The cryptocurrency market today (19th) experienced increased volatility, with Bitcoin falling below $115,000 and Ethereum retreating to the $4,200 mark, triggering over $300 million in leveraged positions in the derivatives market to be liquidated, primarily concentrated in Bitcoin and Ethereum long positions.
This correction is accompanied by a rapid cooling of expectations for a rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) in September. According to data from prediction platform Polymarket, the probability of 'no rate cut' surged from an original 12% to 26%, causing a sharp shift in market sentiment, leading some investors to choose to adjust their risk positions in advance in preparation for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's upcoming speech at the 'Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting.'
Derive.xyz founder Nick Forster described this drop more as a 'short-term position reset' rather than a structural reversal.
According to CoinGlass statistics, the total liquidation amount in the cryptocurrency market over the past 24 hours reached $329 million, with Ethereum long positions accounting for $83.13 million and Bitcoin long positions reaching $44.78 million.
Nick Forster mentioned that with the dream of interest rate cuts fading, investors' bets on the September market are being reshuffled: the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 before the end of September has risen from 15% to 21%; meanwhile, the probability of Ethereum falling below $4,000 by the end of the month has surged to 60%.
Institutional support vs. retail exit
Singapore market maker Enflux noted in its report that the market is currently being pulled by two forces: on one hand, institutions show strong confidence, such as Strategy doubling down on 430 bitcoins and making structural financing adjustments; on the other hand, retail investors lack follow-through momentum, leading to market weakness in climbing.
Enflux also mentioned that asset management company VanEck reiterated its target price for Bitcoin to reach $180,000 by the end of this year, highlighting that institutional funds are positioning for a continued bullish trend. However, retail investor favorite themes, such as Ripple (XRP) and Dogecoin (DOGE), are constrained by the ongoing delays in ETF approvals by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
In contrast, Solana (SOL) has emerged as a highlight. Enflux points out that, with its dominant position in USDC stablecoin transfers and the advantages of the new token issuance platform PumpFun, Solana demonstrates 'latent resilience.'
The derivatives market is becoming more conservative.
Despite institutional support, the derivatives market shows that investors are becoming cautious.
Singapore cryptocurrency investment firm QCP Capital pointed out in its latest market update that the perpetual contract funding rate has turned negative over the weekend, which often indicates a short-term pullback; at the same time, the skew of options across various maturities also shows rising demand for puts (bearish options), representing an increase in market defensive sentiment.
"Bitcoin falls below $115,000, Ethereum retreats to $4,200! The market holds its breath waiting for Powell's speech" This article was first published on (BlockKe).
