, giving it a chance to stop falling and rebound near the neckline, leading BTC to rise in a rebound.
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Insights on Whether the Bull Market Has Peaked as of 2025/03/08
In today's market, we can easily find dozens of indicators used to judge whether a bull market has peaked. However, in the current situation, almost all popular indicators have not yet shown signs of overheating. But we cannot conclude that indicators are not overheating, and thus buying long is safe.
Taking the commonly used MVRV indicator in the market as an example, the position of each small black circle often represents a relatively high level, and the corresponding yellow Bitcoin price usually marks the peak of the bull market.
However, in reality, analysts often overlook the position of the small red circles in the chart. From the labeling in the chart, the positions of these small red circles are not that high, even lower than the current position, yet Bitcoin has still experienced multiple epic 50% to 70% corrections.
Taking the commonly used MVRV indicator in the market as an example, the position of each small black circle often represents a relatively high level, and the corresponding yellow Bitcoin price usually marks the peak of the bull market.
However, in reality, analysts often overlook the position of the small red circles in the chart. From the labeling in the chart, the positions of these small red circles are not that high, even lower than the current position, yet Bitcoin has still experienced multiple epic 50% to 70% corrections.
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2025/03/06 Bitcoin drop meets 72,600
Market sentiment is actually very interesting. When the market declines, no one thinks much of it. Altcoins are cut in half and then cut again. As long as there is any rebound during this process, everyone believes that the altcoin market is about to come, and the sentiment is extremely high. However, the result is repeated losses. Bitcoin is the same; it drops from 110,000 to 100,000, then to 90,000, and then to 80,000. The market doesn't think much of it either, but as long as there is any rebound in between, market sentiment starts to FOMO, believing that a Bitcoin bull market is coming.
This market is different from previous markets, divided into two main categories. One category consists of altcoins that account for over 99.9%, which are in a perpetual bear market. Any rebound during this process is a short point, a point to escape. The other category consists of large market cap coins led by Bitcoin, which are still following similar cyclical patterns as before, with alternating bull and bear markets.
This market is different from previous markets, divided into two main categories. One category consists of altcoins that account for over 99.9%, which are in a perpetual bear market. Any rebound during this process is a short point, a point to escape. The other category consists of large market cap coins led by Bitcoin, which are still following similar cyclical patterns as before, with alternating bull and bear markets.
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2025/03/04 All Network Shorting, Extremes Must Reverse
All network contract shorting, long contracts experiencing massive liquidations!
The cryptocurrency market is about to welcome a major bull reversal at any moment!
#Market analysis for reference only #Not investment advice
#比特幣 #BTC #ETH #SOL #JJ比特頻道
All network contract shorting, long contracts experiencing massive liquidations!
The cryptocurrency market is about to welcome a major bull reversal at any moment!
#Market analysis for reference only #Not investment advice
#比特幣 #BTC #ETH #SOL #JJ比特頻道
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2025/03/04 Gap Filling Prepares for Another Rise
The market rose sharply to 95,000 to 96,000 but encountered resistance, followed by a much larger-than-expected pullback. The trigger factors for this pullback are related to the intensified decline in the U.S. stock market and the suspected actions of Trump’s son.
It is reported that Trump’s son previously made a profit by going long with 50x leverage at 85,000 points, and then went short at 93,000 points. This operation triggered a rapid panic sell-off of short-term profit-taking in the market, causing prices to fall significantly back to the previous consolidation platform. Meanwhile, this place also represents a complete filling of the CME futures gap.
Regarding the price trend of Bitcoin, it was originally expected that after a long bullish candlestick appeared, the pullback would not be too deep, and it would follow the blue path, breaking upward after digesting the selling pressure near the downward trend line. However, the current market has followed the yellow path, with prices dropping back to the consolidation platform. In the short term, this is another opportunity to accumulate positions.
It is reported that Trump’s son previously made a profit by going long with 50x leverage at 85,000 points, and then went short at 93,000 points. This operation triggered a rapid panic sell-off of short-term profit-taking in the market, causing prices to fall significantly back to the previous consolidation platform. Meanwhile, this place also represents a complete filling of the CME futures gap.
Regarding the price trend of Bitcoin, it was originally expected that after a long bullish candlestick appeared, the pullback would not be too deep, and it would follow the blue path, breaking upward after digesting the selling pressure near the downward trend line. However, the current market has followed the yellow path, with prices dropping back to the consolidation platform. In the short term, this is another opportunity to accumulate positions.
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2025/03/03 A Great Rebound from Despair
Recently, several rounds of operations by friends in my free public channel have been very smooth.
