When the gun between Israel and Iran goes off, the market explodes - it's not a landmine, but the $1.2 billion contract leverage being directly wiped out. Uncle San calculated that this military expenditure is probably making the crypto circle brothers sponsor a round of ammunition on average.
But to be honest, this wave of decline cannot all be blamed on the war. The geopolitical conflict feels more like a last-minute push; what truly brought the market down was the adjustment demand that was already piling up, but this war merely advanced the rhythm a bit.
Remember the wave of excitement that started this Monday? Market sentiment was at its peak, and many thought it was about to take off. Uncle San had already given a clear reminder in that day's article: the daily high for Bitcoin is around $110,000, don't fantasize too much above that.
As a result, on Tuesday, the bulls just hit this position, and then immediately stalled, not even a decent bullish candlestick emerged. This wave of price action looks like a volume-less surge, coupled with the four-hour and daily top divergence, the whole state is filled with the words 'at the end of its strength.' At this time, there is no hot money off the market, no increase on-chain, emotions are stagnant, the chart is stiff, and not falling is already abnormal.
For the market to last long, it must pull back and build momentum; this principle has been explained a hundred times. But every time the emotional high comes, a bunch of people start FOMOing in the group, getting self-excited over the candlesticks. Uncle San is too lazy to empathize and just mutes for a few days.
A truly good market never starts when everyone is confidently shouting to go long, but quietly kicks off when everyone thinks it’s about to collapse. Many people have been asking in the past few days if the war has destroyed the market. I instead feel that the war has allowed those who can't see the situation clearly to see reality earlier: a pullback is necessary; it just happened to borrow an excuse from the cannon fire.
What’s truly regrettable is that Ethereum originally had hopes to strengthen after this wave of Bitcoin's pullback, but it was directly blown away by collateral damage. You have to know that from capital flow to fundamentals, Ethereum's recent state has been good. Stablecoins continue to be speculated, and many institutions have heavy assets pressed on the ETH side. Under normal circumstances, when Bitcoin takes a break, it would be a natural evolution for ETH to take over going up.
But now that the war has erupted, the rhythm of ETH has been completely disrupted. Moreover, from the current situation, neither Israel nor Iran seems to have any intention of making peace. If the risk of war continues or even escalates, the selling pressure on risk assets will be relentless. However, Uncle San is not blindly bearish; the news I’ve heard from my channels indicates that both China and the U.S. currently have a clear attitude - the scope of firepower cannot expand further. If they feel they can't control it anymore, these two big brothers will step in to cut it off. So whether it can come to an end still depends on the tacit cooperation of these two giants.
As for the data aspect of the market, it is actually much more rational than everyone expected. Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net inflow of $86.3 million yesterday, and Ethereum's ETF was even stronger with a net inflow of $112 million, with large off-market institutions’ funds continuously shifting from BTC to ETH.
The U.S. core PPI data for May released last night was also below expectations, which eased short-term inflation pressures slightly, leading to a small rebound. However, the one-year inflation expectations for June that came out tonight plummeted. Although that’s good news, consumer confidence rose beyond expectations, indicating that while people see the data improving, they still harbor doubts about whether the future can truly stabilize. In other words, emotions are still unstable; even if you provide a bit of good news, it can only lead to a technical rebound. To turn the situation around, more time is needed.
So the question now goes back to the old question - can we still buy the dip? Uncle San can only say that if you want a very quality position, then continue to wait.
Today, an old fan privately messaged me, saying he holds all altcoins that have dropped by 90% and has held them for three years. He asked if he could rely on this round of bull market to recoup losses during the altcoin season. I directly advised him to liquidate. It’s not that I’m cold-blooded, but I’ve seen this story too many times. In every bull market, the ones who truly make money are those who decisively take profits and cut losses, participating in the next round of market. Holding a bunch of coins that nobody cares about and fantasizing that they can return to their previous highs is as naive as a newbie on the first day in the crypto world.
When the trend is wrong, no matter how long you hold, it’s all for nothing. Those brief surges that excite you will eventually become memories you can never go back to. Understanding stop-loss is the first step to survival; freeing up positions gives you the opportunity to discuss the next offensive.
At this stage, it feels like the tail end of a bull market. No matter how much the market blossoms, it can only last for a while. It’s very possible that by the time you react, the market has already completed its run. And those coins you are holding that are stuck may have long been considered 'used and thrown away' trash by the market makers. They would rather directly issue a new coin for speculation than bother bringing these old altcoins back to their starting point. If you still insist that 'one day it will rise again,' then you can only wait and watch as you get harvested once more.
Making money in this market, to put it bluntly, is like snatching meat from a dog’s mouth; if you get it, you are lucky, if not, that’s the norm. What really needs to be remembered is - no matter how fragrant the meat is, you must run fast, don't be greedy, don't trust, don't cling to the battle, and pull out in time. When the opportunity comes, step out bravely.
BTC: Bitcoin, after a brief decline influenced by news, has currently rebounded after testing the intraday support of 103,000 points. The trend indicates that 106,500 points are crucial in the short term. If it can step into this high-level consolidation, it will last longer. However, the daily trend still leans towards a downward trend, and a major adjustment has not ended. I believe reducing positions at high points of Bitcoin is still the correct operation at present, and of course, the possibility of a black swan event is basically excluded. From a long-term perspective, Bitcoin's volatility can be seen as oscillating between 93,000 and 110,000, and breaking either side will signify the beginning of a new phase in the market.
ETH: Ethereum moves in tandem with Bitcoin. I tend to be aggressive in starting to slightly add positions at Ethereum's lows, and will continue to add positions upon encountering significant pullbacks. The short-term trends on the market are not very important for the cyclical trend; as long as funds continue to flow into Ethereum, the certainty of the market to rise will greatly increase. On the technical side, the daily low for Ethereum is 2360 points, and the range high is 2730 points, with the first high point breaking through yesterday.
The altcoin market is fluctuating back and forth, currently in the late stage of adjustment, waiting for the bottom to come after volatility increases.
Discuss other issues in the comments section.
The fear and greed index is at 61 today.
In the end, stay away from leverage and stock up on spot!
