加密分析师飞凡
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Top 10 altcoins set to explode in the bull market of 2025!
The crypto market may be approaching the altcoin season, providing investors with an opportunity to prepare for potential profits in 2025. Many altcoins are considered by traders to have great prospects.
Jupiter ($JUP ), a Solana-based decentralized exchange, has expanded its services to include spot trading of emerging and riskier memecoins. Although currently displaying a "head and shoulders pattern" that could lead to a drop in price, Hedera ($HBAR ) is also a project that is attracting attention due to its recent management changes and potential to become the first cryptocurrency bank. Despite some bearish indicators in the short term, Hedera's continued ecosystem expansion and partnerships make it an interesting option to hold until 2025.
Optimism ($OP) is also generating interest as Sony launches the first public testnet of its Soneium blockchain. While price volatility may be high in the short term, some experts believe there could be significant growth potential over the next six to 12 months. Uniswap ($UNI) is also on the radar, and its recent price action may be setting it up for strong performance in the coming years.
Other altcoins mentioned include Avalanche ($AVAX ), a project that recently launched V3 on the ERA mainnet; Helium ($HNT), which has gained a lot of attention due to its relationship with mobile networks; and Stacks ($STX), a Bitcoin’s second-layer solutions are often closely tied to Bitcoin’s price movements. Analysts suggest that these projects could see significant growth if the overall crypto market picks up.
The discussion also touched on memecoins, specifically those on the Base network. While opinions vary on their long-term viability, some believe memecoins will have a place in the crypto ecosystem. Popular meme coin Bald ($BALD) is also analyzed for potential price action on Base.
As always, investors are advised to conduct thorough research when exploring altcoin investments and make decisions based on their own risk tolerance. As significant price volatility is likely to occur in the coming years, diversification and prudent portfolio management remain important strategies for dealing with crypto market volatility.
The crypto market may be approaching the altcoin season, providing investors with an opportunity to prepare for potential profits in 2025. Many altcoins are considered by traders to have great prospects.
Jupiter ($JUP ), a Solana-based decentralized exchange, has expanded its services to include spot trading of emerging and riskier memecoins. Although currently displaying a "head and shoulders pattern" that could lead to a drop in price, Hedera ($HBAR ) is also a project that is attracting attention due to its recent management changes and potential to become the first cryptocurrency bank. Despite some bearish indicators in the short term, Hedera's continued ecosystem expansion and partnerships make it an interesting option to hold until 2025.
Optimism ($OP) is also generating interest as Sony launches the first public testnet of its Soneium blockchain. While price volatility may be high in the short term, some experts believe there could be significant growth potential over the next six to 12 months. Uniswap ($UNI) is also on the radar, and its recent price action may be setting it up for strong performance in the coming years.
Other altcoins mentioned include Avalanche ($AVAX ), a project that recently launched V3 on the ERA mainnet; Helium ($HNT), which has gained a lot of attention due to its relationship with mobile networks; and Stacks ($STX), a Bitcoin’s second-layer solutions are often closely tied to Bitcoin’s price movements. Analysts suggest that these projects could see significant growth if the overall crypto market picks up.
The discussion also touched on memecoins, specifically those on the Base network. While opinions vary on their long-term viability, some believe memecoins will have a place in the crypto ecosystem. Popular meme coin Bald ($BALD) is also analyzed for potential price action on Base.
As always, investors are advised to conduct thorough research when exploring altcoin investments and make decisions based on their own risk tolerance. As significant price volatility is likely to occur in the coming years, diversification and prudent portfolio management remain important strategies for dealing with crypto market volatility.
See original
ETH has successfully stabilized at 4000. Which altcoins might rise over the weekend?
$AAVE , Aave collaborates with Metamask to launch Stablecoin Earn, allowing users to earn yields by depositing stablecoins from MM into Aave.
$PENDLE , Pendle has launched HyperEVM.
$JUP , Jupiter releases Jupiter Lend.
$IN, INFINIT @Infinit_Labs has launched the $IN token and its airdrop claiming platform, which allows staking for protocol revenue sharing and governance rights.
$MPL, Maple Finance increases the proportion of monthly revenue used for repurchasing SYRUP from 20% to 25% through a new proposal.
$PUFFER, Puffer Finance upgrades UniFi AVS, providing sub-second execution speed for Rollup through validator-supported gateways and pre-confirmation mechanisms.
#ETH突破4000
$AAVE , Aave collaborates with Metamask to launch Stablecoin Earn, allowing users to earn yields by depositing stablecoins from MM into Aave.
$PENDLE , Pendle has launched HyperEVM.
$JUP , Jupiter releases Jupiter Lend.
