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BITCOINโS 4-YEAR CYCLE ISNโT DEAD โ ITโS PLAYING OUT EXACTLY ON TIME.
Zoom out, ignore the noise, and look at the roadmap Bitcoin has followed for over a decade.
The long-term chart gives one of the cleanest signals in crypto:
Cycle Peak Timing:
โ 2012
โ 2017
โ 2021
โ 2025 loadingโฆ
Every top has landed roughly 1,420โ1,450 days apart โ almost like clockwork.
And after every peak, one brutal truth repeats:
2012 top โ -79% crash
2017 top โ -81% crash
2021 top โ -75% crash
Same structure. Same timing. Same macro psychology.
So when people say โThis time is different,โ the chart says:
No โ this time is the same. And the next major peak is lining up for 2025.
If history repeats, weโre entering the final acceleration phase.
Stay focused. Stay strategic.
The real move hasnโt even started yet.
#CYCLE
Zoom out, ignore the noise, and look at the roadmap Bitcoin has followed for over a decade.
The long-term chart gives one of the cleanest signals in crypto:
Cycle Peak Timing:
โ 2012
โ 2017
โ 2021
โ 2025 loadingโฆ
Every top has landed roughly 1,420โ1,450 days apart โ almost like clockwork.
And after every peak, one brutal truth repeats:
2012 top โ -79% crash
2017 top โ -81% crash
2021 top โ -75% crash
Same structure. Same timing. Same macro psychology.
So when people say โThis time is different,โ the chart says:
No โ this time is the same. And the next major peak is lining up for 2025.
If history repeats, weโre entering the final acceleration phase.
Stay focused. Stay strategic.
The real move hasnโt even started yet.
#CYCLE
$BTC Analysis : Bitcoin Drops Below $90,000: A Signal That Major Volatility Is Approaching?
Bitcoin (BTC) lost the key $90,000 support level over the weekend, prompting analysts to warn that a sharp move may be imminent.
According to data from Coinphoton, BTC spent most of the weekend trading sideways, capped by a clearly defined horizontal resistance. Multiple breakout attempts failed throughout the week, compressing the trading range and reinforcing expectations of a large directional move ahead.
Analyst Aksel Kibar noted that the current โextremely low volatilityโ setup suggests a decisive trend is close. He outlined two primary scenarios: either BTC breaks down from a bearish flag on the daily chart, or it rebounds to retest the $95,000 level. If the bearish flag plays out, Kibar expects BTC to slide toward the $73,700โ$76,500 zone, where a potential medium-term bottom could form. On the upside, a clean break above $94,600 could quickly open the door for a test of $100,000.
Other traders share a similar view, emphasizing that BTC/USD is at a critical inflection point. Crypto Tony highlighted a tight trading range between $90,600 and $89,800, advising traders to wait for a confirmed breakout before entering positions.
Meanwhile, CryptoQuant has issued a more bearish assessment, arguing that Bitcoin has entered a bear market phase. With price trading below declining simple moving averages and selling pressure dominating rebounds, analysts warn that downside risks remain elevated. In a worst-case scenario, BTC could revisit the $50,000 region before a new bullish cycle begins.
Bitcoin (BTC) lost the key $90,000 support level over the weekend, prompting analysts to warn that a sharp move may be imminent.
According to data from Coinphoton, BTC spent most of the weekend trading sideways, capped by a clearly defined horizontal resistance. Multiple breakout attempts failed throughout the week, compressing the trading range and reinforcing expectations of a large directional move ahead.
Analyst Aksel Kibar noted that the current โextremely low volatilityโ setup suggests a decisive trend is close. He outlined two primary scenarios: either BTC breaks down from a bearish flag on the daily chart, or it rebounds to retest the $95,000 level. If the bearish flag plays out, Kibar expects BTC to slide toward the $73,700โ$76,500 zone, where a potential medium-term bottom could form. On the upside, a clean break above $94,600 could quickly open the door for a test of $100,000.
Other traders share a similar view, emphasizing that BTC/USD is at a critical inflection point. Crypto Tony highlighted a tight trading range between $90,600 and $89,800, advising traders to wait for a confirmed breakout before entering positions.
Meanwhile, CryptoQuant has issued a more bearish assessment, arguing that Bitcoin has entered a bear market phase. With price trading below declining simple moving averages and selling pressure dominating rebounds, analysts warn that downside risks remain elevated. In a worst-case scenario, BTC could revisit the $50,000 region before a new bullish cycle begins.
Global Liquidity Hits a Record $130 Trillion: Will 2026 Open a โGolden Windowโ for Risk Assets?
As the world heads into 2026, liquidity signals are increasingly tilting toward a more constructive macro setup. Beyond three consecutive rate cuts in the second half of the year, marking the start of a monetary easing cycle, overall liquidity conditions continue to improve, providing a meaningful tailwind for risk assets.
Historically, when global liquidity gauges such as Global M2 reverse higher, capital tends to rotate into risk assets as investor risk appetite recovers. A similar backdrop is now taking shape. According to Alphractal data, Global M2 has surged to an all-time high, approaching $130 trillion.
That said, liquidity expansion remains uneven across regions. China has emerged as the primary driver, accounting for roughly 37% of total Global M2, with money supply reaching $47.7 trillion. In contrast, several economies including Japan, India, Argentina, Israel, and South Korea are seeing M2 contract.
Against this backdrop, the US Treasuryโs plan to issue $40 billion in bonds should not be viewed in isolation. Instead, it reflects a broader trend of major economies entering a renewed liquidity race, laying critical groundwork for risk asset performance as 2026 approaches.
