iukoi

Brother Bai has broadcasted for 12 hours, solely for the fans. If you open a single with Brother Bai, he will take responsibility to the end. Thank you to the fans for their companionship, let's earn rice together in 2025.

After holding a bearish position for a day, many people still couldn't hold on and got shaken out during the consolidation. I suggest everyone look for higher points to short; if it breaks 4060, watch for 3800.

Is technical analysis useful?
A complete trading system includes opening and closing rules + capital management. The core of trading lies in capital management, not in opening and closing. Don't spend too much time learning techniques; the real core of trading lies outside the candlestick charts, such as your mindset, emotions, execution ability, and so on.
The ancestor of trading speculation, Livermore, what techniques did he have? In his time, there were no candlestick charts; there were no monitors invented yet. Stock prices were sent over by telegraph and then written down on a blackboard.
Livermore only knew one move: breakthrough, chase! (Similar to Fatty, making breakthroughs)
The trading field requires someone to guide you in; if no one points it out for you, many people will never get out in their lifetime. Many people have spent many years in the trading market, going around in circles, always learning techniques. After learning the theory of cycles, they still lose money; they continue to learn about waves, and after learning about waves, they still lose money, looking for various indicators to study. In the end, after all the learning, their hair has turned white, and they still can't make it work, resulting in losses. For example, a simple opening and closing rule: open long on a strong volume long bar, open short on a strong volume long bar, if wrong, stop loss; if right, move the take profit. Just doing this one rule that you can understand is enough to make you money. We only need to find a technique to learn, then rely on our own experience accumulation to refine some high win-rate opening and closing rules for our own use, and not learn so many random things.
Many people are talking about various indicators. Can indicators really predict future trends? What indicators should we learn?
Indicators do not predict future trends; indicators come from a series of calculations based on prices. First, there are prices, then there are indicators. Why can it predict future trends? Indicators are just a quantification and visualization of price trends and cannot predict future movements. The correct way to use indicators should be to find patterns. You only need to select one indicator and then find the relationship between this indicator and the price. Those colorful indicators on the screen are either meant to deceive you or are half-baked.

1. Active profit-taking, active profit-taking means left-side trading, which is when I feel the price is about to peak, so I reduce my position or close it. For example, if the K-line trend deviates too far from the moving average, or if the sentiment is too heated, there is a high probability of a pullback or a peak. The advantage of active profit-taking is that if you make the right judgment, you can capture all the profits; the disadvantage is that if your judgment is wrong, you may miss out.
2. Passive profit-taking, passive profit-taking is right-side trading, which is waiting for the market to break the upward trend before taking profits. How exactly do you determine that the upward trend has been broken? For example, if it breaks below a certain moving average, you might feel that the rise has ended and a downward trend is about to begin, or it could break below the neckline (as mentioned in price pattern analysis); the advantage of passive profit-taking is that if the market is significant, you won’t miss out, but the downside is that most markets are not that significant, and often you will only be slightly late.
There is no absolute distinction between active and passive profit-taking; each has its advantages and disadvantages. There is also a pretty amazing profit-taking method called 'not taking profits.' Any logic for determining tops and bottoms has its flaws; whether it’s left-side trading or right-side trading, it’s really all about probability. You might think the market has peaked, but it actually hasn’t. For example, did you think Bitcoin would rise to 100,000 ten years ago? Or Dogecoin, SOL, etc., which have risen hundreds of times? Only by never taking profits can you capture this kind of increase. Although not taking profits can be incredible when encountering a super strong market, allowing you to achieve the maximum and most unimaginable profits—as long as you get it right, you won't have to work for years—the downside is also very obvious: 99% of the time, the market isn't that big, and most of the time, you won’t make money.