$IN, INFINIT @Infinit_Labs has launched the $IN token and its airdrop claiming platform, which allows staking for protocol revenue sharing and governance rights.
$MPL, Maple Finance increases the proportion of monthly revenue used for repurchasing SYRUP from 20% to 25% through a new proposal.
$PUFFER, Puffer Finance upgrades UniFi AVS, providing sub-second execution speed for Rollup through validator-supported gateways and pre-confirmation mechanisms.
#ETH突破4000
See original
What is the probability of ETH breaking through 4000 in the short term?
Looking at ETH ETFs, on August 4th there was a net outflow of approximately -$465 million (mainly ETHA), but on 8/5 there was an inflow of +$73.3 million and on 8/6 +$35.1 million, quickly turning positive.
Additionally, it is worth noting that in the first two weeks of August, the net increase in ETH spot ETF holdings accounted for about 0.3–0.4% of the circulating supply.
In fact, not only $BTC, but $ETH is also close to the bottom of the exchange stock. The general explanation is certainly that selling pressure has decreased, but in reality, the price resistance of $ETH comes more from psychological barriers rather than actual sellable volume.
Moreover, the significant benefits from the EIP-4844 upgrade have not yet been reflected in the price of $ETH . However, if it is still hovering around 3800 this weekend, we will basically need to look at the US CPI next week. This means that if pure capital flow and narrative fundamentals cannot help ETH break through 4000, then it will have to rely on macroeconomic and regulatory benefits to drive it.
#eth突破4000
Looking at ETH ETFs, on August 4th there was a net outflow of approximately -$465 million (mainly ETHA), but on 8/5 there was an inflow of +$73.3 million and on 8/6 +$35.1 million, quickly turning positive.
Additionally, it is worth noting that in the first two weeks of August, the net increase in ETH spot ETF holdings accounted for about 0.3–0.4% of the circulating supply.
In fact, not only $BTC, but $ETH is also close to the bottom of the exchange stock. The general explanation is certainly that selling pressure has decreased, but in reality, the price resistance of $ETH comes more from psychological barriers rather than actual sellable volume.
Moreover, the significant benefits from the EIP-4844 upgrade have not yet been reflected in the price of $ETH . However, if it is still hovering around 3800 this weekend, we will basically need to look at the US CPI next week. This means that if pure capital flow and narrative fundamentals cannot help ETH break through 4000, then it will have to rely on macroeconomic and regulatory benefits to drive it.
#eth突破4000
See original
The CPI data to be released next Tuesday should be the most important barometer.
This CPI directly affects whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. Of course, the reason has been mentioned many times: if inflation is low, the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates, the dollar will weaken, which is very favorable for cryptocurrencies, as there will be more money in the market.
In fact, there are generally two situations:
1. Data is below expectations (good news): This indicates that inflation is under control, and high-risk, highly volatile coins (such as $SOL ecology, RWA concept coins, small second-layer ecological tokens) will rise sharply first.
2. If the data is roughly in line with expectations or slightly higher (bad news): Then the cryptocurrency market is likely to drop first and then gradually stabilize.
Talking about my operational experience, usually, the sharp rise or fall at the moment the data is released is often caused by algorithmic trading and bots, which can be false moves. The real trend usually appears 30 to 90 minutes later, once the movements of U.S. Treasuries and the dollar become clear.
Additionally, if the data is good, but the dollar strengthens instead and Treasury yields rise, it indicates that the market has other negative factors, and it is necessary to cut losses quickly.
$XRP $ETH
#美SEC批准流动性质押
This CPI directly affects whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. Of course, the reason has been mentioned many times: if inflation is low, the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates, the dollar will weaken, which is very favorable for cryptocurrencies, as there will be more money in the market.
In fact, there are generally two situations:
1. Data is below expectations (good news): This indicates that inflation is under control, and high-risk, highly volatile coins (such as $SOL ecology, RWA concept coins, small second-layer ecological tokens) will rise sharply first.
2. If the data is roughly in line with expectations or slightly higher (bad news): Then the cryptocurrency market is likely to drop first and then gradually stabilize.
Talking about my operational experience, usually, the sharp rise or fall at the moment the data is released is often caused by algorithmic trading and bots, which can be false moves. The real trend usually appears 30 to 90 minutes later, once the movements of U.S. Treasuries and the dollar become clear.
Additionally, if the data is good, but the dollar strengthens instead and Treasury yields rise, it indicates that the market has other negative factors, and it is necessary to cut losses quickly.