Go short at 105000, close position at 92000
Go long at 92000, close position at 98000
Go short at 97500, close position at 79000
Go long at 80000, continue to hold
Before last night's price surge, there was actually an expectation of a sudden rise based on ETH's past performance. Then, due to Trump’s remarks on Sunday, this surge was catalyzed, marking the largest single-day increase in the past 3-4 months. Congratulations to those who entered heavily at the lows.
Such a significant increase can often continue, so there is no need to rush to exit or take profits. Hold onto the low-priced positions we entered. Following the resolution of the BYBIT hacking incident, the U.S. stock market has also begun to rebound. Last Friday, the ETF shifted from selling to buying. There is also an eagerly awaited crypto conference this Friday in U.S. time. Although there are non-farm payroll data and unemployment rates this Thursday and Friday, as long as the data does not deviate significantly from expectations or performs better than expected, it will be beneficial for the market to continue rebounding this week.
Go short at 105000, close position at 92000
Go long at 92000, close position at 98000
Go short at 97500, close position at 79000
Go long at 80000, continue to hold
Before last night's price surge, there was actually an expectation of a sudden rise based on ETH's past performance. Then, due to Trump’s remarks on Sunday, this surge was catalyzed, marking the largest single-day increase in the past 3-4 months. Congratulations to those who entered heavily at the lows.
Such a significant increase can often continue, so there is no need to rush to exit or take profits. Hold onto the low-priced positions we entered. Following the resolution of the BYBIT hacking incident, the U.S. stock market has also begun to rebound. Last Friday, the ETF shifted from selling to buying. There is also an eagerly awaited crypto conference this Friday in U.S. time. Although there are non-farm payroll data and unemployment rates this Thursday and Friday, as long as the data does not deviate significantly from expectations or performs better than expected, it will be beneficial for the market to continue rebounding this week.
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2025/03/01 Review of BTC's Upward Momentum
Yesterday, I entered around 80,000, and it has now risen by 4,000 points. Looking at BTC purely from a candlestick perspective, while it has broken through the short-term downtrend, a pattern of higher lows and higher highs has yet to appear. Is this truly another long-term low point?
Returning to the essence of BTC's holdings, the open contracts for BTC at the same price level have decreased significantly, indicating that the market has substantially removed leverage.
This method may not show significant differences, but we can compare it with ETH to understand how cleanly leverage has been removed.
Returning to the essence of BTC's holdings, the open contracts for BTC at the same price level have decreased significantly, indicating that the market has substantially removed leverage.
This method may not show significant differences, but we can compare it with ETH to understand how cleanly leverage has been removed.
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2025/02/28 Cryptocurrency has been fully corrected
From the perspective of the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies, the entire market correction may have reached satisfaction
And Bitcoin's CME futures have also filled the gap from November 11 of last year. The position ratio can be increased to 40%
And Bitcoin's CME futures have also filled the gap from November 11 of last year. The position ratio can be increased to 40%
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2025/02/26 Bitcoin Short with the Trend
First, looking at the first chart, it shows an extremely precise W-shaped bottom structure, successfully breaking through the neckline and reaching a new high point recently. The trading range above presents a vacuum state; whether experienced investors or newcomers to the market, they will choose to go long with the trend or wait for a price pullback to enter the market.
This chart is the inverted chart of BTC. Assuming we restore the BTC normal chart and chase the rise, it is equivalent to shorting in this inverted chart when it declines, which is a counter-trend operation. We just need to prevent a real breakout of the neckline from turning into a false breakout, meaning we should not regain 92500.
This chart is the inverted chart of BTC. Assuming we restore the BTC normal chart and chase the rise, it is equivalent to shorting in this inverted chart when it declines, which is a counter-trend operation. We just need to prevent a real breakout of the neckline from turning into a false breakout, meaning we should not regain 92500.
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2025/02/23 The crypto market is in danger!
The neckline of the total market value of cryptocurrency is 3.11T. After repeated pin-point breaks in the past, it was quickly recovered and rebounded away from the neckline. However, it has been more than 20 days since the market broke through the neckline on February 3, and the market is still entangled in the neckline position, breaking and recovering back and forth. In the last 20 trading days, there were only 3 days when the neckline was not touched. This time the performance was completely different from the previous times when the neckline was touched, and the bulls appeared to be very weak.
From the perspective of technical structure, although the bulls tried to hold this key position, the volume was obviously insufficient and the market lacked confidence. If it cannot accelerate upward and away from the neckline, once the bullish volume is exhausted, the bears will give the bulls a fatal blow at any time, and may retrace to the previous high of around 2.59T.
From the perspective of technical structure, although the bulls tried to hold this key position, the volume was obviously insufficient and the market lacked confidence. If it cannot accelerate upward and away from the neckline, once the bullish volume is exhausted, the bears will give the bulls a fatal blow at any time, and may retrace to the previous high of around 2.59T.
