What is the probability of ETH breaking through 4000 in the short term?
Looking at ETH ETFs, on August 4th there was a net outflow of approximately -$465 million (mainly ETHA), but on 8/5 there was an inflow of +$73.3 million and on 8/6 +$35.1 million, quickly turning positive.
Additionally, it is worth noting that in the first two weeks of August, the net increase in ETH spot ETF holdings accounted for about 0.3–0.4% of the circulating supply.
In fact, not only $BTC, but $ETH is also close to the bottom of the exchange stock. The general explanation is certainly that selling pressure has decreased, but in reality, the price resistance of $ETH comes more from psychological barriers rather than actual sellable volume.
Moreover, the significant benefits from the EIP-4844 upgrade have not yet been reflected in the price of $ETH . However, if it is still hovering around 3800 this weekend, we will basically need to look at the US CPI next week. This means that if pure capital flow and narrative fundamentals cannot help ETH break through 4000, then it will have to rely on macroeconomic and regulatory benefits to drive it.