Current situation: SOL is currently priced at $180.5, accurately touching the key daily support zone ($180-$182). The 4-hour MACD has a death cross below the zero line, but the green bars are decreasing in volume. RSI is approaching 40, indicating a short-term oversold condition with a demand for rebound, but a stabilization signal needs to be confirmed.
Core bullish and bearish drivers:
1. Bullish factors:
· $180-$182 serves as a strong daily support level, including the 20-day moving average and previous high platform, providing a technical basis for a rebound.
· The Solana ecosystem's TVL remains at a historic high (over $8.6 billion), and the fundamentals have not deteriorated.
· If the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes are dovish, it may drive a market rebound, and SOL will have greater elasticity.
2. Bearish risk:
· If it breaks down with increased volume below $180, the technical structure turns bearish, significantly increasing the risk of a drop to $175 (50-day moving average).
· Macro sentiment is still under pressure from interest rate hike expectations, and the high Beta nature makes SOL susceptible to market pullbacks.
Key position:
· Resistance: $185 (immediate resistance), $189 (breakout target $195)
· Support: **$180 (the line of life and death for bulls and bears)**, $175 (trend defense line), $170
Operational strategy:
· Bullish opportunity: The current price of $180.5 is in a high-risk speculative zone. **Be sure to wait for a bullish signal on the 1-hour chart** (such as a long lower shadow or a bullish engulfing pattern) before lightly testing long positions, with a target of $185 and stop loss at $178.5.
· Short opportunity: If the price rebounds to $184-$185 and shows signs of stagnation (must combine with volume decrease and upper shadow), consider shorting with a target of $181 and stop loss at $187.
· Follow the breakout: If it breaks down below $178** with increased volume, target $175 for shorting; if it breaks above $186** with increased volume, target $189 for going long.
Risk management focus:
· Tonight's Federal Reserve meeting minutes are the biggest variable, and leverage must be reduced (≤3x) and positions scaled down beforehand!
· SOL is highly volatile, and any single loss must be controlled to ≤2% of total funds.