$XRP $ETH
#美SEC批准流动性质押
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If you study $CFX carefully, you will find that almost every year Conflux provides excellent wealth opportunities. Whether it is Wu Ming's exit or the previous favorable conditions collapsing, these cannot stop this law.
Those who can make money in $cfx every year are among the best of the best.
Those who can make money in $cfx every year are among the best of the best.
See original
This week continues to revolve around macro fluctuations, with $BTC likely oscillating between $112,000 - $118,000.
The source of volatility mainly comes from the U.S. stress tests, massive national debt, and economic data.
The U.S. Treasury will issue a large amount of new long-term national debt over three consecutive days (from August 5 to 7).
If this national debt auction does not go smoothly, for example, if buyer enthusiasm is low,
then to attract investment, U.S. Treasury yields may be forced to rise.
On the same day (August 5), the U.S. will release the July ISM Services PMI data, which basically reflects whether the U.S. economy is thriving.
If the data is strong (e.g., above 55), the market will worry that the Federal Reserve might reignite thoughts of interest rate hikes, leading to a short-term strengthening of the dollar, putting pressure on non-U.S. assets, including cryptocurrencies.
On the other hand, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision on Thursday (August 7). As mentioned before, a rate cut in the UK essentially means that Europe believes the dollar is about to peak, which can be seen as a boost to sentiment for all risk assets (including the crypto space).
Given the current market sentiment and conditions, the likely scenario is: the U.S. national debt auction passes smoothly, economic data remains lukewarm, and the Bank of England releases mild dovish signals, with bullish and bearish forces offsetting each other, leading Bitcoin to oscillate between 110,000 and 120,000.
Of course, it is also possible that the U.S. national debt auction goes very smoothly, and then economic data shows weakness, allowing $BTC to start breaking upward.
$CFX
$ENA
#币安Alpha上新
The source of volatility mainly comes from the U.S. stress tests, massive national debt, and economic data.
The U.S. Treasury will issue a large amount of new long-term national debt over three consecutive days (from August 5 to 7).
If this national debt auction does not go smoothly, for example, if buyer enthusiasm is low,
then to attract investment, U.S. Treasury yields may be forced to rise.
On the same day (August 5), the U.S. will release the July ISM Services PMI data, which basically reflects whether the U.S. economy is thriving.
If the data is strong (e.g., above 55), the market will worry that the Federal Reserve might reignite thoughts of interest rate hikes, leading to a short-term strengthening of the dollar, putting pressure on non-U.S. assets, including cryptocurrencies.
On the other hand, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision on Thursday (August 7). As mentioned before, a rate cut in the UK essentially means that Europe believes the dollar is about to peak, which can be seen as a boost to sentiment for all risk assets (including the crypto space).
Given the current market sentiment and conditions, the likely scenario is: the U.S. national debt auction passes smoothly, economic data remains lukewarm, and the Bank of England releases mild dovish signals, with bullish and bearish forces offsetting each other, leading Bitcoin to oscillate between 110,000 and 120,000.
Of course, it is also possible that the U.S. national debt auction goes very smoothly, and then economic data shows weakness, allowing $BTC to start breaking upward.
$CFX
$ENA
#币安Alpha上新
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Tokens unlocking and release paths to watch in August, see which coins can still be held
$SUI : Unlock 56.91 M SUI, allocated to Series B investors, community reserves, early contributors, and Mysten Labs
$ENA : Unlock 94.19 M ENA, all allocated to the core contributor team.
$JTO : Unlock 11.31 M JTO, for ecological development, core contributors, and community growth, with 10% reserved for airdrops.
$IMX: Unlock 24.52 M IMX, allocated to the ecological development fund.
$APT: Unlock 11.31 M APT, all entering the community pool.
$PUMP: Unlock 10 B PUMP, used as platform trading incentives
$AVAX: Unlock 1.67 M AVAX, belonging to the Avalanche Foundation
$STRK: Unlock 127.6 M STRK, proportionally allocated to early contributors and investors
$ARB: Unlock 92.65 M ARB, released to existing teams, future teams, and advisors
$ZRO: Unlock 24.68 M ZRO, attributed to the buyback treasury
$KAITO: Unlock 16.67 M KAITO, for ecological and network growth
$HUMA: Unlock 126.25 M HUMA, injected into the Protocol Treasury
How to respond to the unlocks?
The key is to distinguish the unlocking release paths, here is a brief explanation:
Selling pressure for ecological/community/incentive types (like IMX, PUMP, APT) is relatively controllable
Low circulation - high unlocking ratio (like ZRO, STRK, KAITO) is more likely to experience price volatility
For long-term promising public chains (SUI, AVAX, APT), a dollar-cost averaging strategy after unlocking can be adopted.
