This is not a retail market; this is an institutional play.
In the past week, ETH broke through its previous highs, and many people in the circle asked me if we are going to see another round of 'pump and dump' like before.
I will state the conclusion directly—this wave is not a typical retail sentiment market, but rather institutions queuing to enter.
Just look at the data: ETF inflows exceeded $1 billion in a single day, with BlackRock alone accounting for over $600 million, and Fidelity also jumped in with over $200 million.
This is not an emotional all-in; it is an asset allocation behavior—just like pension funds buying government bonds, it is a medium to long-term strategy.
I even suspect that for institutions, the current issue with ETH is no longer about 'buying or not buying,' but rather 'how much to buy and for how long.'
Big players are more ruthless than you imagine.
On-chain data is very straightforward: a wallet swept up $1.3 billion worth of ETH in just a few days, and BitMine even stated they aim to raise $20 billion to accumulate.
You might say, we can also see this data.
However, I want to remind you that on-chain transfers are just the surface; real positioning often starts months in advance, such as in over-the-counter (OTC) markets, futures locking, and derivatives hedging.
So what you see now may just be the tip of the iceberg.
The sentiment in the derivatives market is explosive, but there are risks here.
A new high in futures open interest (OI) indicates that market trading heat is at its peak, and in this situation, a short-term technical pullback could happen at any time.
Don't forget that while Ethereum has a large market cap, leveraged funds can quickly fall in a panic when faced with negative news.
So I personally suggest that short-term traders should closely monitor changes in open interest (OI) and funding rates, and not get carried away by emotions.
Technical patterns are aligning, but don't deify them.
From the chart, ETH has firmly stood at the upper range of $4,200-$4,400, and some technical analysts are even calling for a target of $6,000.
This is not unreasonable from a technical structure perspective, as it is currently in the 'power signal' phase of the Wyckoff model—in other words, bulls are confirming control.
But price is merely a reflection of consensus on capital, not the reason itself. The real drivers are ETF inflows, institutional accumulation, and ecosystem expectations.
What I am doing
My personal thinking is very simple:
Short-term: Don't chase highs; wait for sentiment to cool down or for a key support test before adding positions;
Mid-term: Build positions in batches, focusing on the sustainability of ETFs and on-chain activity;
Long-term: Hold the base position, betting on the long-term growth of the Ethereum ecosystem—this includes derivatives value like L2, DeFi, and RWA.
Conclusion
ETH reaching a new high this time is more about 'institutional slow knives' rather than 'retail rapid bursts.'
If you're just excited about the price, you might miss the real rhythm;
If you can see the web that capital is weaving behind the scenes, you will know—some trends are not meant to be chased, but to be anticipated.
This means ETH is stepping into the asset allocation list of institutional investors, shifting from 'speculative target' to 'investment asset.