The cyclical market continues to probe towards the target low point, and it seems there is no suspense at this point. The bottom of the on-chain chip concentration area has two major support points; the first is around 97,000 points, which has always been the first expectation that Uncle San believes can be reached during this round of high-level position reduction. The second position is at 83,000 points, which we can call the dividing line between bull and bear markets for Bitcoin.

The current large drop in the cycle is due to the heated conflict between Iran and Israel, especially after Trump's missile strikes this morning, which played a significant catalytic role. From the liquidation effects, the overall long positions in the crypto market have been massively liquidated, with over 500,000 liquidations in the past 24 hours, covering a huge range.

Will the market continue to worsen in the later stage? First, I will directly tell everyone the conclusion: Uncle San believes there is a high probability that it will ease in the coming week and then start a new chapter.

Looking at the crypto market internally, the main reason for the widespread decline of altcoins linked to Bitcoin is the short-term lack of liquidity, and this problem remains unsolved until the Federal Reserve injects liquidity again. The total trading volume is still at a four-year low. At this stage, when the on-chain loss rate has reached 98%, the continuous unlimited halving of the market has lost its meaning.

On a macro level, Trump had already sent messages through various channels before ordering missile launches this morning. Even we common people knew that Trump would target Iranian nuclear facilities this weekend, and they must have prepared early. This means that he is indirectly saying to the brothers, 'Give me a little face as the world leader, you all stay out of it; I am about to launch missiles.' It is clear that neither side wants to escalate the situation, but they should still take some actions due to their positions. Thus, a well-prepared attack has emerged.

Tonight, the Iranian parliament stated they support closing the Strait of Hormuz, but the final decision lies with the National Security Council. Regardless of whether it can be closed or not, tomorrow when the A-share market opens, those holding oil and gas sectors will be excited for another day. Historical experience indicates that the possibility of closure is still quite low; they are far from the point of life and death.

The Strait of Hormuz, a vital route in the Persian Gulf, accounts for over 20% of global stone and natural gas export data. Iran itself exports over 60% of its share here, and there are five major rogue states highly vigilant in that area. If it really gets shut down, global inflation will soar rapidly. Tomorrow, the U.S. Secretary of Defense will likely have to retract his statement from today about not seeking to overthrow the Iranian regime.

After most Iranian nuclear scientists have been precisely eliminated, Israel's strategic goals have basically been achieved. Coupled with Trump's direct involvement, things will ultimately return to the negotiation table for the latter half. This cannon fire not only wiped out more than half of our positions but also delayed the Federal Reserve's decision to prepare for interest rate cuts, truly a global disaster.

Now let's talk about operations. Many in the market are currently advocating that the bull market has ended. Uncle San believes they most likely do not understand the most basic logic of financial cycles. On a larger scale, Trump's long-sought emergency interest rate cuts have not materialized yet. Objectively, we believe they will eventually happen. The daily interest expense on U.S. debt exceeds 3.1 billion USD, whether it's through printing money or seeking crypto debt, these are practical and feasible actions that Trump will definitely take.

Let's talk about smaller ideas; the stablecoin bill has just begun to take effect, and the tokenization of funds under the RWA concept in the U.S. stock market is also just getting ready. In the context of the recent week's decline, the on-chain selling volume of large holders with more than 10 Bitcoins has not significantly increased compared to last week, and the weekly flow of the two core off-exchange ETFs is at a net inflow.

As far as I know, many project parties, including Binance, have already laid flat after running out of liquidity, with no motivation even to wield a knife. In the secondary trading market, many large holders are eagerly waiting for opportunities. Those truly panicking in the current market are definitely those who are powerless with a full hand of altcoins, and those deeply trapped in high leverage, unable to control their situation. By the way, after that sharp drop, isn't the subsequent rally supposed to require fuel? Liquidity can be provided from outside, but if it can't be supplied from outside, it can definitely be dumped from within!

So, if the big pie can be around 97,000 points in the short term, we should not hesitate to buy in batches after having been dormant for almost two months. Worrying too much during panic is necessary, but excessive hesitation is not worth it. Coming to the crypto world is originally a gamble on the future, especially since we have already taken the path with the highest certainty.

As for the market, this time I have preemptively alerted everyone to the risk of a pullback and reduction in positions. If it does come down, we will collectively buy at the low point and gather at the high point.

BTC: Bitcoin has come down. Currently, there are two short-term positions to focus on; the first is to see if it can retrace back to 102,000 points before tomorrow’s daily close. If it can, then the short-term bears may take a break. If not, the next phase reaching the first major chip concentration area near 97,000 points will be a certainty. We are powerless regarding the evolution of the macro situation, but after so many battle losses, some verbal disputes are inevitable. Personally, I lean toward a low point near 97,000 points. By then, the big pie will recover by 10%, Ethereum will fill up its remaining quantity, and we can wait for half a year. This cycle will just be like that.

ETH: Ethereum is linked to Bitcoin. The previous support at 2360 has been directly breached. The supports below are at 2100 and 1900 points. If Bitcoin dips down, I also lean towards Ethereum going below 2000. For those who have finished the first round of replenishment, just wait for the dip. Regarding Ethereum, everyone lost faith after the previous narratives, but after Trump's group and Wall Street chose to implement his decisions, I believe it still has a future worth betting on.

Many quality targets in the altcoin market have come down a lot. If there is余粮, you can pick up quite a few in the next few days. However, there are also some hyped ones that have not yet reached their bottom, so let's wait a bit longer.

Other issues can be discussed in the comments section.

The fear and greed index is at 42 for today.

Finally, stay away from leverage and stock up on spot assets!​​​#以色列伊朗冲突 #比特币跌破十万美元 $BTC