Good morning, community colleagues. SOL has failed to maintain its independent strong momentum, getting stuck around $186. Like the broader market, its contract market is facing a dual squeeze from macro headwinds and key technical level tests. This post will continue using a structured analytical framework to deeply analyze the current long/short landscape of the SOL contract market from technical, funding sentiment, and macro perspectives.
Core Long/Short Factor Analysis
1. Technical Analysis: Daily trend diverges from four-hour chart
· Daily chart (Daily Chart) - Bullish structure not broken, but showing fatigue: At the daily level, SOL is still in a clear uptrend channel, with the moving average system showing a bullish arrangement. However, prices have consistently formed upper shadows in the historical high region, indicating heavy selling pressure at high levels. The current core support has moved up to the $175-$178 area (MA20 moving average and previous platform), which can be seen as the lifeline of this medium-term trend. If breached, it will trigger a deeper technical pullback, looking down to $165 (MA50).
· Four-hour chart (4H Chart) - Short-term structure weakens: More critically, the four-hour chart shows that prices have broken below the short-term uptrend line since late July. The MACD indicator has formed a death cross above the zero axis and is extending downward, with green momentum bars disappearing and red momentum bars appearing and increasing, indicating that short-term downward momentum is strengthening. Current prices are oscillating in the $180-$186 rectangle range, with direction pending.
2. Funding Rate and Market Sentiment
· Funding rate turns negative: At major exchanges, the funding rate for SOL perpetual contracts has shifted from a previous positive value to a weak negative or neutral value. This change indicates that market sentiment has shifted from extreme FOMO (fear of missing out) to caution, with short positions gaining strength in the short term, necessitating that longs pay fees to maintain their positions.
· Divergence between high open interest (OI) and price stagnation: Although prices are stagnating or even retreating at high levels, the total open interest remains relatively high. This usually indicates that new short positions are being established, or that both long and short sides are engaged in intense chip exchange at this position. In a downtrend, this is often seen as a signal for a “continuation downtrend.”
3. Macro liquidity tightening: An unavoidable headwind
· Federal Reserve's hawkish expectations suppress: This is the biggest common denominator negative for all risk assets currently. The market's expectations for a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September continue to heat up, leading to a stronger dollar and global capital flowing out of high-risk assets. As a high Beta cryptocurrency, SOL cannot remain unaffected, and its valuation is severely suppressed.
4. The contest between “Alpha” and “Beta” in ecological fundamentals
· Bullish (Alpha factors): The total locked value (TVL) of the Solana ecosystem has reached a historical high of $8.6 billion, indicating that funds are still flooding into its DeFi, NFT, and DePIN niches. At the same time, the expectation of a spot ETF remains a unique bullish narrative that distinguishes it from other altcoins; any related positive news could reverse the situation.
· Bearish (Beta factors): SOL also cannot escape the systemic risks of the cryptocurrency market. If major coins like BTC and ETH weaken due to macro pressures, SOL’s “Alpha” will also struggle to stand out, and a correlated drop is highly probable.
Market Outlook and Key Observations
· Short-term (1-3 days): Market sentiment is cautious, with a focus on the effectiveness of the support range at $180-$182. If broken with volume, it will confirm the continuation of the downward trend at the four-hour level, and prices will quickly test the $175-$178 area. On the upside, watch for resistance at $189-$191; only a breakout with volume here can alleviate short-term downward pressure.
· Medium-term (1-4 weeks): The reversal of the trend depends on two points: first, a marginal improvement in macro policy (the Federal Reserve releasing dovish signals); second, the SOL ecosystem itself developing breakout-level applications or events that strengthen its “Alpha” attributes and attract independent buying.
Contract Trading Recommendations
1. Go with the trend (short-term): Do not blindly catch falling knives before the four-hour trend line (currently about $188) is strongly reclaimed. Each rebound to the $186-$189 area can be seen as an opportunity for short-term shorting or reducing positions.
2. Key Level Trading (Medium-term): For traders with a positive long-term outlook, this is certainly not the time to chase highs. One should patiently wait for prices to pull back to the “value range” of $175-$178 or even $165 before gradually positioning long orders. Set stop-loss at the daily structure breakdown level (such as below $170).
3. Strict risk control: Current market volatility has sharply amplified due to macro uncertainties. It is essential to reduce leverage (recommended not exceeding 3-5 times) and set clear stop-loss points for each trade.
4. Beware of “short squeeze” risks: Negative funding rates and high open interest are breeding grounds for “short squeezes.” If a significant positive catalyst suddenly drives prices up rapidly, short covering may accelerate the rebound.$SOL