Discuss the current situation of tariffs
In summary: The trade situation has eased, Bitcoin has risen in the short term but faces pressure in the long term.
Simply put, what has happened recently?
The United States has temporarily ceased its trade war with the European Union and China, which is good news for the market, so both stocks and Bitcoin have seen some gains.
With the European Union (July 28): The United States agreed to a 15% tariff ceiling, and products sold from the U.S. to Europe do not need to pay tariffs for now.
With China (July 29): The soon-to-expire ceasefire agreement has been extended for another 90 days, allowing everyone to catch their breath.
The core issue remains that this is merely a pause, not an end. The major tariff issues are still present, so market uncertainty remains high.
Why did Bitcoin rise and then fall?
After the easing of trade relations, $BTC also surged, peaking at nearly $120,000, but then it fell back down.
Why did it happen this way?
Without a trade war, people are less fearful of risks, feeling that the market environment is good, and are willing to invest in high-risk, high-return assets like Bitcoin and tech stocks.
However, if negotiations break down again in the future and tariffs are reinstated, everyone will immediately sell off these high-risk assets, and Bitcoin may fall along with the stock market.
Additionally, Bitcoin serves as a safe-haven asset: If tariffs really lead to rising prices of various goods (i.e., inflation), some people will see Bitcoin as digital gold that can preserve value, thus buying Bitcoin to hedge against inflation.
On the other hand, it is a “risk asset”: If inflation is too high, causing the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to control prices, then the dollar will appreciate, which is bad news for Bitcoin that requires a lot of capital to speculate, leading to a price drop.
In simple terms, Bitcoin's situation is very contradictory; it hopes for some inflation to reflect its safe-haven value but fears that it may escalate to a point where the Federal Reserve has to intervene and raise interest rates.