The news about OKX planning to go public in the U.S. has been circulating recently. If successful, it will provide a valuable reference for the compliance journey of centralized exchanges (CEX), and the battle between crypto capital and traditional capital is about to begin. Based on the various layouts by Old Xu over the past two years, as well as the recent news, my uncle believes that Old Xu has basically secured this round.
However, for us, the most important thing is the future of OKB. My uncle believes we still need to maintain a cautious attitude. Logically, the listing of OKX is absolutely favorable for OKB, but the problem is that the positioning of platform coins in the eyes of the SEC is 'unregistered securities'; FTT is like this, and so is BNB. It has always been strange that under the excellent performance of the OKX platform and wallet, OKB has rarely had empowerment among platforms. After this news came out, everything was resolved.
OKB has destroyed more than 50% of its total supply in the past three months, and the current circulation is less than one-third of its peak, clearly showing atypical deflation. My uncle believes that even if Old Xu ultimately needs to avoid the risks of unregistered securities, he will certainly handle OKB's market positioning issue properly, as it is the symbolic face of the platform. If you have it, hold it; if not, don't worry too much about it.
The private domain class that started yesterday has officially begun. It took two months from preparation to official announcement, and just one day from the announcement to the official start. It is expected to begin every evening at 7:30 PM on Tencent Meetings in the short term. Our content mainly focuses on purely public technical explanations, with one indicator each day, facing each unknown market condition with the most composed attitude. Tencent Meetings has a limit of 100 participants, with no expansion or recording, so everyone can participate as needed.
In the previous text, my uncle told everyone to overcome panic and prepare to catch the falling knife. This knife indeed came down, and the rebound was also very rapid. But I want to express that from the current macro logic, the current downtrend has not yet ended, and at least the testing of lower points has not reached the low points we believe possible from the data side. From a technical perspective, the daily chart of Bitcoin is extremely poor; unless it can rapidly break up to 110000 in the short term, going back down is just a matter of time.
What Bitcoin needs is not a rebound, but a reversal that can give everyone confidence. Ethereum's low point has reached the lower edge of the range, and many altcoins have hit new lows for the year. The short-term market still lacks clear signals. Therefore, in terms of operations, at this moment of choosing between long and short again, apart from the necessary left-side risk bottom fishing, it would be wise to observe for a few more days.
There's no need to mention the futures market; this trend is certainly a meat grinder. The K-line is based on hourly levels, with new highs and lows being inserted based on off-market news. The market's ups and downs resonate with the yield curve of the cooling mat; it’s quite abstract. If you can't understand the short-term trend, it's much better to maintain a rational and objective state than to enter blindly.
This morning, Trump said that the conflict between Israel and Iran has been resolved smoothly, and Federal Reserve's Goolsbee stated that interest rates should continue to be cut. Confused retail investors directly boosted the market's depressed sentiment. Sure enough, not long after, missiles continued to launch as expected, and Powell's face slap was deleted within 12 hours. Fortunately, neither of these events spiraled out of control, and the market stabilized.
Objectively, my uncle believes that the demand for continuing to cut interest rates in July is clearly increasing. In this situation, the data shows that Bitcoin spot ETF had a net inflow of 350 million USD yesterday, and Ethereum spot ETF had a net inflow of 100 million USD, which are favorable indications of Wall Street's increased confidence in the easing of geopolitical conflicts and the Federal Reserve's liquidity. This is also why my uncle believes that the market needs to pull back but won't crash, and Ethereum will carry the second half of the market.
Today's market is unpredictable, and an unreliable mouth is more effective than any indicator; let's see how it goes.
BTC: Bitcoin is just over 97000 points, missing the rebound by a little over a thousand points. Currently, it has rebounded above 105000 points. In terms of trends, several key positions should be monitored. The first high point is 106000. If it stabilizes on the daily chart, it means the current downtrend has ended, and the market will return to the consolidation state before the drop. If it does not break above 110000 with significant volume, there is still a considerable retracement trend. If it can't stabilize, testing the concentrated area around 97000 points will happen within a few days. I personally believe that for a better reversal, another drop is quite necessary. Of course, except for Powell's public statement about starting interest rate cuts in July, which is a macro favorable factor that can change all indicators’ sentiments.
ETH: Ethereum is linked to Bitcoin. The buy order at the bottom of 2100 points did not go through, but the rebound strength is quite strong. Let's observe a little longer; I still have 20% of my position to see if there’s an opportunity to push up.
For altcoin trends, MKR mentioned in the previous text that the opportunity below 1800 points was provided. The highest rebound was 20%, and the lowest entry also had 10%. If the bottom offers an opportunity, it can still rise. For the upcoming big market, if it retraces, focus on hype, Sui, and Doge. Sui deserves a little more attention, as there have been many positive developments recently, which will likely yield a high cost-performance ratio in the future.
For other questions, please communicate in the comments section.
The fear and greed index is 65 for the day.
Finally, stay away from leverage and stock up on spot assets!#加密市场反弹 $BTC
