Current Situation: ETH is currently at $4229, facing resistance at the $4280 level on the 4-hour chart, with daily support still holding at the key level of $4150. MACD is converging near the zero line, RSI is at 48, with bullish and bearish momentum temporarily balanced, waiting for a direction choice.
Core Bull-Bear Drivers:
1. Bullish Factors:
· The net inflow of Ethereum ETFs remains positive, and institutional holdings are stable.
· If it breaks $4280 or triggers a short squeeze, it could accelerate upward.
2. Bearish Factors:
· The rising expectation of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September suppresses risk assets, putting pressure on the market.
· If it loses support at $4150, it may trigger technical selling, probing down to $4050 (50-day moving average).
Key Levels:
· Resistance: $4280 (breakout target $4350), $4420 (previous high)
· Support: $4150 (daily bull-bear dividing line), $4050 (trend lifeline)
Trading Suggestions:
· Bullish: Current price is not suitable for chasing highs. If it stabilizes after retracing to $4150-$4180 (must combine 1-hour candlestick bullish signals), consider light positions to go long, target $4280, stop-loss $4120.
· Bearish: If it rebounds to $4270-$4300 and stagnates, consider shorting, target $4180, stop-loss $4330.
· Breakout Trade: Go long after breaking and stabilizing above $4300 (target $4420); Go short after breaking below $4150 (target $4050).
Risk Control Reminder:
· In the evening, pay attention to the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes and statements, be wary of increased volatility!
· Strict stop-loss (suggested ≤3% position loss), avoid high leverage (≤5x).