Rising liquidity, cautious risk appetite
Globally, monetary conditions are clearly easing in a more synchronized manner. In the US, Treasury issuance aims to inject liquidity back into the banking system, supporting capital flows and indirectly benefiting risk assets. Combined with record-high Global M2 and the Fedโs pivot via three rate cuts, policy momentum appears supportive.
However, liquidity has yet to translate into price appreciation. Despite easing conditions, total crypto market capitalization fell 21% over the quarter, ending 2025 on a weak note. This disconnect suggests investors remain cautious. Still, if global money supply continues to expand, liquidity could become the key catalyst for a recovery ahead.
As the world heads into 2026, liquidity signals are increasingly tilting toward a more constructive macro setup. Beyond three consecutive rate cuts in the second half of the year, marking the start of a monetary easing cycle, overall liquidity conditions continue to improve, providing a meaningful tailwind for risk assets.
Historically, when global liquidity gauges such as Global M2 reverse higher, capital tends to rotate into risk assets as investor risk appetite recovers. A similar backdrop is now taking shape. According to Alphractal data, Global M2 has surged to an all-time high, approaching $130 trillion.
That said, liquidity expansion remains uneven across regions. China has emerged as the primary driver, accounting for roughly 37% of total Global M2, with money supply reaching $47.7 trillion. In contrast, several economies including Japan, India, Argentina, Israel, and South Korea are seeing M2 contract.
Against this backdrop, the US Treasuryโs plan to issue $40 billion in bonds should not be viewed in isolation. Instead, it reflects a broader trend of major economies entering a renewed liquidity race, laying critical groundwork for risk asset performance as 2026 approaches.
Rising liquidity, cautious risk appetite
Globally, monetary conditions are clearly easing in a more synchronized manner. In the US, Treasury issuance aims to inject liquidity back into the banking system, supporting capital flows and indirectly benefiting risk assets. Combined with record-high Global M2 and the Fedโs pivot via three rate cuts, policy momentum appears supportive.
However, liquidity has yet to translate into price appreciation. Despite easing conditions, total crypto market capitalization fell 21% over the quarter, ending 2025 on a weak note. This disconnect suggests investors remain cautious. Still, if global money supply continues to expand, liquidity could become the key catalyst for a recovery ahead.
Crypto Watchlist for the week ahead
$LIGHTER - Lighter is rumored to launch its token this month, as Coinbase added it to its listing roadmap
$FOLKS - Folks teased the upcoming launch of xChain V2, which will introduce cross-chain vault-based DeFi loans
$JUP - Jupiter will launch its new stablecoin built in collaboration with Ethena next week
Base - Base will make a big announcement on Dec. 18 (maybe about its upcoming $BASE token?)
$IN - INFINIT will launch Prompt-to-DeFi, an AI-powered way to create DeFi strategies, on Dec. 18 for early users
$COIN - Coinbase is set to launch prediction markets and tokenized stocks on Dec. 17
$ARB - $19M worth of ARB will be unlocked on Dec. 16
Macro events - Bank of Japan is expected to hike rates next week for the first time in 11 months
$MNT - mETH Protocol, the liquid staking & restaking ETH protocol built by Mantle, will undergo a big upgrade on Dec. 15
MegaETH - MegaETH will open its mainnet to app builders next week
$BTC - Trump is expected to start interviewing candidates for the next FED chair next week
$SNX - Synthetix will launch its perps DEX on Ethereum on Dec. 17
If you enjoyed reading this, a like and a repost would be appreciated๐ซก
$LIGHTER - Lighter is rumored to launch its token this month, as Coinbase added it to its listing roadmap
$FOLKS - Folks teased the upcoming launch of xChain V2, which will introduce cross-chain vault-based DeFi loans
$JUP - Jupiter will launch its new stablecoin built in collaboration with Ethena next week
Base - Base will make a big announcement on Dec. 18 (maybe about its upcoming $BASE token?)
$IN - INFINIT will launch Prompt-to-DeFi, an AI-powered way to create DeFi strategies, on Dec. 18 for early users
$COIN - Coinbase is set to launch prediction markets and tokenized stocks on Dec. 17
$ARB - $19M worth of ARB will be unlocked on Dec. 16
Macro events - Bank of Japan is expected to hike rates next week for the first time in 11 months
$MNT - mETH Protocol, the liquid staking & restaking ETH protocol built by Mantle, will undergo a big upgrade on Dec. 15
MegaETH - MegaETH will open its mainnet to app builders next week
$BTC - Trump is expected to start interviewing candidates for the next FED chair next week
$SNX - Synthetix will launch its perps DEX on Ethereum on Dec. 17
If you enjoyed reading this, a like and a repost would be appreciated๐ซก
Binance's trading volume has decreased by nearly 80% compared to yesterday.
Downtrend confirm
$BTC
Downtrend confirm
$BTC
Has the Four-Year Crypto Cycle Ended, and Is a Long-Term Supercycle Emerging?
According to the traditional four-year cycle theory, Bitcoin should be entering the early stages of a bear market. However, a growing number of analysts argue that this framework no longer fits todayโs market dynamics.
Recent price action across the crypto market has deviated from historical patterns. There have been no extreme euphoric blow-off tops at cycle highs, and the long-anticipated โaltcoin seasonโ has failed to materialize at the expected scale. Market behavior appears more muted, structured, and less speculative than in previous cycles.
A key reason for this shift is the deep involvement of institutional players throughout 2025. The rise of spot Bitcoin ETFs, increased corporate adoption, and strategic capital allocation have fundamentally altered market structure and investor psychology. These forces have reduced volatility extremes and weakened the relevance of purely halving-driven cycles.
