Current Situation: ETH currently reports 4813, daily line breaks above the previous high of 4700 and consolidates with reduced volume. The 4-hour RSI is at 62, MACD shows a golden cross but momentum slightly slows, indicating bulls dominate under interest rate cut expectations but are becoming cautious. The market is pricing in a 90% probability of a rate cut in September.
🔥 Core Bullish and Bearish Drivers
Bullish Logic (Expectation Dominates):
1. Strengthening Rate Cut Expectations: If economic data (especially this week's PMI/employment data) aligns, there is sufficient momentum to speculate on a rate cut in advance
2. Technical Structure Solid: 4700 has turned from resistance to support, the breakout validity is high, and on-chain data shows a large amount of buy orders accumulated at 4750-4780
3. Ecological Advantage: Layer2 active addresses reach a new high, staking APR remains stable, and the fundamentals are strong against short-term volatility
Bearish Risks (Expectation Game):
· 'Buy the expectation, sell the fact' risk: If the positive effects before the September rate cut are overdrawn, or the actual rate cut is less than expected, it may trigger collective profit-taking sell-offs
· Derivative Overheating: The average funding rate of perpetual contracts reaches 0.05%, and some exchanges have high long leverage ratios
🎯 Key Position
· Support: 4750 (breakout confirmation point), 4680 (20-day EMA + macro sentiment watershed)
· Resistance: 4880 (historical high extension trendline), 5000 (psychological round number)
🚀 Trading Strategy
Bullish Strategy (trend-following but cautious):
· Current Price Operation: Not advisable to chase highs, wait for a pullback to the 4770-4790 area to stabilize before taking positions in batches (stop loss at 4730)
· Follow-up on Breakout: After stabilizing above 4850 with volume, take small long positions (stop loss at 4780, target at 4950+)
Short Hedge Opportunity:
· Only for short-term: If the price rises to 4880-4900 and there is a 4-hour RSI divergence, can take small short positions (stop loss at 4930, target at 4800)
⚡ Risk Control Focus
1. Data Monitoring: This week's key focus:
· Global PMI data on August 23
· US PCE Price Index on August 30
(If data exceeds expectations strongly, it may weaken rate cut expectations and trigger a pullback)
2. Leverage Control: Expecting increased market volatility, recommend leverage ≤ 3x
3. Expectation Management: Plan two contingencies in advance:
· If rate cut expectations continue to heat up → hold long positions until $5000+
· If economic data reverses expectations → decisively reduce positions and retreat $ETH