#加密市场回调
$SUI : Unlock 56.91 M SUI, allocated to Series B investors, community reserves, early contributors, and Mysten Labs
$ENA : Unlock 94.19 M ENA, all allocated to the core contributor team.
$JTO : Unlock 11.31 M JTO, for ecological development, core contributors, and community growth, with 10% reserved for airdrops.
$IMX: Unlock 24.52 M IMX, allocated to the ecological development fund.
$APT: Unlock 11.31 M APT, all entering the community pool.
$PUMP: Unlock 10 B PUMP, used as platform trading incentives
$AVAX: Unlock 1.67 M AVAX, belonging to the Avalanche Foundation
$STRK: Unlock 127.6 M STRK, proportionally allocated to early contributors and investors
$ARB: Unlock 92.65 M ARB, released to existing teams, future teams, and advisors
$ZRO: Unlock 24.68 M ZRO, attributed to the buyback treasury
$KAITO: Unlock 16.67 M KAITO, for ecological and network growth
$HUMA: Unlock 126.25 M HUMA, injected into the Protocol Treasury
How to respond to the unlocks?
The key is to distinguish the unlocking release paths, here is a brief explanation:
Selling pressure for ecological/community/incentive types (like IMX, PUMP, APT) is relatively controllable
Low circulation - high unlocking ratio (like ZRO, STRK, KAITO) is more likely to experience price volatility
For long-term promising public chains (SUI, AVAX, APT), a dollar-cost averaging strategy after unlocking can be adopted.
#加密市场回调
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Remember that the institutional holding cost of Bitcoin was around 30,000 before, and subsequently, the numbers continued to rise,
while this time the institutional holding cost of Ethereum is about 3,650. Could it also become a new starting point for a rise?
$ETH
$XRP
#以太坊十周年
while this time the institutional holding cost of Ethereum is about 3,650. Could it also become a new starting point for a rise?
$ETH
$XRP
#以太坊十周年
See original
The Xiaoshan Station season is expected to reach a small peak in the first week of August.
What stable blue-chip assets are still worth speculative trading?
$UNI Angstrom decentralized exchange has launched, based on Uniswap v4 architecture, and can redistribute MEV profits to liquidity providers.
$AAVE , $ETH Aave has announced a risk premium mechanism, which will be introduced in Aave v4, allowing high-quality collateral like ETH to enjoy lower borrowing costs.
$ENA , $USDtb Ethena is collaborating with Anchorage to convert USDtb into onshore stablecoins compliant with U.S. federal regulations.
$DOGE Dogecoin developers are discussing the native verification of zero-knowledge proofs on the main chain, which will become the first mainstream PoW chain to support this feature.
$BNB Binance has launched a principal protection Earn product RWUSD, with a maximum annualized return of 4.2%, with earnings derived from tokenized U.S. Treasury bonds and other RWA.
#以太坊十周年
What stable blue-chip assets are still worth speculative trading?
$UNI Angstrom decentralized exchange has launched, based on Uniswap v4 architecture, and can redistribute MEV profits to liquidity providers.
$AAVE , $ETH Aave has announced a risk premium mechanism, which will be introduced in Aave v4, allowing high-quality collateral like ETH to enjoy lower borrowing costs.
$ENA , $USDtb Ethena is collaborating with Anchorage to convert USDtb into onshore stablecoins compliant with U.S. federal regulations.
$DOGE Dogecoin developers are discussing the native verification of zero-knowledge proofs on the main chain, which will become the first mainstream PoW chain to support this feature.
$BNB Binance has launched a principal protection Earn product RWUSD, with a maximum annualized return of 4.2%, with earnings derived from tokenized U.S. Treasury bonds and other RWA.
#以太坊十周年
See original
Discuss the current situation of tariffs
In summary: The trade situation has eased, Bitcoin has risen in the short term but faces pressure in the long term.
Simply put, what has happened recently?
The United States has temporarily ceased its trade war with the European Union and China, which is good news for the market, so both stocks and Bitcoin have seen some gains.
With the European Union (July 28): The United States agreed to a 15% tariff ceiling, and products sold from the U.S. to Europe do not need to pay tariffs for now.
With China (July 29): The soon-to-expire ceasefire agreement has been extended for another 90 days, allowing everyone to catch their breath.
The core issue remains that this is merely a pause, not an end. The major tariff issues are still present, so market uncertainty remains high.
Why did Bitcoin rise and then fall?
After the easing of trade relations, $BTC also surged, peaking at nearly $120,000, but then it fell back down.
Why did it happen this way?
Without a trade war, people are less fearful of risks, feeling that the market environment is good, and are willing to invest in high-risk, high-return assets like Bitcoin and tech stocks.
