jiamiying

BTC: As of April 29, 2025, the current price of BTC is $94,900; from a daily perspective, yesterday's closing pattern was a "small bullish candle," with average trading volume, indicating that bulls are dominant but momentum is limited.

On-chain data shows that the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of 6,310 BTC (approximately $591 million) yesterday, with institutional confidence continuing to strengthen, but the Bitcoin turnover rate is relatively low, reflecting cautious market sentiment.

On the macro level, on April 29, 2025, the state legislature passed Senate Bill SB1373 by a vote of 37 to 19, achieving the first joint approval of Bitcoin strategic reserves by the U.S. state-level House of Representatives and Senate. The bill has now been submitted to Governor Hobbs, who has five working days (until May 6) to decide its fate. Additionally, the U.S. GDP data set to be released on April 30 will likely trigger volatility, prompting some players to adopt a wait-and-see approach to avoid risks.

In summary, Bitcoin's current price is receiving strong support in the range of $92,000 to $97,000, with a high concentration of chips and a solid market foundation. On April 28, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of 6,310 BTC (approximately $591 million), with institutional confidence continuing to rise. However, the long-short ratio is relatively low, reflecting insufficient market momentum, and it may maintain a volatile pattern in the short term. While there is hope for a challenge to new highs this week, daily technical indicators show signs of fatigue, raising doubts about sustained upward momentum. If the market remains strong, it may enter a consolidation phase; if momentum weakens, Bitcoin may face a certain degree of correction.

The information and data in this content are sourced from publicly available materials, striving for accuracy and reliability, but no guarantee is made regarding the accuracy and completeness of the information. This content does not constitute investment advice, and any investment based on it is at your own risk.

BTC: As of April 28, 2025, the current price of BTC is $94,500; from a daily perspective, yesterday's closing pattern was a "small bearish candle," indicating that market activity was insufficient due to low liquidity over the weekend, making it of limited reference significance. The weekly chart, however, closed with a "large bullish candle," accompanied by a certain volume, suggesting that bullish forces still dominate.

On-chain data shows that Bitcoin's trading volume and turnover rate were sluggish over the weekend, with low participation, reflecting a cautious market sentiment.

On the macro level, multiple variables will influence BTC's trend this week. The earnings reports from the four major tech companies and MicroStrategy will trigger market volatility, especially since MicroStrategy is a firm holder of Bitcoin; its earnings performance significantly impacts market confidence. Additionally, the first quarter GDP and March PCE price index data from the United States will be released, which will cause fluctuations in the dollar, indirectly affecting BTC prices. If the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Bill in Arizona is passed, it will bring long-term benefits to BTC, but in the short term, it may also exacerbate market volatility.

Overall, Bitcoin's upward momentum this week is limited; even if there is a brief spike, its sustainability may not be strong. This week's trend may present a "rise then fall" pattern. In the next three weeks, the market may experience a certain degree of correction, but the extent of the correction is expected to be limited. For trendline traders, the correction may be a once-in-a-lifetime excellent opportunity.

The information and data in this content are sourced from publicly available materials, striving for accuracy and reliability, but no guarantees are made regarding the accuracy and completeness of the information. This content does not constitute investment advice, and any investment made based on it is at your own risk.

BTC: As of April 25, 2025, the current price of BTC is $93,700; observing from the daily chart, yesterday's high close pattern appears to resemble a 'hanging man,' indicating a hesitant market attitude, suggesting that a significant amount of selling activity may have occurred.

On-chain data shows that a net inflow of $442 million into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs occurred yesterday, and institutional funds remain optimistic about the future market; however, turnover rate has decreased, indicating a reduction in market activity. According to URPD on-chain data, $96,300 serves as a strong resistance level, while $91,600 is a key support level. The current price is repeatedly contesting around $94,000.

On a macro level, the U.S. announced tariff reductions on some auto parts from Long Brother, which was followed by Long Brother's response regarding reduced tariffs on certain U.S. semiconductors and components. These messages have effectively alleviated market concerns over the trade war, boosting the cryptocurrency market. U.S. GDP and PCE data will be released on April 30, which is expected to have a significant impact on market sentiment.

