Event Review 📜
On the evening of August 20, 2025, the ETH price experienced a fierce fluctuation. Starting from testing support around $4,100, it quickly broke through the critical level of $4,300, then retraced to $4,281. The entire process was filled with the shadows of institutional funds, large whale orders, and high-leverage operations. Multiple traders in the market issued buy signals, while massive ETH transfers and leveraged trading operations continuously validated the active entry of funds, pushing the price up rapidly. The news indicated that starting at 22:21, ETH found support at a key resistance level, and from 22:30 onwards, institutional funds and whales entered the market, driving the price up sharply, reaching a short-term peak by 23:25, followed by a slight pullback at 23:45.
Timeline ⏰
22:21: The market witnessed ETH successfully turning from resistance to support around $4,100, indicating that bulls may be coming.
22:27: Some traders issued buy signals, with entry prices and stop-loss targets announced one after another, increasing market attention.
22:30: ETH price stabilized in the range of $4,157–$4,158, with institutional funds beginning to actively intervene.
22:30–23:16: In just 46 minutes, the price surged from $4,157 to $4,290, demonstrating a strong fund-driven effect.
23:07–23:09: Coinbase Institutional continuously transferred a large amount of ETH to Coinbase, confirming the push from institutional large orders.
23:16: 'Rolling Warehouse Brother' opened a long position of 3,694 ETH with 25x leverage, further reinforcing the technical breakout signal.
23:22: ETH price broke through $4,300 for the first time, confirming that buying power continues to strengthen.
23:25: The price briefly climbed to $4,307, reaching a short-term peak.
23:45: The market saw a brief pullback, with ETH price stabilizing around $4,281.14.
Reason Analysis 🔎
The current dramatic fluctuations in ETH are mainly due to the following two reasons:
Institutional funds and large whale orders boost prices.
Recent large ETH transfers and high-leverage operations (such as 'Rolling Warehouse Brother' using 25x leverage for long positions) indicate a clear expectation from institutions and whales regarding market trends. Once the key resistance level was broken, buying power quickly concentrated, forming a capital linkage effect that pushed the price to rise significantly in a very short time.Expectations of macro policies and fluctuations in market sentiment.
Meanwhile, frequent news about the Federal Reserve's policy direction and regulatory dynamics has sparked debates among investors regarding future liquidity expectations. Some market participants believe that expectations of interest rate cuts may bring a comprehensive market recovery, while others worry that regulatory measures and policy uncertainty may lead to cautious operations in the market. This divergence in expectations directly affects the sentiment of market participants and intensifies price volatility.
Technical Analysis 🛠️
This technical analysis is based on Binance USDT perpetual contract ETH/USDT 45-minute candlestick chart data:
Indicator Performance
The J-value is in an extremely overbought state, indicating a high risk of short-term pullback.
The KDJ indicator shows a divergent state, indicating increased upward momentum.
Although the OBV indicator has shown a sell signal by crossing below the moving average, overall large purchases still support the price upward.
Moving Average Situation
Short-term moving averages (MA5, MA10, MA20) show a bullish arrangement, with clear short-term bullish signals.
Although the price is below the EMA120 moving average, it is currently operating within the EMA24/EMA52 range, showing a strong medium-short-term trend.
Candlestick Patterns and Trading Volume
A doji appeared on the candlestick chart, indicating strong market hesitation, which may signal a trend change is imminent.
Trading volume has significantly increased compared to the 10-day and 20-day moving averages, indicating heightened activity in the short and medium term, supported by large orders and explosive order data validating the market's funding surge.
Explosive orders and large transactions.
In the past hour, the total explosive order amount reached tens of millions of dollars, with large transactions showing a net inflow of $50 million, further confirming active fund participation.
Market Outlook 🔮
In the short term, ETH is likely to oscillate between $4,300 and $4,370. The short-term overbought condition may prompt some pullback, but if institutional funds and whale orders continue to intervene, further increases are expected. Looking at the mid-term, as macro policy dynamics and market sentiment gradually clarify, ETH may find its upward rhythm again, though high volatility also signifies that risks should not be overlooked.
Investors should pay attention to the following when operating:
Closely monitor key technical indicators and changes in trading volume, and reasonably adjust take-profit and stop-loss strategies.
Beware of short-term pullback risks, and build positions in batches to avoid potential losses from large fluctuations.
Combine macro policies and liquidity changes to flexibly respond to shifts in market sentiment.
Summary
The recent dramatic fluctuations in ETH reflect the combined effects of institutional funds, large whale orders, and high-leverage operations, along with rapid changes in policy expectations and market sentiment. Technically, multiple indicators based on the 45-minute candlestick chart show strong short-term buying power, but risk signals also exist. Looking ahead, investors should place a high emphasis on risk control and flexibly adjust positions to seize opportunities in this volatile market.
