The neckline of the total market value of cryptocurrency is 3.11T. After repeated pin-point breaks in the past, it was quickly recovered and rebounded away from the neckline. However, it has been more than 20 days since the market broke through the neckline on February 3, and the market is still entangled in the neckline position, breaking and recovering back and forth. In the last 20 trading days, there were only 3 days when the neckline was not touched. This time the performance was completely different from the previous times when the neckline was touched, and the bulls appeared to be very weak.
From the perspective of technical structure, although the bulls tried to hold this key position, the volume was obviously insufficient and the market lacked confidence. If it cannot accelerate upward and away from the neckline, once the bullish volume is exhausted, the bears will give the bulls a fatal blow at any time, and may retrace to the previous high of around 2.59T.
Let’s look at the exchange rate between the Japanese yen and the US dollar. The rapid appreciation of the Japanese yen in August last year caused the U.S. stock market to be halted, triggering a global stock market crash and the cryptocurrency market also suffered a severe collapse. Now the Japanese yen is showing a rapid appreciation trend, which led to a sharp drop in the U.S. stock index last Friday.
Next, let’s look at the situation of Bitcoin ETF. The recent continuous outflow of funds has caused the Bitcoin trend to be weak.
The yellow line in the figure represents the price trend of Bitcoin, the blue curve is the cumulative inflow of Bitcoin ETF, and the red curve is the 10-day cumulative average inflow. When the cumulative inflow (blue line) is lower than the 10-day average inflow (red line) for several consecutive days, the yellow curve of Bitcoin price tends to experience a significant drop. Now the blue curve has been below the red 10-day moving average for the seventh consecutive day, and it is expected to bring about a larger decline.
Finally, let’s take a look at the relationship diagram between USDT.D and Bitcoin that has been mentioned many times before. When USDT.D's K-line falls back to the blue trend line, Bitcoin's purple line tends to drop by more than 30% to 70%. This time is very similar to the situation in March 2021. The weekly K-line has fallen back to near the trend line for 100 days, and the volume has increased.
Taking all the above signs into consideration, we can once again echo the theme at the beginning: “The crypto market is in danger!”
#Market analysis is for reference only#Doesnot constitute investment advice
#Bitcoin#BTC#ETH#SOL#JJBitChannel
