美国5月核心PCE物价指数

Tonight at 20:30, May PCE data will be released

108000 is a key resistance level, having repeatedly spiked and retreated, with a dense upper shadow.

This time, the sharp rise was driven by news of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, but in reality, it is the main force washing the plates and enticing the bulls.

Once it breaks below the 102000 starting point, it could lead to a waterfall collapse.

Considering this situation, I originally thought the U.S. economy was weak, with rising unemployment, making it likely that the PCE data would underperform.

If it is indeed lower than expected, the market will definitely bet wildly on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates. At that time, Bitcoin will lead the charge, along with Ethereum, SOL, BNB, and even altcoins may experience a wave of “chaos and frenzy” riding on the coattails.

If the data is higher than expected, it indicates significant inflationary pressure. The Federal Reserve may tighten monetary policy to curb inflation.

Stay tuned to Hashni, continuous updates tonight～

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Black Friday!!!

Tonight, will it be bullish or bearish? Ethereum spiked to 2377 this morning, and has been showing a fluctuating upward trend. Since this afternoon until now, it has been in a sideways market with little liquidity!

The recent fluctuations have mostly occurred in the evening or late at night. Today is Friday, and at 8:30 PM, the year-on-year Core PCE Price Index for May will be released. This is related to interest rate cuts and has a certain impact on the crypto market. Currently, Ethereum is at a price level of 2450, neither up nor down, but the current direction is bullish in the short term, with an upward target of 2490. It’s advisable to enter with a light position.
#币安Alpha上新 #美国5月核心PCE物价指数
$ETH

#美国5月核心PCE物价指数 Tonight, the U.S. stock market will welcome the inflation indicator most closely watched by the Federal Reserve - the May core PCE data. The previous value was 2.5%, and the market generally expects it to rise to 2.6%. This news is indeed leaning towards bearish, and may impose short-term pressure on the market:

Core PCE annual rate may rise to 2.6%

Tracking data shows that the May core PCE annual rate is expected to rise from April's 2.5%, consistent with what users stated.

Monthly month-on-month is expected at +0.1%

The month-on-month inflation is still rising moderately, expected at +0.1%, indicating that inflation is still maintaining a "moderate recovery" trend.

Market reaction: Bearish for the dollar, short-term volatility intensifies

Although the rise in core PCE creates a drag on the interest rate cut rhythm, the current market has priced in the expectation of "delayed rate cuts", so the dollar may also weaken in the short term.

Impact on the Federal Reserve: May delay the rate cut rhythm

Although policymakers like Waller and Bowman do not rule out a rate cut in July, Powell clearly stated that interest rate decisions will still depend on data. If inflation rises, the rate cut window may be delayed until September or even later.

Impact on the stock, bond, and commodity markets

The stock market may face short-term pressure, especially in interest rate-sensitive sectors; gold may continue to fluctuate and weaken, as the market awaits clearer signals for rate cuts.

Investor focus suggestions:

If the data exceeds expectations and the core PCE clearly rises above 2.6%, U.S. Treasury yields may regain upward pressure in the short term, the probability of a dollar rebound increases, and gold may continue to be under pressure.

If the data is in line with expectations or slightly lower, the basis for maintaining the overdue rate cut expectation remains, and assets like stocks and bonds may still have the momentum for the next wave of rebound.

Overall judgment:
A core PCE rise to 2.6% means that inflation is still "hot"; policy execution needs to be cautious, and the rate cut rhythm may be temporarily "paused", which is bearish for short-term asset prices. However, if further data confirms that the cooling path remains, asset valuations may also welcome a new layout window #加密市场回调 .

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Today, the key event will be the release of PCE inflation data. In light of recent geopolitical tensions and the ceasefire between Iran and Israel, the market has been less sensitive to macroeconomic data than before, but this remains an important event to watch, as any data that falls short of expectations could lead to some volatility. In recent days, optimism about a rate cut in September has surged, given the drop in oil prices and news of trade agreements. This has led to a weakening of the dollar.

After all, Powell has stated that a trade agreement could make it easier for the Federal Reserve to begin easing policy. However, Powell also mentioned that only if summer's inflation data exceeds expectations could there be a possibility of easing in September. Earlier this week, after Powell's speech, we are now facing the first inflation data release. Keep in mind that inflation data will also affect the dollar, which is a key catalyst for speculative assets. The PCE inflation is expected to be 2.3% year-on-year, up from 2.1% last month. The core PCE is expected to be 2.6% (2.5% in May).

