BTC: As of April 21, 2025, the current price of BTC is $87,700; from the daily level, yesterday's closing pattern was a "star line" accompanied by a long lower shadow, indicating strong support below, with trading volume increasing compared to the previous day, showing an increase in market participation. The current price successfully stands above the 60-day moving average, but is under pressure from the 200-day moving average, indicating overall bullish strength.

On-chain data shows that last Sunday, the Bitcoin turnover rate hit a recent low (16,000 BTC/24 hours), reflecting insufficient market activity, but the support at $85,000 remains solid, and player confidence has not collapsed.

On a macro level, the market has shifted its focus to the upcoming release of the Q1 2025 GDP data this week, which will provide clear guidance for "recession trades." This week, tech giants Tesla and Alphabet will respectively release their earnings reports after the market closes on Tuesday and Thursday, and their performances may cause market fluctuations, affecting Bitcoin and other risk assets. The appointment of the new SEC chairman brings new hope for the crypto industry. The repeal of SAB 121 demonstrates a more friendly regulatory attitude. It is expected that in Q3 2025, the policies regarding spot Ethereum ETF staking will become clear, with a high possibility of approval.

Overall, there is a turning point in Bitcoin's technical outlook. On Monday morning, a large bullish candle broke through the 60-day moving average, but the 200-day moving average poses resistance. The short-term long-short ratio is relatively low, and the weakening US dollar index supports Bitcoin's further upward movement, targeting $88,000 to $92,200. The madman believes that macroeconomic uncertainty limits the upside potential, and this round is more likely a rebound rather than a reversal. If the resistance at $92,200 is not broken, the price may fall back to the range of $74,500 to $80,000.

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