$ETH Fellow traders, ETH is stuck around 4300 USD, with both bulls and bears fiercely battling. Simply shouting long or short is irresponsible.
1. Four-hour chart (4H Chart) - Bears currently hold the advantage, key support is critical.
· Pattern: The price has broken below the lower boundary of the short-term rising channel since the end of July, which is a short-term weakening signal. It is currently attempting to build a short-term 'descending flag' or a consolidation platform.
· Key position:
· Resistance: 4350 - 4400 USD (previous support turned resistance, also the lower boundary pressure of the channel)
· Core support: 4200 USD (recently tested low point, also a psychological level). Once effectively broken, short-term downward space will open up, with the next target in the 4050 - 4080 area.
· Indicators:
· MACD: Operating below the zero axis, although the histogram is narrowing, it has not turned positive, indicating a bearish short-term momentum.
· RSI: Hovering in the 40-50 range, neither entering the oversold zone (below 30) nor strongly returning to the bullish zone (above 50), direction unclear.
▶ Short-term conclusion: The four-hour chart leans towards bearish. Traders should use 4350 as the short-term bull-bear dividing line; below this level, any rebound is an opportunity to short. The primary goal is to hold above 4200.
2. Daily chart (Daily Chart) - Long-term trend remains, but shows signs of fatigue.
· Pattern: On the daily level, ETH is still in a massive upward trend, with all major moving averages (such as MA50, MA200) still arranged bullishly, which is fundamentally bullish in the long term. However, recently, several daily candlesticks have closed with long upper shadows, indicating strong selling pressure at high levels.
· Key position:
· Resistance: 4500 USD (historical previous high and psychological round number).
· Support: 4050 USD (near MA50 daily average) and 3800 USD (near MA100 daily average). These two are the lifelines of the medium to long-term trend.
· Potential risks of 'golden cross' and 'death cross':
· Currently, the fast and slow lines (such as EMA12 and EMA26) are still in a 'golden cross' state, but the fast line shows a trend of flattening and approaching the slow line.
· Warning: If the price continues to fall, once the fast line crosses below the slow line, a 'death cross' will form, which will be a strong mid-term bearish signal and could trigger larger-scale sell-offs.
▶ Daily conclusion: The long-term bullish structure has not been broken, but it has entered a 'high-risk, high-volatility' area. Any pullback, 4050 and 3800 are key 'value zones' that determine whether the trend can continue.
[Trading strategy recommendations]
If you are an aggressive bear:
· Entry: Gradually build short positions when the four-hour level rebounds to the 4300 - 4350 range.
· Targets: First target 4200 (hold if broken), second target 4050 - 4080.
· Stop loss: Firmly set above 4450 (above the previous daily high).
If you are a conservative bull:
· Remember: This is definitely not the time to chase the bulls! Be patient and wait for a pullback to the key support level before gradually positioning.
· Entry area: 4050 - 4100 (MA50 support zone) or 3800 - 3850 (MA100 support zone).
· Stop loss: If it effectively breaks below 3750 (daily structure is damaged), then exit the position.
· Signal: Wait for the four-hour MACD to re-establish a golden cross and rise above the zero axis, or for the RSI to form a bottom divergence before considering adding positions.
If you are a spectator:
· The best strategy is to wait! Wait for the market to make its own directional choice. Either wait for a price breakout above 4450 to confirm a strong return, or wait for the price to drop to the 4050 or even 3800 value range to buy the dip. Acting at the current middle position offers a very unfavorable risk-reward ratio.