1. The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September is as high as 84.6%.
According to CME's 'FedWatch' data, as of August 18, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 84.6%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 15.4%. Additionally, the probability of maintaining the rate in October is 6%, with the cumulative probabilities of rate cuts of 25 and 50 basis points being 42.4% and 51.5%, respectively. -Original text
2. Trump claims significant progress has been made in U.S.-Russia relations.
On August 17, former U.S. President Trump stated that significant progress has been made in U.S.-Russia relations and called for outside attention. -Original text
3. Traders made a profit of $29.6 million by going long on ETH in 4 months.
A trader on the Hyperliquid platform turned a principal of $125,000 into $29.6 million in 4 months by going long on ETH, achieving a return rate of 236 times. He compounded profits using two accounts, ultimately building a position of 66,749 contracts of ETH, with a total value of approximately $303 million. Currently, the total equity of these two accounts has grown from $125,000 to $29.6 million. -Original text
4. The U.S. Treasury Department plans to embed digital identity verification in DeFi.
The U.S. Treasury Department has initiated a public consultation to plan the integration of digital identity verification tools into DeFi smart contracts to combat illegal financial activities. The proposal includes automatically executing KYC/AML checks through API interfaces and using biometric technology to reduce compliance costs. The public consultation will continue until October 17, 2025, after which the Treasury will submit a report to Congress and may introduce related new regulations. -Original text
5. Japan will approve its first stablecoin denominated in yen, JPYC.
Nikkei News discloses that Japan's Financial Services Agency will approve the country's first issuance of a stablecoin denominated in yen, JPYC, this month. The Financial Services Agency will register the fintech company JPYC Inc. as a remittance business, and sales are expected to begin within weeks after registration. This digital currency will be backed by liquid assets such as government bonds to maintain its value stable at 1 JPYC = 1 yen. -Original text
6. A giant whale sold 30,000 ETH in 24 hours, intensifying market panic.
Click the link to enter the Tencent meeting: https://meeting.tencent.com/p/9850662513 On-chain data sounds the alarm: multiple mysterious addresses concentrated on selling over 30,000 ETH within 24 hours, worth approximately $172 million. Among them, institutional giant Galaxy Digital was monitored withdrawing 37,808 ETH from multiple exchanges, while another address 0xE75 also transferred out 17,591 ETH from Coinbase during the same period. This unusual activity quickly ignited market panic—did the whales sense a collapse? The triple motivations behind the sell-off: 【Warning of staking ecosystem collapse】 Ethereum validators exited the queue, soaring to 671,900 ETH (approximately $3.1 billion) on August 14, hitting a historical peak, far exceeding new staking demand. Lido, EtherFi, and Coinbase became the main platforms for exits, among which Lido's stETH withdrawal pressure was the most prominent. This 'staking exodus' stemmed from circular leverage. 【Regulatory game and arbitrage drive】 With BlackRock applying for an ETH staking ETF, institutional funds are accelerating their shift from decentralized platforms like Lido to compliant custodians like Coinbase. Meanwhile, stETH and ETH previously experienced a 0.3% decoupling, attracting arbitrageurs to profit from unstaking arbitrage. Currently, 278,000 wstETH are marked as 'high risk' (health coefficient 1-1.1), and if the decoupling worsens, it may trigger a chain liquidation in DeFi. 【Technical breakdown ignites liquidation bomb】 ETH's price plummeted by 4.13% on August 16, breaking through the key support of $4,400; although it rebounded to $4,489, the derivatives market saw $549 million liquidated within an hour. If ETH further drops below $4,330, the scale of long liquidations across the network will reach $2.94 billion, potentially triggering a 'death spiral'. Exit or switch positions? The institutional tug-of-war of long and short positions. 【Giant whale sell-off is not universally bearish】 —Exiting side: Apart from Galaxy Digital's large withdrawals, addresses associated with the Ethereum Foundation sold 1,694 ETH for $7.72 million within two hours, raising market speculation about high-level reductions. —Buying side: BlackRock's ETHA fund defied the trend, attracting $338 million, increasing its holdings by 105,900 ETH in a single day; BitMine even purchased 106,485 ETH worth $470 million within 10 hours. This differentiation highlights the institutional expectation game regarding ETH—ETF funding is hedging against staking withdrawals, and Galaxy Digital's report indicates that ETH treasury earnings are digesting the selling pressure from institutional inflows. —Critical point: $4,330 determines the bull-bear lifeline. The current critical point for ETH is whether it can hold the liquidation defense line at $4,330. If it breaks, $2.94 billion in long positions will vanish; conversely, if it can break through $4,891, it will trigger $1.248 billion in short liquidations, becoming a catalyst for an upward movement. The giant whale's sell-off may be a warning bell for leverage collapse, but BlackRock's substantial bets imply that this exit is more likely a 'planned retreat' by institutions. When the tide of staking recedes and the ETF advance collides, the battle for Ethereum's $5,000 high ground has just begun. Operational advice: —BTC long at 117,150, first target at 118,150, second target at 119,350; —ETH long at 4,405, first target at 4,460, second target at 4,515. Join the speech community group for more services: 1. Real-time analysis (one-on-one problem-solving and organization online) 2. Professional technical analysis and theoretical learning 3. Trading system construction and enhancement 4. Daily live courses, contract analysis, real-time trading, helping you succeed! Teachers in the group provide accurate points daily to answer questions and offer free guidance. Tencent Meeting Live: 985-066-2513 DingTalk group number: 120320009032 Teachers in the group provide accurate points daily to answer questions and offer free guidance! Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal views and is for exchange and sharing purposes only, not representing AICoin's position and views, and does not constitute any investment advice. Investing based on this may have external contact, and AICoin is not responsible for the consequences. -Original text
7. Next week, tokens worth $150 million will be unlocked, including FTN and ZRO.
Next week, two crypto projects will unlock tokens, releasing a total value of approximately $150 million. On August 20, ZRO will unlock about 25.7 million tokens (approximately $55.27 million), accounting for 2.571% of the total supply; on August 21, FTN will unlock about 20 million tokens (approximately $90.8 million), accounting for 2.0% of the total supply. -Original text
8. Tom Lee says Bitcoin reserves will help the U.S. lead in digital transformation.
On August 17, Tom Lee, chairman of BitMine's board, forwarded U.S. Treasury Secretary Besant's tweet regarding Bitcoin's strategic reserves, stating that establishing strategic Bitcoin reserves is an important measure to ensure that the U.S. maintains its dominance in digital transformation. Besant mentioned in the tweet that confiscated Bitcoins will form the basis of strategic reserves, and the Treasury is exploring budget-neutral ways to expand reserves to help the U.S. become a Bitcoin superpower. -Original text
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