The above chart is my recent operations: this is the recent opening record. I opened shorts at 105000, and added to my position every time the price dropped by 2%, accumulating 6 times. During the process, two records were lost for some reason (96844, 94907), and finally, I replenished all positions at 92980.

Followed the mainstream rebound of altcoins. A few days ago, I reopened shorts at 97500 and added more shorts in batches as it went down.

Next, let's talk about when we can really enter to pick up bargains. This requires paying attention to two important indicators.

The above chart is the first indicator: the Fear and Greed Index. From the chart, it can be seen that an extreme fear state with an index below 20 appears about once a year, with the most recent occurrence in mid-2022. Each time the index falls below 20, entering and positioning in spot usually yields good returns within six months. Therefore, patiently waiting for the index to fall below 20 to enter will achieve the best cost-performance ratio.

The above chart is the second indicator: the proportion of USDT.D in the cryptocurrency market. The candlesticks in the chart represent USDT.D, equivalent to the USDT reserve level in the crypto space, while the purple line shows the trend of Bitcoin. When the reserve level drops to the blue trend line, it means that market reserves have fallen below a safe level, lacking the momentum for further increases. In the past 9 years, there have been 8 instances where reserves dropped to this safe level, followed by Bitcoin prices falling by 30% to more than 50%. This time, reserves have again fallen below the safe level, and Bitcoin has not experienced a significant drop for a long time, so going long here poses extremely high risks.

The above chart shows the cycle changes during past Bitcoin halving periods. The red line indicates the halving date, and most analysts focus on the blue volatility patterns and time cycles. However, this is a weekly candlestick chart using a logarithmic relationship, where a few candlesticks represent several weeks of time. The small fluctuations during the process often amount to a drop of 30% to 50%, yet these subtle fluctuations are often overlooked by analysts.

Although it can generally be judged that the big direction of each range may first reach a high, then pull back, and then rise again, a slight difference of a few candlesticks can mean a time difference of several weeks, and the minute fluctuations are numerous; these subtle fluctuations are irregular, and the only regularity is that they happen from time to time!

Looking back at the previous bull markets, various subtle fluctuations have emerged endlessly, but recently they have rarely appeared. Therefore, even if there are a few more irregular fluctuations in the future, they will still conform to the general directional rules.

Finally, let's look at Chart 5, which shows the growth trend of altcoins. In the previous bull market, there were less than 500 altcoins; during the last bull market, the number of altcoins grew to 3000; and in this bull market, the number of altcoins has skyrocketed to 36.4 million, and the growth rate is still rapidly increasing.

However, such a large number of altcoins currently account for less than 40% of the market's capital share, which is why most altcoins perform poorly. Also, due to the inherent fragility of altcoins and the meager amount of capital allocated, once the overall market declines, funds are more likely to flow into Bitcoin for hedging, which will create a huge vampire effect on altcoins. Therefore, if Bitcoin inevitably experiences a significant correction that hasn't occurred in a long time, the prices of altcoins may fall to extremely low levels, as the saying goes: there is no lowest, only lower!

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#Market analysis for reference only #Does not constitute investment advice

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