Even Binanceโs former CEO, Changpeng Zhao, has suggested that the four-year cycle may be over. Speaking at the Bitcoin MENA conference, CZ stated that the market could be transitioning into a Bitcoin supercycle.
A Bitcoin supercycle refers to a prolonged uptrend that breaks away from traditional boom-and-bust dynamics. Instead of a 12 to 18-month rally followed by drawdowns of up to 85%, a supercycle could sustain upward momentum for two years or longer, driven primarily by institutional demand.
CZ believes aggressive institutional participation will be the main catalyst. This scenario aligns with macro tailwinds such as rate cuts and the end of global monetary tightening.
However, a supercycle does not lift all assets equally. Capital is likely to concentrate on Bitcoin and high-conviction narratives like ETFs, RWAs, and major infrastructure chains, while highly speculative tokens may be left behind. Despite the risks of sharp corrections, the broader trend points toward deeper crypto integration into the global financial system.
According to the traditional four-year cycle theory, Bitcoin should be entering the early stages of a bear market. However, a growing number of analysts argue that this framework no longer fits todayโs market dynamics.
Recent price action across the crypto market has deviated from historical patterns. There have been no extreme euphoric blow-off tops at cycle highs, and the long-anticipated โaltcoin seasonโ has failed to materialize at the expected scale. Market behavior appears more muted, structured, and less speculative than in previous cycles.
A key reason for this shift is the deep involvement of institutional players throughout 2025. The rise of spot Bitcoin ETFs, increased corporate adoption, and strategic capital allocation have fundamentally altered market structure and investor psychology. These forces have reduced volatility extremes and weakened the relevance of purely halving-driven cycles.
Even Binanceโs former CEO, Changpeng Zhao, has suggested that the four-year cycle may be over. Speaking at the Bitcoin MENA conference, CZ stated that the market could be transitioning into a Bitcoin supercycle.
A Bitcoin supercycle refers to a prolonged uptrend that breaks away from traditional boom-and-bust dynamics. Instead of a 12 to 18-month rally followed by drawdowns of up to 85%, a supercycle could sustain upward momentum for two years or longer, driven primarily by institutional demand.
CZ believes aggressive institutional participation will be the main catalyst. This scenario aligns with macro tailwinds such as rate cuts and the end of global monetary tightening.
However, a supercycle does not lift all assets equally. Capital is likely to concentrate on Bitcoin and high-conviction narratives like ETFs, RWAs, and major infrastructure chains, while highly speculative tokens may be left behind. Despite the risks of sharp corrections, the broader trend points toward deeper crypto integration into the global financial system.
El Salvadorโs Bitcoin treasury has reached 7,500 BTC, worth approximately $677 million, marking another milestone in the countryโs national Bitcoin strategy.
On-chain data shows that El Salvador accumulated 1,120 BTC over the past 30 days, making it one of the most aggressive accumulation phases since the program began. Notably, a single purchase of 1,090 BTC on November 18 highlights a high-conviction buy during market weakness. Over the past week, the treasury added another 8 BTC, indicating continued small, periodic buys.
Surpassing 7,500 BTC reinforces El Salvadorโs long-term HODL and DCA-driven approach, positioning the country as a leading sovereign experiment in Bitcoin accumulation amid growing institutional and ETF demand.
On-chain data shows that El Salvador accumulated 1,120 BTC over the past 30 days, making it one of the most aggressive accumulation phases since the program began. Notably, a single purchase of 1,090 BTC on November 18 highlights a high-conviction buy during market weakness. Over the past week, the treasury added another 8 BTC, indicating continued small, periodic buys.
Surpassing 7,500 BTC reinforces El Salvadorโs long-term HODL and DCA-driven approach, positioning the country as a leading sovereign experiment in Bitcoin accumulation amid growing institutional and ETF demand.
$BTC Analysis : Bitcoin Faces Risk of Dropping Below $70,000 Amid Japanโs Hawkish Monetary Policy
Bitcoin could face further downside pressure toward the $70,000 level if the Bank of Japan (BoJ) proceeds with an interest rate hike on December 19, according to several macro analysts.
BoJ Rate Hikes Have Historically Triggered Sharp Bitcoin Corrections
Data compiled by analyst AndrewBTC shows a clear pattern since 2024: every BoJ rate hike has coincided with a Bitcoin drawdown exceeding 20%. BTC fell roughly 23% in March 2024, 26% in July 2024, and 31% in January 2025 following previous policy tightening moves.
AndrewBTC warns that a similar downside scenario could play out again if the BoJ delivers another rate hike at its upcoming meeting. A recent Reuters survey also indicates that most economists expect the BoJ to continue tightening policy in December.
Japanโs Role in Global Liquidity Flows
Historically, BoJ rate hikes tend to strengthen the Japanese yen, raising borrowing costs and reducing the appeal of risk assets. This often forces investors to unwind yen-funded carry trades, leading to a contraction in global liquidity.
When liquidity tightens, Bitcoin typically comes under pressure as traders reduce leverage and de-risk their portfolios amid a broader risk-off environment. Analyst EX notes that, under current macro conditions, Bitcoin could realistically โfall below the $70,000 mark.โ
Technical Signals Point to Further Downside Risk
On the daily chart, Bitcoin is forming a classic bear flag pattern, a technical structure that often signals trend continuation to the downside. This pattern emerged after BTCโs sharp sell-off from the $105,000โ$110,000 range in November, followed by a narrow upward consolidation.
If BTC breaks below the lower trendline of the bear flag, a renewed decline toward the $70,000โ$72,500 zone becomes increasingly likely. Analysts such as James Check and Sellรฉn have echoed similar bearish scenarios over the past month.
