The CPI data to be released next Tuesday should be the most important barometer.
This CPI directly affects whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. Of course, the reason has been mentioned many times: if inflation is low, the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates, the dollar will weaken, which is very favorable for cryptocurrencies, as there will be more money in the market.
In fact, there are generally two situations:
1. Data is below expectations (good news): This indicates that inflation is under control, and high-risk, highly volatile coins (such as $SOL ecology, RWA concept coins, small second-layer ecological tokens) will rise sharply first.
2. If the data is roughly in line with expectations or slightly higher (bad news): Then the cryptocurrency market is likely to drop first and then gradually stabilize.
Talking about my operational experience, usually, the sharp rise or fall at the moment the data is released is often caused by algorithmic trading and bots, which can be false moves. The real trend usually appears 30 to 90 minutes later, once the movements of U.S. Treasuries and the dollar become clear.
Additionally, if the data is good, but the dollar strengthens instead and Treasury yields rise, it indicates that the market has other negative factors, and it is necessary to cut losses quickly.