This week continues to revolve around macro fluctuations, with $BTC likely oscillating between $112,000 - $118,000.
The source of volatility mainly comes from the U.S. stress tests, massive national debt, and economic data.
The U.S. Treasury will issue a large amount of new long-term national debt over three consecutive days (from August 5 to 7).
If this national debt auction does not go smoothly, for example, if buyer enthusiasm is low,
then to attract investment, U.S. Treasury yields may be forced to rise.
On the same day (August 5), the U.S. will release the July ISM Services PMI data, which basically reflects whether the U.S. economy is thriving.
If the data is strong (e.g., above 55), the market will worry that the Federal Reserve might reignite thoughts of interest rate hikes, leading to a short-term strengthening of the dollar, putting pressure on non-U.S. assets, including cryptocurrencies.
On the other hand, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision on Thursday (August 7). As mentioned before, a rate cut in the UK essentially means that Europe believes the dollar is about to peak, which can be seen as a boost to sentiment for all risk assets (including the crypto space).
Given the current market sentiment and conditions, the likely scenario is: the U.S. national debt auction passes smoothly, economic data remains lukewarm, and the Bank of England releases mild dovish signals, with bullish and bearish forces offsetting each other, leading Bitcoin to oscillate between 110,000 and 120,000.
Of course, it is also possible that the U.S. national debt auction goes very smoothly, and then economic data shows weakness, allowing $BTC to start breaking upward.