Bitcoin could face further downside pressure toward the $70,000 level if the Bank of Japan (BoJ) proceeds with an interest rate hike on December 19, according to several macro analysts.
BoJ Rate Hikes Have Historically Triggered Sharp Bitcoin Corrections
Data compiled by analyst AndrewBTC shows a clear pattern since 2024: every BoJ rate hike has coincided with a Bitcoin drawdown exceeding 20%. BTC fell roughly 23% in March 2024, 26% in July 2024, and 31% in January 2025 following previous policy tightening moves.
AndrewBTC warns that a similar downside scenario could play out again if the BoJ delivers another rate hike at its upcoming meeting. A recent Reuters survey also indicates that most economists expect the BoJ to continue tightening policy in December.
Japanโs Role in Global Liquidity Flows
Historically, BoJ rate hikes tend to strengthen the Japanese yen, raising borrowing costs and reducing the appeal of risk assets. This often forces investors to unwind yen-funded carry trades, leading to a contraction in global liquidity.
When liquidity tightens, Bitcoin typically comes under pressure as traders reduce leverage and de-risk their portfolios amid a broader risk-off environment. Analyst EX notes that, under current macro conditions, Bitcoin could realistically โfall below the $70,000 mark.โ
Technical Signals Point to Further Downside Risk
On the daily chart, Bitcoin is forming a classic bear flag pattern, a technical structure that often signals trend continuation to the downside. This pattern emerged after BTCโs sharp sell-off from the $105,000โ$110,000 range in November, followed by a narrow upward consolidation.
If BTC breaks below the lower trendline of the bear flag, a renewed decline toward the $70,000โ$72,500 zone becomes increasingly likely. Analysts such as James Check and Sellรฉn have echoed similar bearish scenarios over the past month.
$PENDLE Analysis : Can Pendle Hold the $2 Level After Polychain Exits With a $4 Million Loss?
After being rejected near higher price levels more than six months ago, Pendle (PENDLE) has remained locked in a persistent downtrend, recently printing a local low around $2.02. At the time of writing, PENDLE is trading near $2.17, down 4.1% on the day and nearly 18.5% over the past month, highlighting sustained sell-side pressure.
This prolonged weakness appears to be triggering capitulation among long-term holders, including institutional players.
One notable example is Polychain Capital. On-chain data tracked by EmberCN shows that Polychain fully exited its Pendle position after months of holding. The fund accumulated approximately 4.11 million PENDLE between March and September at an average price of around $3.16, with a total cost near $13 million. Roughly four months later, Polychain sold its entire position around $2.19, realizing an estimated loss of $3.99 million.
Such a loss-taking exit often signals a meaningful shift in conviction, especially after an extended period of downside price action.
Importantly, selling pressure is not isolated to a single wallet. Coinalyze data shows Pendle posting a negative Buy Sell Delta for nine consecutive days, confirming that spot selling continues to dominate market flows.
From a technical perspective, the bearish structure remains intact. The daily RSI has slipped to around 36, pushing PENDLE close to oversold territory, while the Directional Movement Index shows the positive directional indicator falling toward 13, reflecting strong downside momentum.
If selling pressure persists, Pendle risks losing the critical $2 support, potentially opening the door to a deeper pullback toward $1.80. To stabilize sentiment, bulls need to reclaim and hold above $2.25. A successful defense could set the stage for a recovery toward the $2.50 zone.
After being rejected near higher price levels more than six months ago, Pendle (PENDLE) has remained locked in a persistent downtrend, recently printing a local low around $2.02. At the time of writing, PENDLE is trading near $2.17, down 4.1% on the day and nearly 18.5% over the past month, highlighting sustained sell-side pressure.
This prolonged weakness appears to be triggering capitulation among long-term holders, including institutional players.
One notable example is Polychain Capital. On-chain data tracked by EmberCN shows that Polychain fully exited its Pendle position after months of holding. The fund accumulated approximately 4.11 million PENDLE between March and September at an average price of around $3.16, with a total cost near $13 million. Roughly four months later, Polychain sold its entire position around $2.19, realizing an estimated loss of $3.99 million.
Such a loss-taking exit often signals a meaningful shift in conviction, especially after an extended period of downside price action.
Importantly, selling pressure is not isolated to a single wallet. Coinalyze data shows Pendle posting a negative Buy Sell Delta for nine consecutive days, confirming that spot selling continues to dominate market flows.
From a technical perspective, the bearish structure remains intact. The daily RSI has slipped to around 36, pushing PENDLE close to oversold territory, while the Directional Movement Index shows the positive directional indicator falling toward 13, reflecting strong downside momentum.
If selling pressure persists, Pendle risks losing the critical $2 support, potentially opening the door to a deeper pullback toward $1.80. To stabilize sentiment, bulls need to reclaim and hold above $2.25. A successful defense could set the stage for a recovery toward the $2.50 zone.
Is Silverโs Parabolic Rally an Early Warning Signal for Crypto?
Silver has stolen the spotlight this week after an explosive parabolic move, printing a new all time high above 64 USD. While the rally itself is remarkable, several analysts argue that the real significance may lie beneath the surface, as silver has historically acted as a leading indicator for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.
Market observers note that Bitcoin has often followed silverโs price action with a noticeable lag. This correlation has been visible since 2021, with BTC typically reacting weeks or even months after major upside moves in silver. If this pattern holds, Bitcoin could be setting up for a delayed bullish response to silverโs breakout, though timing remains uncertain.
Silverโs surge also suggests a liquidity rotation away from gold. This shift may indicate that capital is gradually moving from traditional safe havens toward assets perceived as relatively undervalued. Eventually, that rotation could extend into crypto once risk appetite improves.
