After coming back from a tour, Bitcoin remains at this position, and the long-short energy ratio of Ethereum has hardly changed, while altcoins are still sluggish. The difference between me and everyone else is that during this phase of market stagnation, I got to appreciate the beautiful landscapes of our country. Only by going out can one realize that the concept of consumption downgrade, which has been shouted for the past two years, does not exist in certain specific groups. In the future, where the market may still rise, let’s make good profits, everyone.
In the past week, the crypto market has been very lively. The DGCX, which was promoted as a stablecoin investment, has reportedly run away with 18 billion, leading to an official risk warning announcement from a key economic zone in the south. The operators have now publicly fled, arrogantly claiming they only took the money that was beyond everyone's recognition. This is the first time in four years that we've seen such arrogance in fleeing. Another piece of gossip is that DGCX did not manage to escape successfully.
In my view, whether in the crypto market or the traditional financial market, wealth is not a reward for hard work but a compensation for understanding. Only in areas we are familiar with and within our capacity can we steadily achieve consistent results. Otherwise, it’s just a smaller version of a cooling-off period; we may occasionally have the opportunity to make big profits, but there will definitely be scenarios where we lose everything, and we do not have the infinite blood-creation ability that some have.
Retail investors' opportunities in stablecoins are not on the same level as those policymakers. For us, outside of OTC, there is currently no way to profit from the concept of stablecoins. However, necessary regulations and linking with fiat currency are essential decisions to keep pace with the global market. If you are not an issuer of stablecoins, participating in the market is like trading Q coins; what opportunities do you really have, right?
In the week when I left the market, Bitcoin's spot ETF had a net inflow of 769 million USD, and Ethereum's spot ETF had a net inflow of 219 million USD. Yesterday, Bitcoin's spot ETF had a net inflow of 80.08 million USD, while Ethereum's had a net inflow of 46.63 million USD. The total market cap of stablecoins currently stands at 255.433 billion USD, and last week, a total of 54 real companies reported their BTC treasury, accumulating an increase of 8434 Bitcoins.
The much-discussed 'Big and Beautiful' bill was signed into effect last Friday, placing Musk firmly on the opposite side of Trump. In simple terms, the controversy surrounding the 'Big and Beautiful' bill relates to the unlimited increase of the debt ceiling and cuts to public budgets, which will cause a short-term flood of capital in the market without considering the future social development of the world. To put it bluntly, it's like that classic advertisement: 'Spend tomorrow's money to fulfill today's dreams.' Facing the current issues, the American empire has no other solution; as long as everyone is in the same boat, as long as he's not the last one standing, the right and wrong will be judged by future generations, leaving the huge problems to be dealt with by his successors.
So in the short term, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are reaching new highs, and the Dow Jones is about to hit new highs; as long as everyone can make money, that's all that matters. On a side note, after Trump raised the debt ceiling during his last term, the US stock market hit new highs, followed closely by Bitcoin, which increased over 35% within two months. The US stock market has now reached new highs, waiting for Bitcoin's performance.
Regarding tariffs, aside from Japan and South Korea, no final agreements have been reached with other parties. However, based on previous performance, Trump's logic of 'lifting high and putting down lightly' is unlikely to lead to direct confrontation with any particular region. As he said, everything will be in place by early August at the latest. Based on this, there won't be much time left for major players to accumulate and wash positions.
Tonight at 2 AM, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes from the June meeting, which is expected to bring short-term market fluctuations. Currently, based on the news, there seems to be a consensus that the interest rate will remain unchanged in July. In terms of market cycles, after tonight until the end of this month's meeting, and then next month's Jackson Hole annual meeting, these will become turning points that stimulate the market to gradually rise, leading to an overall explosion of the market by September when another rate cut is expected.
That said, the message I want to convey is that the market has indeed entered its final phase. The last climax will be wild and extremely irrational. We cannot judge the ultimate height of the market. Amid the FOMO noise, do not lose yourself; it's best to take profits when you can. If the price change happens as expected, we should see directional movement this week.
BTC: Bitcoin has been adjusting around the high of 108,000 points recently, with the volatile range looking increasingly distant from the bottom support and closer to the upper resistance. In terms of volume, Bitcoin hasn't seen much data movement in the short term; the ancient-level whale accounts confirmed to be wallet upgrades. In the absence of any other anomalies, Bitcoin's risks are certainly manageable, and it may gradually test breakthrough levels. However, compared to Ethereum, its strength is indeed lacking; let's continue to observe.
ETH: Ethereum has been gaining strength again in the past couple of days, showing some signs of a potential breakout. However, looking back at history, similar movements in Ethereum have occurred many times, so let's hope it doesn't turn out to be a false alarm. The off-exchange market has a generally optimistic outlook for Ethereum; continue to buy on dips. In terms of cyclical trends, I believe Ethereum can reach a temporary high of 3500 points before mid-next month.
SOL: The correlation between Solana and on-chain market sentiment is relatively high, but structurally, it is at a short-term decision point just like Bitcoin. Those who bought the Solana phone last year should pay attention, as shipments will start next month, requiring overseas addresses for delivery. If you are not sure how to operate, you can seek assistance from Wu Bing.
Altcoin market: The 1800 points mentioned earlier for MKR offered an opportunity, with a maximum pullback of 20% and a minimum gain of 10% if entered at the bottom. Other sectors mentioned earlier, such as LTC, BCH, and SOL, expect BCH to have a breakthrough trend in the short term. After last week's mention, SUI has also risen, nearing a 20% increase. Due to compliance issues, Ouyi has faced several problems recently, but overall I believe the safety is fine as long as your funds are clean. Meanwhile, due to compliance, many altcoins have been delisted, such as BSV, which still has good popularity. From another perspective, the crypto market has not only rises and falls but also delistings; never be a diamond hand in altcoins. AAVE has reached a new high without providing the expected low point. With DeFi driving and RWA enabling, it indirectly suggests that Ethereum's series will likely see market activity soon.
Other issues can be discussed in the comments.
The Fear and Greed Index is at 66 for the day.
Finally, stay away from leverage and stock up on spot assets!