Current Situation: BTC currently at 116,500, fluctuating in a historical high range. The 4-hour chart forms a range between 115,000-118,000, with MACD flattening and RSI at 58, indicating a temporary balance between long and short. The market is primarily driven by the Fed's rate cut expectation in September (90% probability), with short-term trends dominated by macro sentiment.
🔥 Core Long-Short Drivers
Long Logic:
1. Rate Cut Expectation Support: If subsequent economic data (especially this week's PCE) is moderate, funds speculating on early rate cuts may continue to flow in
2. Technical Structure Unbroken: 115,000 forms short-term support, daily moving average system remains bullish
3. Institutional Positions Steady: Bitcoin ETF has seen net inflows for four consecutive weeks, BlackRock's IBIT position reaches an all-time high
Short Risk:
· Profit-Taking Pressure: If the market reacts calmly after the rate cut in September, it may trigger a 'sell the fact' scenario
· High Leverage Risk: The overall long-short ratio reaches 1.2, crowded long leverage may trigger a liquidation cascade
· Technical Divergence: Daily RSI has not synchronized to a new high, forming a potential divergence signal
🎯 Key Position
· Support: 115,000 (lower range of the box + long defense line), 112,000 (20-day EMA lifeline)
· Resistance: 118,000 (upper range of the box), 120,000 (psychological round number)
🚀 Operation Strategy
Long Strategy (Mainly Buy on Dips):
· Ideal Long: After a pullback stabilizes in the 115,200-115,800 range, position gradually (stop loss at 114,500)
· Breakout Long: After stabilizing above 118,200 with volume, light long positions can be pursued (stop loss at 117,000, target 120,000+)
Short Hedging Opportunity:
· If the price rises to 118,000-119,000 and shows 4-hour KDJ overbought (>90), a light short position can be taken (stop loss at 120,500, target 116,000)
⚡ Risk Control Focus
1. Data Monitoring: This week's core focus is on the August 30th US PCE Price Index; if the data exceeds expectations, it may dampen rate cut expectations
2. Leverage Control: Historical high volatility amplifies, recommend leverage ≤ 3x, reserving space for averaging down
3. Event Warning:
· September 6th Non-Farm Data (last key data before rate cut)
· September 18th Fed Interest Rate Decision (expected decision day)