Overall, based on URPD data, $96,300 is a strong resistance level for BTC, while $91,600 is an important support level. The current BTC price is repeatedly contesting around $94,000; without significant positive stimuli, Bitcoin may continue to fluctuate within the range of $91,600 to $94,500 in the short term. The upcoming release of U.S. GDP and PCE data on April 30 will be crucial in influencing market sentiment.

The information and data contained in this content are sourced from publicly available materials, striving for accuracy and reliability, but no guarantees are made regarding the accuracy and completeness of the information. This content does not constitute investment advice, and any investments made based on it are at your own risk.

BTC: As of April 22, 2025, the current price of BTC is $88,400; the daily chart shows some bullish momentum. The closing pattern yesterday was a "small bullish candle," and the trading volume increased compared to the previous day, indicating a rise in market participation.

On-chain data shows that the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of 4,479 BTC (approximately $381 million) yesterday, reflecting institutional big players' confidence in the market. There was no significant loosening in the chip distribution in the $85,000 to $86,000 range, and the sentiment of long-term holders in the $92,000 to $97,000 range remains stable, with limited short-term selling pressure.

On the macro level, although U.S. stocks are under pressure due to economic concerns, Bitcoin is strengthening against the trend, showcasing strong independent performance. The weakening U.S. dollar index also adds support for the rise. However, the upcoming Q1 GDP data at the end of the month may trigger market volatility, which requires close monitoring.

In summary, considering the recent net inflow of $381 million into the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF yesterday, combined with the weakening U.S. dollar index and a low long-short ratio, the short-term outlook is bullish. Currently, Bitcoin is challenging the 200-day moving average and may temporarily rise to the resistance range of $91,700 to $92,200 in the short term. If successful in breaking through, the price may briefly spike to $96,000, but this position is very likely to trigger another significant pullback.

The information and data in this content are sourced from publicly available materials, aiming for accuracy and reliability, but no guarantees are made regarding the accuracy and completeness of the information. This content does not constitute investment advice, and any investment made based on it is at your own risk.

BTC: As of April 21, 2025, the current price of BTC is $87,700; from the daily level, yesterday's closing pattern was a "star line" accompanied by a long lower shadow, indicating strong support below, with trading volume increasing compared to the previous day, showing an increase in market participation. The current price successfully stands above the 60-day moving average, but is under pressure from the 200-day moving average, indicating overall bullish strength.

On-chain data shows that last Sunday, the Bitcoin turnover rate hit a recent low (16,000 BTC/24 hours), reflecting insufficient market activity, but the support at $85,000 remains solid, and player confidence has not collapsed.

On a macro level, the market has shifted its focus to the upcoming release of the Q1 2025 GDP data this week, which will provide clear guidance for "recession trades." This week, tech giants Tesla and Alphabet will respectively release their earnings reports after the market closes on Tuesday and Thursday, and their performances may cause market fluctuations, affecting Bitcoin and other risk assets. The appointment of the new SEC chairman brings new hope for the crypto industry. The repeal of SAB 121 demonstrates a more friendly regulatory attitude. It is expected that in Q3 2025, the policies regarding spot Ethereum ETF staking will become clear, with a high possibility of approval.

Overall, there is a turning point in Bitcoin's technical outlook. On Monday morning, a large bullish candle broke through the 60-day moving average, but the 200-day moving average poses resistance. The short-term long-short ratio is relatively low, and the weakening US dollar index supports Bitcoin's further upward movement, targeting $88,000 to $92,200. The madman believes that macroeconomic uncertainty limits the upside potential, and this round is more likely a rebound rather than a reversal. If the resistance at $92,200 is not broken, the price may fall back to the range of $74,500 to $80,000.

