After a period of silence, Sun finally made it back to the trending searches today. This time, the script is not small; Tron announced it will go public through a reverse merger with Nasdaq-listed SRM Entertainment. The agreement has been reached, and the new company will directly purchase and hold TRX, while Sun's loyal confidants will also be parachuted into the board. Even more explosive is that Sun's dad and little Trump, this 'cross-border combination', are very likely to directly sit in the management.
A month ago, when Uncle San had dinner with friends from Huobi, he heard that Sun was planning a big move. Sure enough, when he made a move this time, it was still the familiar taste—Sun never holds back on what money can solve. Compared to some smart individuals who cut leeks every day yet still feel self-satisfied, Sun's public relations route has become more and more smooth over the past two years, with the process of cleaning up his image almost 'cheating'. It must be said that Tron’s early push in the industry was solid; no matter how you view him, at least he's still continuously doing something. Just like that old saying goes: 'The world laughs at me for being too insane, I laugh at others for not seeing through.'
This time, the shell listing might just be the beginning. Crypto projects are using traditional financial platforms like Nasdaq to achieve capital channel connections, which is likely to become the new norm. The 'buy Bitcoin for listing' strategy that MicroStrategy has played out is already the most valuable template for attracting funds. Facing the largest and most liquid US stock market, projects that want to accomplish something without being restricted by small exchanges in Hong Kong will certainly prioritize this option.
Looking at the recent market, Bitcoin has been fluctuating around the same level these past few days, and the liquidity level of the entire market has returned to early 2020, almost like 'a stagnant pond'. But in contrast, Nasdaq is a completely different scene: stocks are doubling one after another, and AI and biotechnology have become the new darlings of capital. Last year, anyone who casually gambled on a small biotechnology stock on Nasdaq is now seeing hundredfold returns. In contrast, many retail investors who jumped into the cryptocurrency market when CZ was shouting about biotechnology last year barely kept their pants. Compared to this, many altcoins in the cryptocurrency market seem like 'legal scams' dressed in a technological guise.
Meanwhile, domestically, there are also movements towards stablecoin licenses. Following JD.com, Alibaba has also begun applying for relevant compliance qualifications in Hong Kong. It looks quite lively, but Uncle San's intuition is that this is more like a symbolic return of 'mending the barn after the sheep are lost'. Can that easily relinquished big cake really be snatched back? I'm afraid even those in charge have no confidence about it. As the saying goes: 'If fame and fortune are to last long, the Han River should also flow northwest.'
On a macro level, tomorrow night at 2 AM, the Federal Reserve will announce this month's interest rate decision. The market generally expects interest rates to remain unchanged. The real focus will be on the subsequent pace: the likelihood of a rate cut in July is currently less than 20%. This means there will probably only be two rate cut windows for the entire year, so don't have too high expectations. Looking at the speculative cycle, July-August might be a key window for capital rotation and risk appetite recovery this year, and Uncle San is prepared to pay close attention to that wave of opportunities.
Since Uncle San called for 'reducing positions at high levels' in mid-last month, the market has indeed been accommodating. Aside from Bitcoin still holding up, other mainstream cryptocurrencies have all dropped a level. To be honest, this kind of market is the most exhausting. Many people are still clinging to the illusion from two years ago that 'holding will lead to gains', but reality has changed—the current cryptocurrency market relies on position rotation, strategic mobility, and information reaction. It’s not about 'holding coins', but rather 'changing mindsets'. The time it takes for a project to go from heaven to hell could now just be the time it takes for a KOL on X to post something.
If you are holding those 'never rise, drop sharply' altcoins, Uncle San’s advice is: don’t hesitate, don’t get tangled up, clear all confusion and anxiety, and directly convert to Bitcoin. It may rise slowly, but it is a real asset that can withstand the test of time. Just look at how many people have traded short-term beliefs for long-term lessons in this round.
(Cai Gen Tan) There is a saying: 'Be unperturbed by praise or blame, idly watch the flowers bloom and fade in the courtyard; be indifferent to stay or leave, casually follow the clouds rolling in and out of the sky.' In the end, when the market comes, don’t be too greedy, and when the market doesn’t come, don’t fall into chaos. Choosing the right direction is more important than anything else.
BTC: Bitcoin's wide fluctuations continue. Yesterday, Bitcoin spot ETF had a net inflow of $408 million, and surprisingly, Bitcoin has finally exhibited some properties of a safe-haven asset. However, the divergence indicators at the weekly level and the potential double-top pattern are core factors that make it difficult to rationally see a mid-term reversal for Bitcoin. In the end, the best way to digest bad news is to have a proper drop, accumulating enough liquidity before picking an opportunity for a new high. The four-hour high point of the market is around 108,500 points, while the low point is around 104,000 points.
ETH: Ethereum moves in tandem with Bitcoin. I tend to start small-scale accumulation at Ethereum's low points and continue to add positions upon larger pullbacks. In terms of the short-term market movements, their significance to the cyclical trend is not that great. As long as funds continue to flow into Ethereum, the certainty of its market performance will greatly increase. Technically, Ethereum's daily low point is at 2360 points, with the high point in the range at 2730 points.
The altcoin market oscillates back and forth, with linked follow-ups. The stablecoin concept MKR has increased by 3.5 times this year. If this concept continues to ferment, Uncle San tends to take the lead to reverse, waiting for opportunities below 1800 points. Sun's concept surged significantly yesterday, and it is not recommended to hold Sun's altcoins. For long-term value, focus on HTX instead. The market capitalization of HYPE reached a new high yesterday, and in the short term, there’s unlikely to be anything that can compete with HYPE in the DEX concept. Since early May, it has doubled, and I don't know how many partners have joined in. Some old altcoins have recently surged and then dropped immediately. My personal view is that they are testing the pressure at the high point, and the real breakthrough time needs to wait for Bitcoin to drop this time. UNI was previously at $6, which caught everyone's attention, spiking to 8.6 and then falling back. The big expectations still hold potential for speculation, especially after the pumpfun account was banned and concentrated lawsuits were filed; attention will shift. On a side note, a KOL on X had recently 3% of its volume banned by Musk. The market indeed needs purification, but behind every industry crisis, new opportunities are coming. Which track will it be this time?
Other issues can be discussed in the comments.
The fear and greed index is at 68 today.
Finally, stay away from leverage and stock up on spot assets!