However, if negotiations break down again in the future and tariffs are reinstated, everyone will immediately sell off these high-risk assets, and Bitcoin may fall along with the stock market.
Additionally, Bitcoin serves as a safe-haven asset: If tariffs really lead to rising prices of various goods (i.e., inflation), some people will see Bitcoin as digital gold that can preserve value, thus buying Bitcoin to hedge against inflation.
On the other hand, it is a “risk asset”: If inflation is too high, causing the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to control prices, then the dollar will appreciate, which is bad news for Bitcoin that requires a lot of capital to speculate, leading to a price drop.
In simple terms, Bitcoin's situation is very contradictory; it hopes for some inflation to reflect its safe-haven value but fears that it may escalate to a point where the Federal Reserve has to intervene and raise interest rates.
$CFX
$OMNI
$ACH
#ETH重返3800
In summary: The trade situation has eased, Bitcoin has risen in the short term but faces pressure in the long term.
Simply put, what has happened recently?
The United States has temporarily ceased its trade war with the European Union and China, which is good news for the market, so both stocks and Bitcoin have seen some gains.
With the European Union (July 28): The United States agreed to a 15% tariff ceiling, and products sold from the U.S. to Europe do not need to pay tariffs for now.
With China (July 29): The soon-to-expire ceasefire agreement has been extended for another 90 days, allowing everyone to catch their breath.
The core issue remains that this is merely a pause, not an end. The major tariff issues are still present, so market uncertainty remains high.
Why did Bitcoin rise and then fall?
After the easing of trade relations, $BTC also surged, peaking at nearly $120,000, but then it fell back down.
Why did it happen this way?
Without a trade war, people are less fearful of risks, feeling that the market environment is good, and are willing to invest in high-risk, high-return assets like Bitcoin and tech stocks.
However, if negotiations break down again in the future and tariffs are reinstated, everyone will immediately sell off these high-risk assets, and Bitcoin may fall along with the stock market.
Additionally, Bitcoin serves as a safe-haven asset: If tariffs really lead to rising prices of various goods (i.e., inflation), some people will see Bitcoin as digital gold that can preserve value, thus buying Bitcoin to hedge against inflation.
On the other hand, it is a “risk asset”: If inflation is too high, causing the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to control prices, then the dollar will appreciate, which is bad news for Bitcoin that requires a lot of capital to speculate, leading to a price drop.
In simple terms, Bitcoin's situation is very contradictory; it hopes for some inflation to reflect its safe-haven value but fears that it may escalate to a point where the Federal Reserve has to intervene and raise interest rates.
$CFX
$OMNI
$ACH
#ETH重返3800
See original
To make money from the secondary market, you first need to understand the underlying logic of this cycle
This cycle's market rise is led by ETFs, and it may only be led by ETFs.
The capital introduced by ETFs is the lazy money of TradFi. This money mainly wants to buy Bitcoin right now and may next want to buy Ethereum ETFs.
It knows nothing about your L1/L2/AI/DePIN/GameFi projects and has no interest in them.
This massive capital is isolated in top assets, forming a huge value reservoir, but it will not easily flood the entire altcoin market as it did before.
Within crypto, L2s, high-performance L1s, and various modular solutions have created countless independent ecosystems and liquidity pools, with MEME being the customer acquisition weapon for each L1/L2.
Forget about the previous altcoin season logic that you held onto. In the future, there will only be short, violent, narrative-driven ecological altcoin seasons. When a narrative reaches its peak, sell without hesitation, even if it continues to rise afterward. Then convert the profits into stablecoins or $BTC, and look for the next battlefield that is starting to heat up.
$ONDO
$PENDLE
$BNB
#BNB创新高
This cycle's market rise is led by ETFs, and it may only be led by ETFs.
The capital introduced by ETFs is the lazy money of TradFi. This money mainly wants to buy Bitcoin right now and may next want to buy Ethereum ETFs.
It knows nothing about your L1/L2/AI/DePIN/GameFi projects and has no interest in them.
This massive capital is isolated in top assets, forming a huge value reservoir, but it will not easily flood the entire altcoin market as it did before.
Within crypto, L2s, high-performance L1s, and various modular solutions have created countless independent ecosystems and liquidity pools, with MEME being the customer acquisition weapon for each L1/L2.
Forget about the previous altcoin season logic that you held onto. In the future, there will only be short, violent, narrative-driven ecological altcoin seasons. When a narrative reaches its peak, sell without hesitation, even if it continues to rise afterward. Then convert the profits into stablecoins or $BTC, and look for the next battlefield that is starting to heat up.