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2025/02/20 The Illusion of Institutional Buying and Retail Selling
There are often voices in the market claiming that institutions are buying while retail investors are selling, with funds continuously flowing out of exchanges, and Bitcoin is about to experience a big market! However, this is just a huge lie.
The so-called institutional buying mainly refers to MicroStrategy and BTC ETFs. MicroStrategy currently holds about 400,000 Bitcoins, but recently it has faced difficulties in fundraising, having to promote to investors by raising interest to 9% and offering discounts.
Regardless of whether these investors are retail or large companies, whether MicroStrategy can continue to raise more funds in the future has become a huge question mark, and its stock price has fallen by 40% from its peak!
The so-called institutional buying mainly refers to MicroStrategy and BTC ETFs. MicroStrategy currently holds about 400,000 Bitcoins, but recently it has faced difficulties in fundraising, having to promote to investors by raising interest to 9% and offering discounts.
Regardless of whether these investors are retail or large companies, whether MicroStrategy can continue to raise more funds in the future has become a huge question mark, and its stock price has fallen by 40% from its peak!
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Best time to pick up bargains on 2025/02/19
The above chart is my recent operations: this is the recent opening record. I opened shorts at 105000, and added to my position every time the price dropped by 2%, accumulating 6 times. During the process, two records were lost for some reason (96844, 94907), and finally, I replenished all positions at 92980.
Followed the mainstream rebound of altcoins. A few days ago, I reopened shorts at 97500 and added more shorts in batches as it went down.
Next, let's talk about when we can really enter to pick up bargains. This requires paying attention to two important indicators.
The above chart is the first indicator: the Fear and Greed Index. From the chart, it can be seen that an extreme fear state with an index below 20 appears about once a year, with the most recent occurrence in mid-2022. Each time the index falls below 20, entering and positioning in spot usually yields good returns within six months. Therefore, patiently waiting for the index to fall below 20 to enter will achieve the best cost-performance ratio.
Followed the mainstream rebound of altcoins. A few days ago, I reopened shorts at 97500 and added more shorts in batches as it went down.
Next, let's talk about when we can really enter to pick up bargains. This requires paying attention to two important indicators.
The above chart is the first indicator: the Fear and Greed Index. From the chart, it can be seen that an extreme fear state with an index below 20 appears about once a year, with the most recent occurrence in mid-2022. Each time the index falls below 20, entering and positioning in spot usually yields good returns within six months. Therefore, patiently waiting for the index to fall below 20 to enter will achieve the best cost-performance ratio.
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2025/02/18 ETH Target Price
In previous articles dated 2025/02/18, it was mentioned that the target price for BTC is around 71000~72000, which represents a correction of about 30%.
Typically, ETH's decline is twice that of BTC, and according to technical analysis, if the price breaks below again, it will fall to 1150, reflecting a decline of approximately 60%, echoing BTC's double decline.
#Market analysis is for reference only #Does not constitute investment advice
#Bitcoin #BTC #ETH #SOL #JJ Bitcoin Channel
In previous articles dated 2025/02/18, it was mentioned that the target price for BTC is around 71000~72000, which represents a correction of about 30%.
Typically, ETH's decline is twice that of BTC, and according to technical analysis, if the price breaks below again, it will fall to 1150, reflecting a decline of approximately 60%, echoing BTC's double decline.
#Market analysis is for reference only #Does not constitute investment advice
#Bitcoin #BTC #ETH #SOL #JJ Bitcoin Channel
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2025/02/18 The Altcoin Season is Here!
Whenever the market echoes such sentiments, I can't help but think of this image. Whenever ETH experiences a brief rally, retail investors will flood in, secretly shouting to themselves: The altcoin season is here!
This time it won't be a scam, right?
This time it’s for real, right?
I've finally waited for this!
When the excitement fades and the market returns to a downward trend, everyone will start searching for bloggers who share their views to strengthen their beliefs. However, with the market deceiving us time and again, bloggers continuously hype things up, only for our wallets to shrink again and again!
In the past two years, aside from the cryptocurrencies ranked in the top 10 to 20 by market cap, over 99.99% of altcoins have consistently hit new lows. Even if there was passion once, it all disappeared like a fleeting moment, turning into nothingness.
Maybe when the next wave of excitement arrives, you’ll think this time is really different, but the outcome... remains the same.
Periodic history will repeat itself, but it can only serve as a reference and should not be taken as faith. So-called positive news is often just a means for the major players to offload their assets.
#Market analysis for reference only #Not investment advice
#Bitcoin #BTC #ETH #SOL #JJBitcoinChannel
Whenever the market echoes such sentiments, I can't help but think of this image. Whenever ETH experiences a brief rally, retail investors will flood in, secretly shouting to themselves: The altcoin season is here!