Despite expectations that the Federal Reserveโs recent rate cut and the end of quantitative tightening would boost risk assets, Bitcoin dropped more than 4 percent after the announcement, while gold and silver continued higher. A key driver appears to be rising stagflation fears, with inflation still elevated despite looser monetary policy.
In this environment, investors have favored defensive assets over Bitcoin. However, history shows that when liquidity exits gold and silver, it often looks for higher beta opportunities. That dynamic keeps Bitcoin firmly on the watchlist as a potential next beneficiary.
#BTCVSGOLD
Silver has stolen the spotlight this week after an explosive parabolic move, printing a new all time high above 64 USD. While the rally itself is remarkable, several analysts argue that the real significance may lie beneath the surface, as silver has historically acted as a leading indicator for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.
Market observers note that Bitcoin has often followed silverโs price action with a noticeable lag. This correlation has been visible since 2021, with BTC typically reacting weeks or even months after major upside moves in silver. If this pattern holds, Bitcoin could be setting up for a delayed bullish response to silverโs breakout, though timing remains uncertain.
Silverโs surge also suggests a liquidity rotation away from gold. This shift may indicate that capital is gradually moving from traditional safe havens toward assets perceived as relatively undervalued. Eventually, that rotation could extend into crypto once risk appetite improves.
Despite expectations that the Federal Reserveโs recent rate cut and the end of quantitative tightening would boost risk assets, Bitcoin dropped more than 4 percent after the announcement, while gold and silver continued higher. A key driver appears to be rising stagflation fears, with inflation still elevated despite looser monetary policy.
In this environment, investors have favored defensive assets over Bitcoin. However, history shows that when liquidity exits gold and silver, it often looks for higher beta opportunities. That dynamic keeps Bitcoin firmly on the watchlist as a potential next beneficiary.
#BTCVSGOLD
The upcoming Bank of Japan meeting could become one of the key determinants of global liquidity.
There is no denying that macroeconomic conditions have had a profound impact on Bitcoinโs price and the broader crypto market in recent months. This dynamic is likely to persist, especially as the Bank of Japan continues to play a pivotal role.
In early August 2024, the crypto market experienced a sharp sell off triggered by the unwinding of Japanese yen carry trades following the BOJโs interest rate hike.
According to the latest reports, the BOJ is now considering further rate increases, a move that could accelerate the reversal of additional carry trade positions.
Global liquidity is currently tightly linked to the Japanese yen, while Japan remains one of the largest holders of US Treasury bonds.
If Japan raises rates further and continues selling US Treasuries, global financial markets could enter a new phase of heightened volatility.
Such a scenario would likely lead to capital flowing out of risk assets, including Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.
Analysts argue that the upcoming BOJ meeting is the underlying catalyst behind the recent crypto market downturn, which followed the Federal Reserveโs announcement of interest rate cuts.
There is no denying that macroeconomic conditions have had a profound impact on Bitcoinโs price and the broader crypto market in recent months. This dynamic is likely to persist, especially as the Bank of Japan continues to play a pivotal role.
In early August 2024, the crypto market experienced a sharp sell off triggered by the unwinding of Japanese yen carry trades following the BOJโs interest rate hike.
According to the latest reports, the BOJ is now considering further rate increases, a move that could accelerate the reversal of additional carry trade positions.
Global liquidity is currently tightly linked to the Japanese yen, while Japan remains one of the largest holders of US Treasury bonds.
If Japan raises rates further and continues selling US Treasuries, global financial markets could enter a new phase of heightened volatility.
Such a scenario would likely lead to capital flowing out of risk assets, including Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.
Analysts argue that the upcoming BOJ meeting is the underlying catalyst behind the recent crypto market downturn, which followed the Federal Reserveโs announcement of interest rate cuts.
Long-term Bitcoin $BTC holders are at peak distribution.
Global liquidity hits ATH at $130T โ Is 2026 the payoff for risk assets?
Heading into 2026, liquidity signals are starting to lean bullish.ย
Beyond the three consecutive rate cuts in the second half of the year that marked the start of the easing cycle, the broader liquidity backdrop continues to improve, putting a supportive tailwind behindย risk assets.
From a macro perspective, whenย global liquidity metricsย like Global M2 start trending higher, risk assets often follow as investors move further out on the risk curve. Notably, a similar pattern appears to be emerging now.
Source: Alphractal
According to Alphactral data, Global M2 Supply has reached new all-time highs, now approaching $130 trillion.
At the same time, this expansion has been uneven across regions, with China emerging as the primary driver.
Data showedย China accounting for roughly 37% of the total, with M2 standing at USD 47.7 trillion. However, several other economies are experiencing M2 contraction, including Japan, India, Argentina, Israel, and South Korea.
Against this setup, the U.S. governmentโs $40 billionย Treasury planย doesnโt look like a one-off.
Instead, major economies appear to be competing on liquidity provision, setting the stage for risk assets heading into 2026.
Liquidity is building, but risk assets stay cautious
Across the globe, liquidity easing seems to be moving in sync.
In the U.S., the $40 billionย Treasury planย is designed to inject cash into the banking system by issuing government debt. In turn, this move helps keep funding conditions smooth, indirectly providing a tailwind for risk assets.
Combined with Global M2 hitting ATH and the Fed easing through rate cuts and Treasury measures, the macro setup is clearly favoring risk assets. That said, how much upside we see will depend on investor appetite.
Source: TradingView (TOTAL)
Notably, theย macro tailwindsย havenโt yet supported gains in this space.
Despite three rate cuts, the TOTAL crypto market cap is down 21% for the quarter, ending 2025 on a bearish note. As a result, risk assets remain well below late-Q3 peaks, keeping investors cautious heading into 2026.
