BTC: As of April 9, 2025, the current price of BTC is $77,300; a small bearish candle with an upper shadow was formed on the daily chart, and trading volume has decreased compared to the previous day, indicating that bearish forces currently have the upper hand.

On-chain data shows that the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of 4,123 coins yesterday, worth $326 million, reflecting cautious sentiment among institutional players and increased selling pressure. The market turnover rate has declined, which may be related to the brief warming of sentiment the previous day. URPD data indicates that the number of holders in the $92,000 to $97,000 range decreased by only 5,000 BTC, showing that long-term holders are not in panic, while players around the $83,000 mark have experienced significant losses and exited the market, with short-term selling pressure mainly coming from short-term holders.

On a macro level, the escalation of the U.S.-China trade war and the implementation of a 104% tariff has heightened market risk aversion, causing the VIX to spike to 57.52, with both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 turning negative. The market's expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates five times in 2025 has risen, but historical experience shows that the Fed is more focused on inflation than recession; unless the GDP data at the end of April is extremely poor, the probability of a rate cut in May is low.

In summary, if tariff policies continue to be high-pressure tonight, Bitcoin may further decline; if the tax rate eases, it may stabilize and rebound above $74,500.

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