This time it won't be a scam, right?
This time it’s for real, right?
I've finally waited for this!
When the excitement fades and the market returns to a downward trend, everyone will start searching for bloggers who share their views to strengthen their beliefs. However, with the market deceiving us time and again, bloggers continuously hype things up, only for our wallets to shrink again and again!
In the past two years, aside from the cryptocurrencies ranked in the top 10 to 20 by market cap, over 99.99% of altcoins have consistently hit new lows. Even if there was passion once, it all disappeared like a fleeting moment, turning into nothingness.
Maybe when the next wave of excitement arrives, you’ll think this time is really different, but the outcome... remains the same.
Periodic history will repeat itself, but it can only serve as a reference and should not be taken as faith. So-called positive news is often just a means for the major players to offload their assets.
#Market analysis for reference only #Not investment advice
#Bitcoin #BTC #ETH #SOL #JJBitcoinChannel
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2025/02/17 BTC’s range-bound decline
Rather than talking about the bull market in the cryptocurrency world this time, it is better to say that it is the bull market of the top ten coins by market value.
OTHER.D is the market capitalization share of altcoins other than the top ten coins by market capitalization. After reaching its peak in January 2022, it has been in a major correction for two years. It has now fallen below the upward trend line for the past nine years. You can say that the past two years have been a bear market, or you can say that it has been a bull correction!
Several popular currencies that have supported the cryptocurrency market in the past:
SUI: Broke two trend lines in a row and is about to enter the third interval
AAVE: Broke two trend lines in a row and has now entered the third range
ONDO: Broke two trend lines in a row and has now entered the third interval
Finally, let’s take a look at the performance of BTC. It has fallen below the first trend line and entered the second interval. It has not been able to recover for 12 days.
Although it is common to break below the upward trend line during a strong rise, the large transfer of 122,000 bitcoins on 12/6 mentioned in the previous articles has not yet resulted in an obvious sell-off, and USDT.D has reached a reversal point, indicating that BTC may have peaked. In the future, there is a high probability that BTC will make up for the decline and often move closer to the second largest range of the yellow trend line!
#Marketanalysis is for reference only#Doesnot constitute investment advice#Bitcoin#BTC#ETH#SOL #JJBitChannel
Rather than talking about the bull market in the cryptocurrency world this time, it is better to say that it is the bull market of the top ten coins by market value.
OTHER.D is the market capitalization share of altcoins other than the top ten coins by market capitalization. After reaching its peak in January 2022, it has been in a major correction for two years. It has now fallen below the upward trend line for the past nine years. You can say that the past two years have been a bear market, or you can say that it has been a bull correction!
Several popular currencies that have supported the cryptocurrency market in the past:
SUI: Broke two trend lines in a row and is about to enter the third interval
AAVE: Broke two trend lines in a row and has now entered the third range
ONDO: Broke two trend lines in a row and has now entered the third interval
Finally, let’s take a look at the performance of BTC. It has fallen below the first trend line and entered the second interval. It has not been able to recover for 12 days.
Although it is common to break below the upward trend line during a strong rise, the large transfer of 122,000 bitcoins on 12/6 mentioned in the previous articles has not yet resulted in an obvious sell-off, and USDT.D has reached a reversal point, indicating that BTC may have peaked. In the future, there is a high probability that BTC will make up for the decline and often move closer to the second largest range of the yellow trend line!
#Marketanalysis is for reference only#Doesnot constitute investment advice#Bitcoin#BTC#ETH#SOL #JJBitChannel
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2025/02/16 BTC Will At Least Experience a 30% Pullback
Every time USDT.D tests the trend line (marked in yellow circles), BTC has experienced at least a 30% pullback, without exception!
BTC has already broken below the red upward trend line on the 11th day. If it pulls back by 30%, it will return to the yellow trend line, which is around the $70,000 level, where it also coincides with the previous high and a dense trading volume area.
The area between $97,500 and $70,000 is considered a low-volume vacuum trading zone. Once the market officially starts to decline, the speed will be very fast.
#Market analysis for reference only #Does not constitute investment advice
#Bitcoin #BTC #ETH #SOL #JJ Bitcoin Channel
Every time USDT.D tests the trend line (marked in yellow circles), BTC has experienced at least a 30% pullback, without exception!
BTC has already broken below the red upward trend line on the 11th day. If it pulls back by 30%, it will return to the yellow trend line, which is around the $70,000 level, where it also coincides with the previous high and a dense trading volume area.
The area between $97,500 and $70,000 is considered a low-volume vacuum trading zone. Once the market officially starts to decline, the speed will be very fast.
#Market analysis for reference only #Does not constitute investment advice
#Bitcoin #BTC #ETH #SOL #JJ Bitcoin Channel
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