The information and data in this content are sourced from publicly available materials, striving for accuracy and reliability, but no guarantee is made regarding the accuracy and completeness of the information. This content does not constitute investment advice, and any investment based on it is at your own risk.

BTC: As of April 12, 2025, the current price of BTC is $84,500; from the daily level, yesterday closed with a 'small bearish candle', and the trading volume was average, indicating limited market participation; at the weekly level, it closed with a 'medium bullish candle', and the volume has increased, showing that the bullish forces hold a certain advantage.

On-chain data indicates that the low liquidity over the weekend has led to increased price volatility, but the short-term upward oscillation trend continues.

On the macro level, the recent decline of the US dollar index has provided some support for Bitcoin. However, the misalignment of policy signals from the Trump team (such as the repeated rumors of a 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariffs) has increased market uncertainty. If the US dollar index continues to weaken, combined with the potential impact of GDP data at the end of this month, it could bring more upward momentum for Bitcoin.

Overall, Bitcoin still has the potential for further short-term increases, but it is currently only viewed as a technical rebound after an oversold condition; a trend reversal requires more confirmation.

The information and data in this content are sourced from publicly available materials, aiming for accuracy and reliability, but no guarantees are made regarding the accuracy and completeness of the information. This content does not constitute investment advice, and any investment made based on it is at your own risk.

BTC: As of April 10, 2025, the current price of BTC is $81,500; a "big bullish candle" was formed at the daily level, with significantly increased trading volume, indicating a clear strengthening of bullish forces.

On-chain data shows that the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF experienced a net outflow of 1,667 BTC (worth $127 million) yesterday, reflecting cautious institutional sentiment and ongoing selling pressure. However, chips below $82,000 are accelerating concentration, initially forming a phase of bottom support, and some players are shifting towards long-term holdings, indicating a recovery in market confidence.

At the macro level, adjustments to Trump's tariff policy have brought a 90-day buffer period to the market, warming risk appetite, but the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicate low expectations for interest rate cuts, with economic data in May and June becoming key.

Overall, for Bitcoin, there is still room for upward movement in the short term, but it is currently more of a rebound nature. At this stage, it is wise to take profits on rebounds! The reversal conditions have not yet matured. While player sentiment has somewhat recovered, early holders remain mostly on the sidelines, and the market still needs more catalysts to break the deadlock. The April market is destined not to be one-sided, with event-driven developments becoming the main theme.

The information and data in this content are sourced from publicly available materials and strive for accuracy and reliability, but no guarantees are made regarding the accuracy and completeness of the information. This content does not constitute investment advice; any investments made based on it are at your own risk.

BTC: As of April 9, 2025, the current price of BTC is $77,300; a small bearish candle with an upper shadow was formed on the daily chart, and trading volume has decreased compared to the previous day, indicating that bearish forces currently have the upper hand.

On-chain data shows that the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of 4,123 coins yesterday, worth $326 million, reflecting cautious sentiment among institutional players and increased selling pressure. The market turnover rate has declined, which may be related to the brief warming of sentiment the previous day. URPD data indicates that the number of holders in the $92,000 to $97,000 range decreased by only 5,000 BTC, showing that long-term holders are not in panic, while players around the $83,000 mark have experienced significant losses and exited the market, with short-term selling pressure mainly coming from short-term holders.

On a macro level, the escalation of the U.S.-China trade war and the implementation of a 104% tariff has heightened market risk aversion, causing the VIX to spike to 57.52, with both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 turning negative. The market's expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates five times in 2025 has risen, but historical experience shows that the Fed is more focused on inflation than recession; unless the GDP data at the end of April is extremely poor, the probability of a rate cut in May is low.

In summary, if tariff policies continue to be high-pressure tonight, Bitcoin may further decline; if the tax rate eases, it may stabilize and rebound above $74,500.

The information and data contained in this content are sourced from publicly available materials, striving for accuracy and reliability, but no guarantees are made regarding the accuracy and completeness of the information. This content does not constitute investment advice, and any investments made based on it are at your own risk.