Against this backdrop, the impact of liquidity growth on risk assets isnโt easy to predict. That said, with global money supply rising, it could set the stage for a rebound, making it a key metric to watch in the months ahead.
Beyond the three consecutive rate cuts in the second half of the year that marked the start of the easing cycle, the broader liquidity backdrop continues to improve, putting a supportive tailwind behindย risk assets.
From a macro perspective, whenย global liquidity metricsย like Global M2 start trending higher, risk assets often follow as investors move further out on the risk curve. Notably, a similar pattern appears to be emerging now.
Source: Alphractal
According to Alphactral data, Global M2 Supply has reached new all-time highs, now approaching $130 trillion.
At the same time, this expansion has been uneven across regions, with China emerging as the primary driver.
Data showedย China accounting for roughly 37% of the total, with M2 standing at USD 47.7 trillion. However, several other economies are experiencing M2 contraction, including Japan, India, Argentina, Israel, and South Korea.
Against this setup, the U.S. governmentโs $40 billionย Treasury planย doesnโt look like a one-off.
Instead, major economies appear to be competing on liquidity provision, setting the stage for risk assets heading into 2026.
Liquidity is building, but risk assets stay cautious
Across the globe, liquidity easing seems to be moving in sync.
In the U.S., the $40 billionย Treasury planย is designed to inject cash into the banking system by issuing government debt. In turn, this move helps keep funding conditions smooth, indirectly providing a tailwind for risk assets.
Combined with Global M2 hitting ATH and the Fed easing through rate cuts and Treasury measures, the macro setup is clearly favoring risk assets. That said, how much upside we see will depend on investor appetite.
Source: TradingView (TOTAL)
Notably, theย macro tailwindsย havenโt yet supported gains in this space.
Despite three rate cuts, the TOTAL crypto market cap is down 21% for the quarter, ending 2025 on a bearish note. As a result, risk assets remain well below late-Q3 peaks, keeping investors cautious heading into 2026.
Against this backdrop, the impact of liquidity growth on risk assets isnโt easy to predict. That said, with global money supply rising, it could set the stage for a rebound, making it a key metric to watch in the months ahead.
$55B Bitcoin Options Market Locks In on the $100,000 Level
Bitcoinโs options market has grown into a deep, highly liquid structure, and it is now showing an unusually strong concentration around a single price level. Total open interest sits near $55.76 billion, with Deribit dominating at $46.24 billion. CME follows with $4.50 billion, while OKX, Bybit, and Binance trail far behind. Meanwhile, spot BTC is trading around $92,480.
Open interest curves reveal that capital is heavily skewed toward the December 26, 2025 expiry. The most crowded strike levels form a clear shelf around $100,000, with call open interest stepping higher above this psychological threshold. Max pain for near term expiries sits in the low $90,000s, but gradually shifts closer to $100,000 as year end approaches.
Greeks data adds further clarity. Gamma exposure is concentrated between roughly $86,000 and $110,000, with the flattest zone sitting between $95,000 and $100,000. This suggests price is likely to be magnetized toward this range into late December.
For long term holders, this options map still matters. Crowded strikes and expiries often define where liquidity thickens, volatility is suppressed, or sudden moves emerge once hedges unwind. Dealer hedging around these levels can softly pin price, then release it quickly once price exits the gamma zone.
Structurally, positioning reflects cautious optimism. Traders are paying for upside through $100,000 and beyond, while maintaining downside protection below. As December 26 approaches, the $100,000 level stands as the marketโs clear battleground.
Bitcoinโs options market has grown into a deep, highly liquid structure, and it is now showing an unusually strong concentration around a single price level. Total open interest sits near $55.76 billion, with Deribit dominating at $46.24 billion. CME follows with $4.50 billion, while OKX, Bybit, and Binance trail far behind. Meanwhile, spot BTC is trading around $92,480.
Open interest curves reveal that capital is heavily skewed toward the December 26, 2025 expiry. The most crowded strike levels form a clear shelf around $100,000, with call open interest stepping higher above this psychological threshold. Max pain for near term expiries sits in the low $90,000s, but gradually shifts closer to $100,000 as year end approaches.
Greeks data adds further clarity. Gamma exposure is concentrated between roughly $86,000 and $110,000, with the flattest zone sitting between $95,000 and $100,000. This suggests price is likely to be magnetized toward this range into late December.
For long term holders, this options map still matters. Crowded strikes and expiries often define where liquidity thickens, volatility is suppressed, or sudden moves emerge once hedges unwind. Dealer hedging around these levels can softly pin price, then release it quickly once price exits the gamma zone.
Structurally, positioning reflects cautious optimism. Traders are paying for upside through $100,000 and beyond, while maintaining downside protection below. As December 26 approaches, the $100,000 level stands as the marketโs clear battleground.
Google Trends data suggests that Bitcoin continues to quietly retain strong mindshare, even as market conditions appear relatively subdued. While price action has cooled compared to recent highs, search interest for โBitcoinโ has remained steady throughout the past year, highlighting its durable position in global investor attention during a corrective phase.
From a longer term perspective, Bitcoinโs search interest over the past five years has shown notable consistency, though current levels sit in the mid to lower range relative to the 2020โ2021 cycle peak. That period marked Bitcoinโs breakout into mainstream awareness, driven by retail euphoria and unprecedented macro stimulus.
As 2025 nears its end, Bitcoin is following a different attention trajectory. Search interest peaked in mid November before easing alongside price weakness, yet it has stabilized at a higher baseline rather than collapsing. This pattern suggests consolidation in attention, not disengagement.
