There are often voices in the market claiming that institutions are buying while retail investors are selling, with funds continuously flowing out of exchanges, and Bitcoin is about to experience a big market! However, this is just a huge lie.

The so-called institutional buying mainly refers to MicroStrategy and BTC ETFs. MicroStrategy currently holds about 400,000 Bitcoins, but recently it has faced difficulties in fundraising, having to promote to investors by raising interest to 9% and offering discounts.


Regardless of whether these investors are retail or large companies, whether MicroStrategy can continue to raise more funds in the future has become a huge question mark, and its stock price has fallen by 40% from its peak!

As for the BTC ETF, data shows that before last year, institutional ETFs had significantly increased their Bitcoin holdings.

However, up to 76% of the holders are retail investors. In other words, the so-called institutions are merely retail investors from Wall Street. Additionally, since the Bitcoins purchased by institutional ETFs are transferred out of exchanges and stored in institutional cold wallets, the decrease in Bitcoin exchange reserves is not due to whales hoarding but simply a change in storage method.

The data supporting this view comes from the long-term investor stock chart, which shows that since last year, big players have continuously taken profits, and the quantity of Bitcoin has been decreasing.

Therefore, the conclusion is clear: the so-called institutional buying and retail selling is just an illusion.

In fact, it's 'big players are reducing their holdings while retail investors are buying in.'

However, this is not a reason to be bearish in the long term, as long-term investors always start selling and transferring to retail investors a year in advance; the market's momentum still relies on retail investors' buying to create a peak.

This is just correcting the misconceptions in the market; currently, the outlook for Bitcoin is a sharp decline followed by a 30% correction and then a rise.

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Market analysis is for reference only #not investment advice

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