BTC: As of April 7, 2025, the current price of BTC is $75,200; a weekly candlestick showed a bearish candle with an upper shadow, indicating significant selling pressure above; a daily candlestick showed a large bearish candle with average volume, indicating notable selling pressure above and a dominant bearish sentiment. Although the trading volume did not significantly enlarge, the volume performance remained stable, showing that the market's selling sentiment is relatively restrained, mainly due to the exit of short-term players rather than large-scale liquidation by institutions.

On-chain data shows that this decline did not trigger large-scale capital flows, with a low turnover rate, and selling mainly came from the existing Bitcoin on platforms. Especially, short-term players who bought the dip in the last two days became the main force exiting the market.

On a macro level, the implementation of a 10% tariff policy (compared to the average 2.5% tariff in the US in 2024) combined with weak US stock futures has heightened market risk aversion. Key points to watch in the future include: first, the market reaction after the implementation of the tariff policy; second, the performance of US GDP data at the end of the month.

In summary, Bitcoin's short-term trend is bearish. As long as the US economy does not head into recession, Bitcoin may find a temporary bottom around $65,000, a position that not only has technical significance but may also represent a 'safety line' in players' psychological expectations. However, on-chain liquidity has not significantly increased, indicating that market panic has not yet reached its peak, and the true bottom may still be in the making.

Position allocation suggestion: Long-term BTC should occupy 50% of the total position;

The information and data in this content are sourced from publicly available materials, striving for accuracy and reliability, but no guarantee is made regarding the accuracy and completeness of the information. This content does not constitute investment advice, and any investment based on it is at your own risk.

BTC: As of April 3, 2025, the current price of BTC is $83,700; the daily candlestick has formed a small bearish candle with a long upper shadow, and trading volume has significantly increased, indicating heavy selling pressure above.

On-chain data shows that the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of 2,562 BTC (valued at $218 million) yesterday, indicating that institutions still have some confidence, but turnover rate has slightly increased, and selling pressure remains above $88,000.

On a macro level, the uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy adds gloom to the market. If the policy is implemented as planned on April 9, the 10% base tariff and reciprocal adjustments could trigger a crisis, with inflationary pressures and supply chain risks further impacting the crypto market.

Overall, Bitcoin is likely to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term, while being cautious of fluctuations in risk aversion triggered by trade crises. Unless there are significant negative factors, a rebound can still be expected, but the difficulty of operation has significantly increased.

The information and data in this content are sourced from publicly available materials, striving for accuracy and reliability, but no guarantee is made regarding the accuracy and completeness of the information. This content does not constitute investment advice, and any investment based on it is at your own risk.

BTC: As of April 2, 2025, the current price of BTC is $84,200; the daily chart has formed a "small bullish candle," and trading volume has increased compared to the previous day, showing a slight recovery in bullish sentiment.

On-chain data shows that the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF had a net outflow of 1,912 coins (approximately $158 million) yesterday, indicating that institutional funds remain cautious. The turnover rate has slightly increased, and there are clear signs of short-term players taking profits, while players with a cost basis below $90,000 dominate; their exit behavior is more of a hedge against tariff risks.

On a macro level, GDPNow predicts that the U.S. GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2025 will plummet to -3.7%, compounded by the uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policy announcement on April 3, which continues to suppress market sentiment.

Overall, the short-term rebound in Bitcoin is more of a technical correction rather than a trend reversal.

The information and data in this content are sourced from publicly available materials, striving for accuracy and reliability, but no guarantees are made regarding the accuracy and completeness of the information. This content does not constitute investment advice; investing based on this information is at your own risk.