Regionally, interest remains strongest in El Salvador, Switzerland, Austria, and parts of Europe, reflecting sustained institutional and structural relevance. Overall, Bitcoin has not disappeared from the global narrative. It is simply in a quiet phase, waiting for the next catalyst to pull it back into the spotlight.
From a longer term perspective, Bitcoinโs search interest over the past five years has shown notable consistency, though current levels sit in the mid to lower range relative to the 2020โ2021 cycle peak. That period marked Bitcoinโs breakout into mainstream awareness, driven by retail euphoria and unprecedented macro stimulus.
As 2025 nears its end, Bitcoin is following a different attention trajectory. Search interest peaked in mid November before easing alongside price weakness, yet it has stabilized at a higher baseline rather than collapsing. This pattern suggests consolidation in attention, not disengagement.
Regionally, interest remains strongest in El Salvador, Switzerland, Austria, and parts of Europe, reflecting sustained institutional and structural relevance. Overall, Bitcoin has not disappeared from the global narrative. It is simply in a quiet phase, waiting for the next catalyst to pull it back into the spotlight.
As DeFi liquidity becomes increasingly critical for Layer 1 networks aiming for mainstream adoption, recent developments around Rippleโs ecosystem are drawing attention. Hex Trust has announced the launch of wrapped XRP, or wXRP, a move designed to extend XRPโs reach beyond its native rails and into the broader DeFi landscape.
Instead of deploying on XRPL, Hex Trust chose Solana as the host chain, marking a clear cross chain strategy. This effectively shifts XRPโs DeFi use case toward an ecosystem with deeper on chain activity, allowing XRP liquidity to plug directly into Solanaโs high throughput environment.
The data highlights why this matters. According to DeFiLlama, Solanaโs 24 hour DEX volume recently stood at around 3.9 billion dollars, compared to just 6.78 million dollars on XRPL. By anchoring wXRP on Solana, XRP gains access to a vastly larger liquidity pool, making it more practical for trading, lending, and other DeFi applications.
At the same time, the move underscores XRPLโs current limitations. Total value locked on XRPL remains relatively small at around 69 million dollars, while stablecoin market cap sits near 343 million dollars. In contrast, Solanaโs TVL exceeds 17 billion dollars, reflecting a far more mature DeFi ecosystem.
Within this context, wXRP represents a strategic bridge. As Ripple pushes deeper into payments and institutional adoption in 2025, demand for XRP continues to grow, supported by ETF inflows. Hosting wXRP on Solana allows that demand to translate into meaningful DeFi activity, unlocking new utility and positioning XRP for broader on chain participation.
Instead of deploying on XRPL, Hex Trust chose Solana as the host chain, marking a clear cross chain strategy. This effectively shifts XRPโs DeFi use case toward an ecosystem with deeper on chain activity, allowing XRP liquidity to plug directly into Solanaโs high throughput environment.
The data highlights why this matters. According to DeFiLlama, Solanaโs 24 hour DEX volume recently stood at around 3.9 billion dollars, compared to just 6.78 million dollars on XRPL. By anchoring wXRP on Solana, XRP gains access to a vastly larger liquidity pool, making it more practical for trading, lending, and other DeFi applications.
At the same time, the move underscores XRPLโs current limitations. Total value locked on XRPL remains relatively small at around 69 million dollars, while stablecoin market cap sits near 343 million dollars. In contrast, Solanaโs TVL exceeds 17 billion dollars, reflecting a far more mature DeFi ecosystem.
Within this context, wXRP represents a strategic bridge. As Ripple pushes deeper into payments and institutional adoption in 2025, demand for XRP continues to grow, supported by ETF inflows. Hosting wXRP on Solana allows that demand to translate into meaningful DeFi activity, unlocking new utility and positioning XRP for broader on chain participation.
This important federal regulatory milestone paves the way for DTC Participants and their clients to begin to tokenize select stocks, ETFs and fixed-income securities."
Tokenized stocks are like stablecoins in 2020, but with regulatory clarity arriving much faster.
Tokenized stocks are like stablecoins in 2020, but with regulatory clarity arriving much faster.
Why Bitcoin Hasnโt Rallied Yet, Even as Stocks and Gold Surge
After digging into the data, the answer comes down to capital flow dynamics, especially in the derivatives market.
Whatโs happening is fairly straightforward.
Long term Bitcoin holders are using every price rebound as an opportunity to sell. This isnโt just spot selling. Many are also selling away their upside by hedging or locking in profits early, rather than waiting for a large directional move. In practice, they are monetizing future upside before it materializes.
This behavior creates a steady stream of supply whenever BTC attempts to recover, preventing price from building enough momentum to break out.
At the same time, ETF investors particularly through products like IBIT are doing the opposite. They are positioning for higher BTC prices several months out and are willing to pay a premium for convex upside exposure.
The result is a market split into two opposing forces.
Native BTC markets are suppressing volatility by constantly capping rallies, while the ETF market is actively pricing in higher future volatility and upside.
This mismatch keeps price compressed. When volatility is squeezed, BTC tends to drift sideways rather than trend decisively. It doesnโt explode higher, but it also avoids a deep sell off, leaving traders stuck in a frustrating range.
Thatโs why implied volatility in Bitcoin has dropped sharply and why a major move has yet to emerge. Bitcoin enters a true trend only when volatility returns, not simply when price ticks higher.
After digging into the data, the answer comes down to capital flow dynamics, especially in the derivatives market.
Whatโs happening is fairly straightforward.
Long term Bitcoin holders are using every price rebound as an opportunity to sell. This isnโt just spot selling. Many are also selling away their upside by hedging or locking in profits early, rather than waiting for a large directional move. In practice, they are monetizing future upside before it materializes.