$ONDO
$PENDLE
$BNB
#BNB创新高
See original
Friends who follow me know that I have recommended $ENA and $CFX countless times in my previous tweets. Currently, both have been launched. It is most comfortable to bet on the coins that launch first in the early stage and then roll over.
#ETH重返3800
#ETH重返3800
See original
Secondary market catalysts, which mainstream tokens are worth paying attention to?
$JTO Jito launched Block Assembly Marketplace, which will bring revolutionary improvements to Solana's transaction packaging process.
$ENA Ethena established a dedicated entity responsible for the ENA treasury strategy; StablecoinX Inc. has raised $260 million, all of which will be used to buy ENA.
$BONK LetsBONK announced that it will allocate 1% of the total revenue from BONKfun from the marketing budget for repurchasing leading trading pairs in the BONK ecosystem.
$AAVE Aave DAO, through a proposal, allows Ink Foundation to launch a white-label lending protocol on the Ink chain.
Several large unlocks: $SUI approximately $179 million, $JUP approximately $29.74 million, $OP approximately $22.69 million.
#GalaxyDigital抛售比特币
$JTO Jito launched Block Assembly Marketplace, which will bring revolutionary improvements to Solana's transaction packaging process.
$ENA Ethena established a dedicated entity responsible for the ENA treasury strategy; StablecoinX Inc. has raised $260 million, all of which will be used to buy ENA.
$BONK LetsBONK announced that it will allocate 1% of the total revenue from BONKfun from the marketing budget for repurchasing leading trading pairs in the BONK ecosystem.
$AAVE Aave DAO, through a proposal, allows Ink Foundation to launch a white-label lending protocol on the Ink chain.
Several large unlocks: $SUI approximately $179 million, $JUP approximately $29.74 million, $OP approximately $22.69 million.
#GalaxyDigital抛售比特币
See original
It's almost the end of the month. Apart from the weekend, the two most important events of this month are coming soon.
-FOMC interest rate decision on July 30
-Spot SolanaETF opinion collection deadline
Beijing time is Thursday
Let's talk about interest rates first. The current interest rate remains in the high range of 4.25% - 4.50%. It is generally believed (CME FedWatch data shows a 97% probability) that this meeting will keep the interest rate unchanged. The market is betting that the Fed's first interest rate cut in September is about 58% likely
The main reason is that inflation is cooling down, but it has not reached the target. The US inflation rate (PCE index) in May has dropped to 2.3%, which is very close to the Fed's 2% target.
The core inflation rate after excluding food and energy is still 2.7%. The Fed dare not relax easily and repeatedly emphasizes relying on subsequent data.
Of course, the Easter eggs of this meeting are more important: the market can only find clues of future policies from the post-meeting statement and Chairman Powell's speech. Any subtle changes in a sentence may trigger violent fluctuations in the US dollar and interest rate markets.
Let's talk about the spot Solana ETF. At present, it seems that the approval process of SOL ETF seems to be accelerating.
The SEC (U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission) requires a new round of materials to be submitted before July 31, otherwise it will be deemed withdrawn. Since the time is much faster than the usual 240 days, it can be seen that the SEC intends to quickly promote the approval of $SOL ETF. The next important time node is the statutory latest approval date of October 10.
In addition, some institutions estimate that after SOL is approved, the daily inflow of funds may reach 150 million to 200 million US dollars, and the projects of the entire Solana ecosystem will benefit. $JTO
$PYTH
#以太坊交易量反超比特币
-FOMC interest rate decision on July 30
-Spot SolanaETF opinion collection deadline
Beijing time is Thursday
Let's talk about interest rates first. The current interest rate remains in the high range of 4.25% - 4.50%. It is generally believed (CME FedWatch data shows a 97% probability) that this meeting will keep the interest rate unchanged. The market is betting that the Fed's first interest rate cut in September is about 58% likely
The main reason is that inflation is cooling down, but it has not reached the target. The US inflation rate (PCE index) in May has dropped to 2.3%, which is very close to the Fed's 2% target.
The core inflation rate after excluding food and energy is still 2.7%. The Fed dare not relax easily and repeatedly emphasizes relying on subsequent data.
Of course, the Easter eggs of this meeting are more important: the market can only find clues of future policies from the post-meeting statement and Chairman Powell's speech. Any subtle changes in a sentence may trigger violent fluctuations in the US dollar and interest rate markets.
Let's talk about the spot Solana ETF. At present, it seems that the approval process of SOL ETF seems to be accelerating.