BTC: As of March 28, 2025, the current price of BTC is $85,000; the daily chart has formed a "spinning top" for three consecutive days, indicating insufficient upward momentum, with volume continuously shrinking and market sentiment being low.
On-chain data shows that the net inflow of Bitcoin ETFs in the US yesterday was 1,024 BTC (approximately $8.9 million), indicating that institutional funds still have confidence, but trading volume has fallen below the lows of 2023-2024, with turnover rates also declining, leading to a strong wait-and-see sentiment among investors. URPD data indicates that the accumulation of chips in the $83,700-$85,500 range has intensified, and the market is building strength for directional selection.
On the macro level, the core PCE data to be released tonight at 20:30 (previous value 2.6%, expected 2.7%) will become a watershed for short-term trends. If the data exceeds expectations, inflationary pressures may intensify market risk aversion, putting Bitcoin under downward pressure; if the data falls below expectations, it may boost confidence and lead to a rebound. Today's decline is partly influenced by rumors of automobile tariffs, compounded by the market's cautious attitude towards the PCE and the University of Michigan's inflation expectations (4.9%). Next week's tariff implementation and employment data will further impact the trend.
In summary, Bitcoin's short-term trend is weak, with a focus on the daily 30-day moving average at the $85,000 level. If it holds, we can expect stabilization and a continued rebound; conversely, if it fails to hold, further declines may occur, potentially creating new lows in the future.

BTC: As of March 27, 2025, the current price of BTC is $87,300; on the daily chart, yesterday formed a "spinning top," indicating hesitation between bulls and bears in the high-level contest, with low trading volume reflecting insufficient market participation. On-chain data shows that the net inflow of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF yesterday was 1,026 coins, worth $89.6 million, indicating that institutional funds still provide some support; the chip distribution over the past 24 hours shows that the behavior of entering at the low of $80,000 and exiting at the high of $87,000 is decreasing. This suggests that market participants are becoming more cautious at the current price level. On a macro level, the core PCE and University of Michigan inflation expectation data will be released this Friday; the current market is still dominated by event-driven volatility. The final implementation of tariff policies, the performance of April GDP data, and the next steps of the Federal Reserve will all be key variables determining BTC's trend. In summary, Bitcoin has failed to effectively break through the resistance level of $88,500 and is currently oscillating between $85,000 and $88,500. With the core PCE and University of Michigan inflation expectation data set to be released this Friday, volatility is expected to increase tomorrow night, with another attempt to push above $88,500.

BTC: As of March 26, 2025, the current price of BTC is $88,000; on the daily chart, yesterday formed a 'Doji', and although the trading volume is not high, this often serves as a signal for accumulation after a trend adjustment.
On-chain data shows that the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of 306 BTC (valued at $26.8 million) yesterday, reflecting that institutional funds still maintain a certain level of confidence. Bitcoin remains strong in the dense trading area between $93,000 and $97,000, with selling pressure gradually dissipating. The active participation of short-term bottom-fishing funds has driven an increase in trading volume.
On a macro level, if the core PCE and Michigan University inflation expectations data to be released this Friday show moderate results, limited tariff measures, a potential ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and mild inflation expectations, there is still room for Bitcoin's rebound to continue.
Overall, although Bitcoin faces some resistance at high levels in the short term, after adjustment, upward momentum is expected to gradually be released.

BTC: As of March 24, 2025, the current price of BTC is $87,000; on the daily level, a "small bullish candle" was formed yesterday. Although the trading volume was not large, the daily chart has now risen above the 30-day moving average; this lays a foundation for a short-term rebound.
On-chain data shows that the turnover rate remains sluggish, comparable to the low point in 2023, and the dense range of chips between $93,000 and $97,000 has not loosened, indicating that short-term risks are controllable.
On the macro level, as we approach the end of March, core PCE and Michigan University data are about to be released, but since they only reflect February's situation and the Federal Reserve has attributed inflation to tariffs, market attention is relatively low. Starting in April, the complexity of the crypto market may increase, and external variables must be monitored for potential impacts.
In summary, Bitcoin has short-term rebound momentum due to overselling, but the likelihood of effectively stabilizing above the 120-day moving average is low. The period before April 15 is a critical window; if the rebound lacks accompanying volume, it may evolve into a consolidation adjustment.