Any data above this value will be quite bullish for the dollar, while any data below this value will be favorable for speculative assets. This is the first time since last November that PCE is expected to rise compared to the previous month. If a trade agreement is not reached, it could rise even more in the coming months, particularly since the 90-day tariff suspension implemented by Trump will end in July, and new tariffs will come into effect. Rising inflation will reduce the likelihood of the Federal Reserve taking a more aggressive easing cycle, which could be positive for the dollar.

#美国5月核心PCE物价指数

Tonight the PCE is coming, will the market take off or crash? Be clear and don’t mess around!

Brothers, the PCE data will be released at 8:30 PM tonight, this is a key inflation indicator that the Federal Reserve is closely monitoring, basically influencing the interest rate hike expectations for the dollar, and will directly impact the crypto market.

If the PCE data is better than expected, inflation pressure will ease, and the Federal Reserve will have the confidence to loosen up, the market will be bullish, both Ethereum and Bitcoin can take the opportunity to surge.

But if the data explodes, and inflation continues to soar, then the market will worry about interest rate hikes, and once liquidity tightens, the market will first experience a crash before anything else.

So tonight is crucial, don’t blindly place orders betting on the direction, wait to see how the PCE data moves, then make right-side confirmation trades.

Let me summarize the thoughts for everyone:

If the data is good, Ethereum stabilizing at 2466 will look towards 2500 and 2547.
As long as Bitcoin doesn’t break the smaller trend, there’s a chance for it to continue rebounding.

If the data is bad, if Ethereum breaks below 2420 with volume, be cautious and look towards 2380 or even lower.
If Bitcoin breaks down as well, just short it directly in the short term and be done with it.

Also, tonight there’s a high chance of a spike in the market, don’t blindly chase after one K-line, wait for 5-10 minutes for stabilization and confirmation before entering, otherwise, it will leave you bewildered.

Finally, remember, when the market is calm, it’s the time to position yourself, and when the market is at its peak, it’s the time to take profits.

Tonight's PCE is giving you an opportunity, don’t miss it for nothing!
#加密市场回调 #美国5月核心PCE物价指数

Tonight's PCE exam, don't make random bets! The market's movements depend on it.

Brothers, tonight at 8:30 PM, the crucial PCE data will be released. This is the inflation indicator that the Federal Reserve pays the most attention to, and it directly affects how interest rates will move, having an even greater impact on the cryptocurrency market.

If PCE is below expectations: inflation cools down, pressure on the Federal Reserve decreases, market liquidity loosens a bit, and there’s an opportunity for the market to surge, especially for Bitcoin and Ethereum.

If PCE is above expectations: inflation spikes, interest rate hike expectations rise, and the market gets scared, leading to a sell-off first, which is normal for both long and short positions.

So tonight, don’t act recklessly, don’t rush to bet on a direction. Wait to see the data, observe the initial market movements, and then follow up with trades confirmed on the right side.

Big market fluctuations are ahead, watch the show first, then jump in, don’t be impulsive.

#美国5月核心PCE物价指数 #加密市场回调

It's Black Friday again, and the market is moving slowly today. From the current situation, it's a tug of war between bulls and bears.

However, the market's focus has shifted to the PCE data set to be released at 8:30 PM. This will indicate the short-term direction for the market, and considering the recent data releases and Powell's speeches, a rate cut in September is basically a done deal.

$BSW $LEVER can continue to short.

It's better to enjoy together than to enjoy alone; you must reach out to be pulled ashore~

#加密市场回调 #美国5月核心PCE物价指数 #香港加密概念股

BTC
Macro:
1. The U.S. Core PCE Price Index for May was released at an annual rate of 2.7%, slightly higher than expected.
2. BTC options with a nominal value of $15 billion will expire today, with a maximum pain point of $102,000 and ETH's maximum pain point at $2,200.
3. Grayscale updates its Q3 Top 20 assets list: adding AVAX and MORPHO while removing LDO and OP.
Technical:
1. On the weekly level, this week's candlestick closed as a bullish candle, showing a slow oscillating upward trend, but there is still a double top expectation in the overall structure, and this expectation has not been broken.
2. On the daily level, yesterday's candlestick closed as a bearish candle at resistance, ending a three-day bullish trend since the bottom, with continuous decreasing volume. The current structure has reached near the upper resistance line of the flag-shaped consolidation. If this resistance is not broken, the market will retrace towards the lower line of the flag. If a breakout occurs, it can target the flag's highest point around 111,800.
3. In terms of KDJ, the price has entered the overbought zone again, and in the previous two instances when the price was in this overbought zone, it was at relatively high peaks. If the upper resistance line is not broken, a pullback should be noted.
4. On the 4-hour level: in terms of MACD, a death cross has just formed with bullish momentum turning bearish.
5. In terms of TD sequence, a bearish TD9 has formed at a high position.
6. In terms of Bollinger Bands, the intraday naked K-level support is at 106,480, resonating with the middle Bollinger Band support. The intraday oscillation range is 108,200-106,480
#美国5月核心PCE物价指数

