The highly anticipated U.S. May PCE data is about to be released, the shockwave of Trump's tariffs is about to hit the market, and divisions have already emerged within the Federal Reserve, yet the market only hears 'dovish signals'...

On Friday at 20:30, the U.S. will release the May PCE Consumer Price Index (PCE). Economists expect that the May PCE will only initially reflect the upward pressure on prices from tariffs, as consumers have not yet fully borne the trade impact caused by the reciprocal tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.

According to FactSet's consensus estimates, economists generally expect the PCE to rise by 0.1% month-on-month, remaining flat compared to April, and to increase by 2.3% year-on-year. Economists also expect the core PCE— the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, which excludes the more volatile food and energy prices— to rise 0.1% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year.

David Kelly, the Chief Global Strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, stated: 'Inflation will see a slight acceleration, but this is just the tip of the tariff iceberg.'

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