BTC: As of March 14, 2025, the current price of Bitcoin is $82,000. Yesterday, a small bearish candle was formed at the daily level, with low trading volume, indicating low market participation. The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of 1,616 coins (approximately $135 million) yesterday, reflecting continued capital withdrawal, compounded by the sentiment index remaining in a state of panic, leading to insufficient market confidence.
On a macro level, the result of the temporary funding bill at dawn on March 15 will directly affect market sentiment. If it is not passed, low liquidity over the weekend may exacerbate volatility, with small amounts of capital potentially triggering sell-offs or rallies.
Overall, Bitcoin may maintain a range-bound adjustment, and a clear direction must wait for the Federal Reserve's dot plot guidance at 02:00 Beijing time on March 20. If reversal conditions are not met, the current rebound may struggle to sustain.

BTC: As of March 13, 2025, the current price of Bitcoin is $83,300. Yesterday, a "spinning top" candlestick was formed at the daily level, with volume showing a lackluster performance, indicating that the market's bullish and bearish forces are currently in a state of balance. The net inflow of 160 Bitcoin in the US spot Bitcoin ETF yesterday, valued at approximately $13.3 million, indicates that funds are flowing in slowly but steadily, providing some support for short-term prices.
In terms of macroeconomics, tonight's PPI data will impact market sentiment; if it comes in below expectations, it may drive Bitcoin to continue its oscillating upward trend. Next week, the Fed's dot plot will reveal the interest rate path, which is crucial for Bitcoin. Historical trends show that BTC often experiences a corrective rally driven by a decline in VIX (currently stabilizing) and positive news (such as ETF inflows), but the range of $93,000-$97,000 has not collapsed, indicating an increase in long-term holders and a reduction in short-term downward pressure.
Overall, Bitcoin is currently in a phase of oscillation and correction; if tonight's PPI data is favorable, it may rebound further upward, but a reversal still requires more confirmation.

BTC: As of March 12, 2025, the current price of Bitcoin is $82,500, with yesterday's daily candlestick forming a 'medium bullish candle' accompanied by volume, indicating signs of a rebound in the market after filling the URPD gap at $76,600. However, there was a net outflow of 4,722 Bitcoins from the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF yesterday, valued at approximately $371 million, reflecting that institutional funds remain cautious.

From a technical analysis perspective, after filling the URPD gap, historical data indicates that prices often enter a consolidation phase. The probability of a decline in the short term is relatively low, but a rebound above $83,700 may face selling pressure. On a macro level, the 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine (announced today) eases geopolitical tensions and may inject liquidity into the market; however, the volatility of Trump's tariff policies could exacerbate inflation expectations, limiting the upside potential.

In summary, I believe BTC is currently in a phase of oversold rebound rather than a trend reversal, and the bottom still needs further confirmation.

BTC: Yesterday, the daily candlestick formed a "small bearish candle" with a long upper shadow, indicating significant selling pressure above $84,000, accompanied by considerable volume, showing strong market selling power.

Overall, considering macro data, the net outflow of 3,450 bitcoins (approximately $278 million) from the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF yesterday reflects a cautious attitude from institutional funds; the long-short ratio is above 2.6, indicating that long positions are too high, and any short-term rebound from oversold conditions may be limited, or it may only be a dead cat bounce. It has not yet hit the bottom, suggesting that there may still be room for decline. Historically, Bitcoin shows obvious characteristics of a local bear market, and the bottom may not yet be determined.

BTC: Both the weekly and daily levels have closed with a 'large bearish candle,' and trading volume has increased, indicating significant selling pressure and a bearish market dominance.

Overall, from a technical perspective, after the weekly chart's second test of the bottom, there may be an oversold rebound aimed at squeezing the shorts. However, a rebound does not equate to a reversal, as there is strong resistance around the $94,000 mark that is hard to break. If it cannot break through, we may officially enter a bear market; if it successfully stabilizes, it will continue to oscillate and build a top. I believe that Bitcoin has likely already reached a major peak, and when faced with an oversold rebound, liquidating positions may be the best choice.