This behavior creates a steady stream of supply whenever BTC attempts to recover, preventing price from building enough momentum to break out.
At the same time, ETF investors particularly through products like IBIT are doing the opposite. They are positioning for higher BTC prices several months out and are willing to pay a premium for convex upside exposure.
The result is a market split into two opposing forces.
Native BTC markets are suppressing volatility by constantly capping rallies, while the ETF market is actively pricing in higher future volatility and upside.
This mismatch keeps price compressed. When volatility is squeezed, BTC tends to drift sideways rather than trend decisively. It doesnโt explode higher, but it also avoids a deep sell off, leaving traders stuck in a frustrating range.
Thatโs why implied volatility in Bitcoin has dropped sharply and why a major move has yet to emerge. Bitcoin enters a true trend only when volatility returns, not simply when price ticks higher.
Bitcoin Through the Lens of Gold: A Different Story for 2025
Bitcoinโs 2025 narrative is usually told in US dollar terms, highlighting a volatile fourth quarter marked by sharp swings and fragile recoveries. BTC surged to nearly $124,700 in late October before collapsing into the mid $80,000s in November, wiping out over $40,000 in a short window. This violent move fueled debate over whether Bitcoinโs broader market structure remained intact, even as prices attempted to stabilize in December.
However, when the same period is measured against gold rather than USD, a very different picture emerges. On a BTC to gold basis, Bitcoin has been locked in an 11 month downtrend. The BTC XAU ratio is down roughly 45 percent from its January peak, and that structure remains unbroken despite modest rebounds in early December.
While BTC is only about 10 percent lower year to date in dollar terms, its relative performance versus gold tells a story of persistent weakness. Even recent USD gains have failed to reverse nearly a year of underperformance against a traditional store of value. Part of this reflects gold strength, driven by falling real rate expectations and elevated geopolitical risk, but a 46 week decline in BTC XAU remains a meaningful signal.
Cross asset comparisons matter because they strip out fiat specific distortions. Instead of asking how many dollars one Bitcoin is worth, the market asks how many ounces of gold it commands. In 2025, the answer has consistently been fewer.
As 2026 approaches, Bitcoin must prove strength not only against fiat currencies, but against gold itself. Until then, the gold denominated chart continues to highlight the gap between short term volatility and long term confidence.
Bitcoinโs 2025 narrative is usually told in US dollar terms, highlighting a volatile fourth quarter marked by sharp swings and fragile recoveries. BTC surged to nearly $124,700 in late October before collapsing into the mid $80,000s in November, wiping out over $40,000 in a short window. This violent move fueled debate over whether Bitcoinโs broader market structure remained intact, even as prices attempted to stabilize in December.
However, when the same period is measured against gold rather than USD, a very different picture emerges. On a BTC to gold basis, Bitcoin has been locked in an 11 month downtrend. The BTC XAU ratio is down roughly 45 percent from its January peak, and that structure remains unbroken despite modest rebounds in early December.
While BTC is only about 10 percent lower year to date in dollar terms, its relative performance versus gold tells a story of persistent weakness. Even recent USD gains have failed to reverse nearly a year of underperformance against a traditional store of value. Part of this reflects gold strength, driven by falling real rate expectations and elevated geopolitical risk, but a 46 week decline in BTC XAU remains a meaningful signal.
Cross asset comparisons matter because they strip out fiat specific distortions. Instead of asking how many dollars one Bitcoin is worth, the market asks how many ounces of gold it commands. In 2025, the answer has consistently been fewer.
As 2026 approaches, Bitcoin must prove strength not only against fiat currencies, but against gold itself. Until then, the gold denominated chart continues to highlight the gap between short term volatility and long term confidence.
Bitmine acquires an additional 23,637 ETH
According to Lookonchain, Bitmine, an Ethereum treasury management firm linked to Fundstrat analyst Tom Lee, has purchased an additional 23,637 ETH worth approximately $73.28 million from Kraken just three hours ago. Data from Arkham Intelligence confirms that the ETH was transferred to wallet address 0x4a395BDc3507307Ca223b9B1b3c20c6345f545eb.
This latest transaction extends Bitmineโs aggressive accumulation strategy. Over the past week alone, the firm added 138,452 ETH, bringing its total holdings to more than 3.86 million ETH, valued at roughly $12.13 billion at current market prices.
The move aligns with Tom Leeโs bullish outlook on Ethereum. He has projected that ETH could reach $9,000 by 2026, driven by upcoming network upgrades such as Fusaka and a more supportive monetary policy environment from the Fed. Bitmineโs continued accumulation highlights growing institutional conviction in Ethereum, even amid short-term market volatility.
According to Lookonchain, Bitmine, an Ethereum treasury management firm linked to Fundstrat analyst Tom Lee, has purchased an additional 23,637 ETH worth approximately $73.28 million from Kraken just three hours ago. Data from Arkham Intelligence confirms that the ETH was transferred to wallet address 0x4a395BDc3507307Ca223b9B1b3c20c6345f545eb.
This latest transaction extends Bitmineโs aggressive accumulation strategy. Over the past week alone, the firm added 138,452 ETH, bringing its total holdings to more than 3.86 million ETH, valued at roughly $12.13 billion at current market prices.
The move aligns with Tom Leeโs bullish outlook on Ethereum. He has projected that ETH could reach $9,000 by 2026, driven by upcoming network upgrades such as Fusaka and a more supportive monetary policy environment from the Fed. Bitmineโs continued accumulation highlights growing institutional conviction in Ethereum, even amid short-term market volatility.
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