#美国5月核心PCE物价指数
According to current market data and institutional model calculations, the probability of the U.S. PCE inflation rate rising to 2.5% in May 2025 is approximately 65%-70%. The core logic is as follows:
---
📈 Key Supporting Factors
1. Energy Price Rebound
- The average price of WTI crude oil in May increased by 8.2% month-on-month (geopolitical conflicts + OPEC production cuts), directly boosting the transportation fuel sub-sector;
- The retail price of gasoline in the U.S. surpassed $3.85/gallon (a six-month high), with the contribution rate of the energy sub-sector reaching 0.3 percentage points.
2. Persistence of Service Inflation
- Housing costs are lagging in transmission: OER (Owner's Equivalent Rent) month-on-month growth rate still maintains above 0.4%;
- Healthcare service prices are driven by wages (May hourly wage year-on-year +4.1%), expected to rise by 0.5% month-on-month.
3. Preemptive Effect of Tariff Expectations
- Trump announced the restoration of tariffs on China in July, leading companies to stockpile goods in advance, resulting in rising prices for imported goods (May import price index increased by +0.7% month-on-month);
- Cost transmission in consumer goods sub-sectors (such as electronics and clothing) has already been observed.
---
⚠️ Market Impact Forecast
- Federal Reserve Policy: If the data materializes, the probability of a rate cut in September may sharply drop from the current 78% to below 50%;
- U.S. Treasury Rates: The 10-year yield may rebound to the range of 4.5%-4.7% (term premium expansion).

Will there be significant fluctuations in the crypto market tonight? It all depends on the PCE data!
📊 Market expectations:
PCE inflation is expected to be 2.3%, core PCE is expected to be 2.8%—if it meets expectations, it won’t have much impact on cryptocurrency prices. Only if it exceeds expectations will it be bearish, and if it is lower than expected, it will be bullish.
🔍 The hidden clues behind the data:
Tariffs theoretically push up inflation, but recently both CPI and PCE have often been below expectations, even Powell has complained about the quality of government data, so this time it might meet or be below expectations.
⚠️ The real storm is on July 8th!
On that day, tariffs will be temporarily postponed, and Trump will announce the final tax rate. If the tax rate is very high, U.S. stocks may correct after realizing the benefits, and the crypto market will likely follow suit and drop. But if the tax rate is moderate, the market may continue to thrive.

Tonight’s PCE data is likely to be non-impactful. The real market situation will wait for the tariffs to be implemented on July 8th! Before that, the market may continue to oscillate.

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Will the cryptocurrency market fluctuate significantly tonight? The PCE inflation data is highly anticipated. The market expects PCE to rise to 2.3%, and core PCE to rise to 2.8%, but this is considered 'in line with expectations,' which has a limited impact on cryptocurrency prices; only exceeding expectations would be bearish, while falling short would be bullish.

Typically, tariffs drive up inflation, but CPI and PCE data often fall below expectations. Powell has also criticized the quality of government data, so this data may meet or fall below expectations. The key factors that will truly affect the market are the delay of tariff expiration on July 8 and Trump's announcement of the tariff rates. At that time, the U.S. stock market may correct after the bullish realization, and the cryptocurrency market is likely to follow suit, awaiting further developments. #美国5月核心PCE物价指数 $BTC $ETH

Next Focus: PCE Data and U.S. Stock Market Trends

Currently, the market is in a "news vacuum period". Although geopolitical conflicts and tariff issues are important, they have not yet had a decisive impact.

The PCE data to be released tonight is worth paying attention to. The major variables still lie in the economic data for July and the U.S. stock points.

For the crypto market, Bitcoin's short-term trend may continue to follow the U.S. stock market, but its own buying power is insufficient unless new catalysts emerge. Before the situation clarifies, low-volume fluctuations remain a high-probability event.

#美国5月核心PCE物价指数

The highly anticipated U.S. May PCE data is about to be released, the shockwave of Trump's tariffs is about to hit the market, and divisions have already emerged within the Federal Reserve, yet the market only hears 'dovish signals'...

