Source: Talking Beyond Words
If we take January 2023 as the starting point for this bull market, then as of now, this bull market has lasted for about 890 days. And if we take October 2023 as the starting point for this bull market (using Bitcoin's price breach of 2022's high as the standard), this bull market has also lasted for about 595 days. As shown in the figure below.
Additionally, from an overall trend perspective, the current pattern of Bitcoin is somewhat similar to that of 2021. If you enjoy guessing, then the following two patterns may continue:
One is similar to the patterns around September 2021, where Bitcoin may enter a new pullback, such as a pullback to around $95,000, and then make another surge, which could push it above $150,000. After that, some altcoins may complete a brief frenzy, and the market will enter a new bear market cycle.
One approach is similar to the pattern around November 2021, where Bitcoin breaks through its historical high again, followed by a brief frenzy from some altcoins, after which the market enters a new bear market cycle.
However, I found that there are still some people online who believe Bitcoin will reach $200,000 before the end of this year. We think this is a very optimistic prediction. In other words, if Bitcoin really reaches $200,000 before the end of this year (for example, around the end of September, it reaches $211,000), then in the subsequent bear market cycle, Bitcoin's bottom could be around $50,000 to $60,000 (for example, around the fourth quarter of 2026), and in the next bull market, Bitcoin's price could potentially reach $350,000 to $400,000 (for example, around the fourth quarter of 2028 or the second quarter of 2029).
Of course, the above is just a random guess based on limited evidence; it's very difficult to accurately predict the market because no one knows if any new black swan events will occur next. However, regardless of how Bitcoin performs next, or whether it will reach the $200,000 predicted by some in this round, if you still believe history can rhyme, then this bull market cycle may not leave you with much time, possibly only a few months left in terms of time dimension.
What we really want to express here is that each cycle's bull market does not continuously exhibit parabolic growth; it always includes relatively healthy declines (pullbacks). If you have not made money in the past 600 days of the bull market cycle, or if you originally made money but lost it again, then you should seriously think and optimize your trading strategy moving forward.
Simply put, the market cannot sustain a bull market; the bull market also cannot let most people really make money. This is a harsh reality we must accept. Do not try to predict the so-called precise top during a bull market; the most important thing during a bull market is to grasp the right moment to take profits in batches rather than always aiming for a perfect exit at the top.
Moreover, if you firmly believe in the long-term narrative of a particular asset (like Bitcoin), then just extend your investment horizon a little, and avoid unnecessary actions. The probability of losing money seems to be relatively low. However, as someone who has been through this, I can say that it's easier said than done since I've seen too many people enter this field hoping to make it their ATM, wishing to quickly achieve big gains from small investments.
If we focus on the long-term investment perspective, we can still gradually optimize and improve our trading strategies through certain methodologies, such as:
1. Master the necessary basic knowledge
I remember that many comments previously asked such questions: What do you think about the XXX coin I bought? Can I hold XXX coin for the long term? How high can XXX coin rise? And so on.
Then I sometimes ask the other party, can you list 3 simple reasons for buying this XXX coin? The result is that the vast majority of people cannot articulate why they bought this coin; they mostly bought it after hearing recommendations from some teacher, saw others say it has potential, or felt the project’s promotional copy was impressive, and thus bought it...
Most of the outcomes for these people are predictable; either they end up losing their principal, or they are simply scammed, leading to a total loss of their positions. Very few manage to truly make money based on recommendations from so-called teachers or their own luck.
Some people have heard that trading carries high risks, so they plan to engage in airdrops or participate in on-chain financial management. As a result, some who want to get airdrops keep searching various airdrop tutorials on Twitter or Google every day, only to end up confused after interacting with N new projects and using up N GAS without obtaining any actual results, ultimately just accumulating a bunch of useless NFT images or clicking N bloggers' invitation links to boost others' rankings. Meanwhile, some who want to play with on-chain financial management add liquidity in various pools, only to find that the advertised high APY not only doesn't materialize, but they also become liquidity providers; they see others' high yields while those others see their principal, and some even get phished, leading to their wallet assets being completely drained.
In this field, if we are just investing, we don't need to learn any profound technology, but we should prioritize mastering the necessary basic knowledge. For example, if you enjoy financial management, then at least the basic knowledge you should master includes:
- The concepts of DEX and CEX, and the differences in their financial product models
- What is single-coin finance and dual-coin finance (impermanent loss)
- What is lending financial management (Lending), and some corresponding platforms and methods (Aave, etc.)
- What is liquidity mining, and some corresponding platforms and methods (Uniswap, etc.)
- What is staking, and some corresponding platforms and methods (Lido, etc.)
- There are also various yield aggregators, stablecoin financial management strategies, structured products, restaking, etc.