The SEC (U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission) requires a new round of materials to be submitted before July 31, otherwise it will be deemed withdrawn. Since the time is much faster than the usual 240 days, it can be seen that the SEC intends to quickly promote the approval of $SOL ETF. The next important time node is the statutory latest approval date of October 10.
In addition, some institutions estimate that after SOL is approved, the daily inflow of funds may reach 150 million to 200 million US dollars, and the projects of the entire Solana ecosystem will benefit. $JTO
$PYTH
#以太坊交易量反超比特币
See original
In fact, $BTC and $ETH are based on completely different logic
Trading BTC is like macro investing
Trading ETH is like trading tech stocks
Trading BTC is more similar to trading commodities or government bonds, focusing on macro expectations, ETF buy/sell data, and futures basis. The position rhythm is slow, but you can take a bigger risk because of deep liquidity backing.
$ETH is no longer just an asset; trading ETH is based on the logic of tech stocks + cash flow.
You can treat it as a revenue-generating tech stock, primarily driven by narrative, which is a completely different logic from the macro-driven nature of $BTC. When narratives are scarce, on-chain activity is sluggish, and gas fees are low, inflation will occur, leading to continuous POS sell-offs.
Therefore, applying the BTC approach to ETH may not yield good results, and being fully invested in BTC is definitely more reassuring than being fully invested in ETH. Most institutions and long-term holders also prefer to leverage and go all-in on BTC.
So when the macro environment improves, BTC will rise, but ETH may not necessarily rise. This is why in the early stages of a bull market, BTC generally leads, while ETH tends to start when the macro outlook is sufficiently optimistic, which usually occurs in the later stages of a bull market. This is also why more people tend to be caught up in ETH rather than BTC.
$ENA
$POLYX
$JTO
#以太坊交易量反超比特币
Trading BTC is like macro investing
Trading ETH is like trading tech stocks
Trading BTC is more similar to trading commodities or government bonds, focusing on macro expectations, ETF buy/sell data, and futures basis. The position rhythm is slow, but you can take a bigger risk because of deep liquidity backing.
$ETH is no longer just an asset; trading ETH is based on the logic of tech stocks + cash flow.
You can treat it as a revenue-generating tech stock, primarily driven by narrative, which is a completely different logic from the macro-driven nature of $BTC. When narratives are scarce, on-chain activity is sluggish, and gas fees are low, inflation will occur, leading to continuous POS sell-offs.
Therefore, applying the BTC approach to ETH may not yield good results, and being fully invested in BTC is definitely more reassuring than being fully invested in ETH. Most institutions and long-term holders also prefer to leverage and go all-in on BTC.
So when the macro environment improves, BTC will rise, but ETH may not necessarily rise. This is why in the early stages of a bull market, BTC generally leads, while ETH tends to start when the macro outlook is sufficiently optimistic, which usually occurs in the later stages of a bull market. This is also why more people tend to be caught up in ETH rather than BTC.
$ENA
$POLYX
$JTO
#以太坊交易量反超比特币
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Currently, Ethereum's 'MicroStrategy' $BMNR is leading by a wide margin. If Cathie Wood and Peter Thiel continue to provide this company with ammunition, it will solidify its position in the ETH strategy, and the Ethereum bulldozer mode will be activated.
$ETH
#以太坊交易量反超比特币
$ETH
#以太坊交易量反超比特币
See original
See original
Tomorrow is the expiration date for the monthly $BTC & $ETH options (July 25, 08:00 UTC)
The total open interest (OI) for BTC options is about $40 billion, of which 38% (approximately $15 billion) will settle tomorrow.
The max pain price is $102,000, and the market price has a tendency to converge towards it,
According to conventional analysis, the main tug-of-war range should be between $105,000 and $110,000.
However, the issue is that the current Bitcoin price is at $118,000, and unless there is significant negative news or large-scale institutional hedging, it is almost impossible to drive it back down near $105k, so this delivery will not follow the max-pain downward regression scenario.
Based on the current options OI distribution and Gamma Profile, Bitcoin's new key price zone is between $115k and $120k, and the market is predominantly bullish, so a surge is highly likely.
The key tomorrow is whether $BTC can break through $120k.
$LOKA
$RPL
$CFX
#以太坊交易量反超比特币
The total open interest (OI) for BTC options is about $40 billion, of which 38% (approximately $15 billion) will settle tomorrow.
The max pain price is $102,000, and the market price has a tendency to converge towards it,
According to conventional analysis, the main tug-of-war range should be between $105,000 and $110,000.
However, the issue is that the current Bitcoin price is at $118,000, and unless there is significant negative news or large-scale institutional hedging, it is almost impossible to drive it back down near $105k, so this delivery will not follow the max-pain downward regression scenario.