On Friday at 20:30, the U.S. will release the May PCE Consumer Price Index (PCE). Economists expect that the May PCE will only initially reflect the upward pressure on prices from tariffs, as consumers have not yet fully borne the trade impact caused by the reciprocal tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.

According to FactSet's consensus estimates, economists generally expect the PCE to rise by 0.1% month-on-month, remaining flat compared to April, and to increase by 2.3% year-on-year. Economists also expect the core PCE— the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, which excludes the more volatile food and energy prices— to rise 0.1% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year.

David Kelly, the Chief Global Strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, stated: 'Inflation will see a slight acceleration, but this is just the tip of the tariff iceberg.'
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Will PCE inflation data surge? Not necessarily!

Current market expectations are that PCE will rise to 2.3% and core PCE to 2.8%, which seems bearish. But this is just the baseline expectation; if the data meets this level, it will have little impact on cryptocurrency prices; anything above this would be bearish, while below 2.3% and 2.8% would be bullish.

Tariffs usually push inflation higher, but past CPI and PCE data have often fallen short of expectations. Even Powell hinted during his speech that the availability of government data is poor. Therefore, this data is likely to meet expectations or even fall below them, with a possibility of data optimization.

The real variable will be on July 8, when the tariff deadline is postponed, and new tariffs are about to be imposed. Trump will also announce the specific tariff amounts. This move may lead to a pullback in the stock market after the initial bullishness fades, and the cryptocurrency market is likely to be affected as well. In this rapidly changing situation, it might be better to let the dust settle for a while and patiently wait for the market to provide the final answer. #加密市场回调 #香港加密概念股 #美国5月核心PCE物价指数 #BTC #ETH

Weekend market, no liquidity visible and moving slowly, today is Friday again, and Fridays are basically all Black Fridays.

16:00 options expiration, the market has already moved and there is no impact.

The focus is still on the PCE price index at 20:30 this evening.

Intra-day operation suggestion: you can place one long position around the 2400-2420 line.
Notice in the inner circle.

Pay attention to the counterfeit that has no flow of purple bauhinia: 03621649548.

#币安Alpha上新 #下一任美联储主席人选 #加密市场回调 #美国5月核心PCE物价指数

Will the cryptocurrency market explode tonight? PCE inflation data is about to soar!

Current market expectations are that the PCE will rise to 2.3%, and then the core PCE will rise to 2.8%. This looks very bearish. However, this is the baseline expectation, and achieving this number is considered 'in line with expectations,' which has little impact on cryptocurrency prices. Only exceeding this number is considered above expectations and bearish, while below 2.3% and 2.8% is bullish.

Everyone knows that tariffs will push up inflation, but have you noticed that every time the CPI and PCE come in below expectations? Is there data optimization happening here? Only heaven and earth know. Powell even mentioned during his speech that the availability of government data is very poor, which everyone understands what that means 🤣

So given this situation, I believe this data might be in line with expectations or below expectations, just hard optimization. I think the real variable is that the tariff suspension will end on July 8th, and tariffs will start to be collected. At the same time, Trump will give the market an answer on how much tariff will be collected. At that time, the U.S. stock market may have a bullish reaction followed by a correction, and the cryptocurrency market will likely follow suit. Let the bullet fly for a while!
$BTC $ETH #加密市场回调 #香港加密概念股 #美国5月核心PCE物价指数 #上市公司山寨币财库 #币安Alpha上新

💪Tonight, the U.S. May PCE data is coming, warning of volatility in the crypto market!

The U.S. May PCE data will be revealed tonight, with a focus on core PCE year-on-year and personal spending indicators.

PCE is the inflation indicator anchored by the Federal Reserve. If the data exceeds expectations, it may delay interest rate cuts, which would be negative for the crypto market; if it meets or is below expectations, it may strengthen rate cut expectations and inject liquidity into the crypto market.

Tonight, I'll also look for opportunities to take fans to the PCE special session. The last non-farm payroll and CPI data were all successfully captured, so if there's a good opportunity, let's see if you can seize it!
#加密市场回调 #美国5月核心PCE物价指数 $BTC $ETH

💥Once again predicting, will today be Black Friday???

Tonight at 20:30 the US will release the 【PCE Price Index data】, personal prediction is likely to be positive.

Data is coming tonight, market volatility is expected to be large, Ah Qi will find a suitable position to bring fans in. For those confused about tonight's market direction, feel free to contact Ah Qi.

$BTC $ETH
#美国5月核心PCE物价指数 #加密市场回调 #