- Additionally, what on-chain tools for financial management are available, or what on-chain data can be used for auxiliary reference, not to mention the crucial issue of protocol security assessment, etc.
In summary, we need to first clarify and learn some basic concepts related to financial management, and then choose the products and methods that best suit us based on our preferences or risk tolerance, and continue to maintain focus and research.
2. Optimize the profit strategy of positions
Actually, regarding the topics of position management and trading strategies, we have already sorted out a lot in the previous series of articles before 'Talking Beyond Words'. In summary, the most core point is actually one sentence: Stay focused.
In past articles, we have shared that some can achieve hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars in profit through continuous small trading (for example, using trading bots) across hundreds of MemeCoins, but this method is clearly not suitable for most retail investors.
For ordinary retail investors like us, focusing often outweighs quantity. Don't think you need to buy everything (there's not enough capital allocation), and don't chase whatever is trending. The optimal approach is to focus on 1-2 fields you are most optimistic about.
If we look at the segmented fields in Coingecko, there are currently more than 500 detailed fields in the cryptocurrency market, such as DeFi, RWA, AI, GameFi, DePIN, etc. Just the projects (tokens) listed on that platform have exceeded 17,000. An individual's time and energy are basically not enough to research all the projects in every field, so we should select 1-2 tracks we are most optimistic about to deeply study and track project opportunities, and the projects (tokens) we buy and hold should ideally be kept under 5.
On this basis, you can also plan your positions based on your own risk preferences, such as how much of the position is allocated to Bitcoin, how much is allocated to altcoins, and how much is allocated to MemeCoins...
Then, for each proportion of the position, how much is for long-term investment, how much is for medium/short-term investment, what should the profit target be set to, and should medium/short-term investments have clear profit-taking/loss-cutting settings...
In short, when we can maintain focus on specific matters, strictly adhere to our trading discipline within a system (suitable for our own trading strategies and indicators), and grasp the规律 or rhythm of cycles, we will not easily be eliminated by the market.
3. Cultivate specific abilities and specialties
Everyone is an independent individual, and everyone has their own abilities or specialties. Once you have mastered the necessary basic knowledge and can effectively optimize your position's profit strategy, what you need to do next is to continuously upgrade yourself.
This may need to be considered in conjunction with your own preferences, for example:
If you enjoy writing, then you might as well start a self-media channel like 'Talking Beyond Words', so you can regularly output your thoughts. In contrast to input, output is a better learning method (i.e., output-based learning). Of course, if you are still quite shy and unwilling to publicly share your thoughts, you can try creating a personal knowledge base on some note-taking platforms or sharing within specific circles.
If you enjoy speaking, you might as well record some of your learning results or thought summaries on some video platforms, or interact with others through live broadcasts. In continuous 'face-to-face' exchanges, you can gain intellectual collisions.
If you like data, then you can try to collect various on-chain tools that you find useful and create a toolbox (like airdrop, arbitrage, financial management, copy trading, whale watching, etc.) to conduct more targeted in-depth research on the aspects of the market and projects you are interested in, seeking those Alpha opportunities that others may not see.
If you like technology, then you might consider learning some basic coding or programming knowledge, or if you like candlestick charts, you can find some professional materials or books for necessary research... etc.
In conclusion, in any field, if we want to avoid being eliminated by the market and want to continue to gain profits or results, we need to persistently upgrade ourselves and stay ahead of others. Although sometimes, an individual's luck may temporarily place them in a leading position, the ultimate competition is still about an individual's level of expertise. Instead of envying those at the edge of the water, it’s better to retreat and weave a net.
4. Cross-domain expansion
This is one aspect that many people may currently overlook; for example, some may really like the cryptocurrency field, but they also reject or look down upon the stock market, foreign exchange market, and other areas.
In the past, perhaps this way of thinking could work, but now (including in the future) it seems it won't, as the current cryptocurrency market is no longer a niche retail market; it has started to become a financial game involving more and more institutions (even some countries).
We not only need to pay attention to the changes in the cryptocurrency market itself but also need to appropriately monitor the stock market (especially the US stock market), macroeconomics, and even international political situations. In other words, we can focus on Bitcoin in specific trading executions, but just understanding Bitcoin is not enough (even if you have thoroughly read Bitcoin's white paper and studied its code). To better achieve trading goals, you may also need to pay attention to trends in gold, the US stock market, etc. If you are proficient in one thing but unable to achieve effective profit targets, it is also a form of wasting time.
Aside from related fields, depending on individual time and energy, we can even consider expanding or dabbling in external knowledge in other areas.
Of course, in addition to the points we mentioned above, there is actually one most important point, which is: Maintain good health. This field trades 24/7, but our bodies need rest and moderate exercise. Don't sacrifice your health in pursuit of so-called potential profits.