Based on the current options OI distribution and Gamma Profile, Bitcoin's new key price zone is between $115k and $120k, and the market is predominantly bullish, so a surge is highly likely.
The key tomorrow is whether $BTC can break through $120k.
$LOKA
$RPL
$CFX
#以太坊交易量反超比特币
See original
Summary of which altcoins have applied for ETFs and their issuers
Solana ($SOL)
Applicants: VanEck, Bitwise, 21Shares Core Solana ETF, Canary Marinade Solana ETF, Invesco × Galaxy Solana ETF, etc.
$XRP
Applicants: Grayscale, 21Shares, WisdomTree; additionally, ProShares plans to launch XRP futures ETF in July.
$ONDO (Ondo Finance / RWA)
Issuer: 21Shares Ondo Trust.
File Form S-1 was submitted on 2025-07-22.
Avalanche ($AVAX )
Applicants: VanEck Avalanche Trust (S-1); associated 19b-4 submitted by Cboe BZX.
$BNB (Binance)
Issuer: VanEck BNB ETF.
Plans to become the first ETF tracking BNB in the U.S. and discuss incorporating staking rewards into the structure.
Cardano ($ADA)
Applicants: 21Shares, WisdomTree, CoinShares, and several others have submitted 19b-4; some S-1 drafts are still under review.
Dogecoin ($DOGE)
Applicants: Bitwise, 21Shares; Nasdaq has submitted a rule change for the 21Shares DOGE ETF.
Litecoin ($LTC)
Applicants: Canary Capital, Grayscale, CoinShares; multiple 19b-4 have been officially 'accepted' by the SEC.
Polkadot ($DOT)
Issuer: 21Shares Polkadot Trust; at the same time, Nasdaq submitted a listing application on behalf of Grayscale.
Sui ($SUI)
Issuer: Canary Capital Sui ETF.
Chainlink ($LINK)
Grayscale Chainlink Trust: OTC traded closed-end trust, registered with the SEC but not yet converted to ETF structure; one of the shells for future ETF conversion.
Injective ($INJ)
Issuer: Canary Staked INJ ETF.
Crypto.com Chain / Cronos ($CRO)
Issuer: Canary Staked CRO ETF.
Hedera ($HBAR)
Applicants: Grayscale Spot Hedera ETF.
TRON ($TRX)
Issuer: Canary Staked TRX ETF (spot + staking);
$PENGU (Solana ecosystem Meme / related to Pudgy Penguins)
Issuer: Canary PENGU ETF
#BNB创新高
Solana ($SOL)
Applicants: VanEck, Bitwise, 21Shares Core Solana ETF, Canary Marinade Solana ETF, Invesco × Galaxy Solana ETF, etc.
$XRP
Applicants: Grayscale, 21Shares, WisdomTree; additionally, ProShares plans to launch XRP futures ETF in July.
$ONDO (Ondo Finance / RWA)
Issuer: 21Shares Ondo Trust.
File Form S-1 was submitted on 2025-07-22.
Avalanche ($AVAX )
Applicants: VanEck Avalanche Trust (S-1); associated 19b-4 submitted by Cboe BZX.
$BNB (Binance)
Issuer: VanEck BNB ETF.
Plans to become the first ETF tracking BNB in the U.S. and discuss incorporating staking rewards into the structure.
Cardano ($ADA)
Applicants: 21Shares, WisdomTree, CoinShares, and several others have submitted 19b-4; some S-1 drafts are still under review.
Dogecoin ($DOGE)
Applicants: Bitwise, 21Shares; Nasdaq has submitted a rule change for the 21Shares DOGE ETF.
Litecoin ($LTC)
Applicants: Canary Capital, Grayscale, CoinShares; multiple 19b-4 have been officially 'accepted' by the SEC.
Polkadot ($DOT)
Issuer: 21Shares Polkadot Trust; at the same time, Nasdaq submitted a listing application on behalf of Grayscale.
Sui ($SUI)
Issuer: Canary Capital Sui ETF.
Chainlink ($LINK)
Grayscale Chainlink Trust: OTC traded closed-end trust, registered with the SEC but not yet converted to ETF structure; one of the shells for future ETF conversion.
Injective ($INJ)
Issuer: Canary Staked INJ ETF.
Crypto.com Chain / Cronos ($CRO)
Issuer: Canary Staked CRO ETF.
Hedera ($HBAR)
Applicants: Grayscale Spot Hedera ETF.
TRON ($TRX)
Issuer: Canary Staked TRX ETF (spot + staking);
$PENGU (Solana ecosystem Meme / related to Pudgy Penguins)
Issuer: Canary PENGU ETF
#BNB创新高
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