Article source: Hua Li Hua Wai
Today (May 22), the price of Bitcoin broke through $110,000 and set a new historical high, as shown in the figure below.
Looking back now, in the past six months or so, the price of Bitcoin has risen and fallen, and has once again worn out many people's positions. Although the price has now risen to a historical high of $110,000, people's emotions do not seem to be as excited as they were at the beginning.
Looking back on the past six months or so, my holdings have not changed at all. The only change is that the balance in my wallet (U-denominated) has been fluctuating. However, according to the original plan, because Bitcoin reached the second target position set before today, I personally chose to sell 10% of my Bitcoin position again before publishing this article. The last time I reduced my position was on December 5 last year (2024), when the price of Bitcoin first broke through $100,000. I remember that I also specially published an article to commemorate it, as shown in the figure below.
I haven't done much trading in the past six months. I've been spending most of my free time and energy writing for my own media. Since the beginning of the year, I've taken about 300,000 words of notes. After整理编辑， about 180,000 words of which have been output in the form of articles (with images) through the 'Hua Li Hua Wai' WeChat official account, averaging about 1,200 words shared per day.
However, compared with the output sharing of 2000+ words per day on average last year (2024), the amount of content has almost been reduced by half. Maybe my sharing will be further reduced in the future. In fact, the fact that I can still continue to share every week now is more because it has formed a habit (habitual persistence). I don’t pay much attention to private domain traffic or public domain traffic now.
Of course, the results of this habit are both good and bad. The good aspect is that Hua Li Hua Wai has received a lot of recognition messages, and the bad aspect is that it has also received some targeted messages and comments. But fortunately, I am a more Buddhist person and I will not care about others’ various evaluations or judgments about what I have said (written), because some right and wrong may still need more time to verify.
But then again, even if it is right or wrong in the end? Different people may have different perspectives on problems, and therefore the results may be different. Although I also hope that every partner who has read Hua Li Hua Wai's articles can gain something in the encryption field, my personal views, ideas and strategies, whether right or wrong, can only be responsible for my own results (positions) in the end.
1. Why are so many people still not making money?
A few days ago, someone left me an interesting question in the background: Bitcoin has risen to $100,000 again, but why do I find that many people around me still haven't made money?
This question may need to be looked at in different situations:
On the one hand, it may be because everyone's subjective observations and feelings are different. For example, some friends around this partner, looking at everyone's discussions, found that many people said they did not make money.
On the other hand, you can directly observe from the side through some on-chain indicators. For example, there is a Percent Supply in Profit (profit supply ratio) in the (Bitcoin indicator template table) that we sorted out before. Using this indicator can measure the proportion of Bitcoin currently in circulation that is bought at a price lower than the current price (that is, the holders of these coins are in a profitable state on paper). As shown in the figure below.
And through the above picture, we can find that the value of this indicator has once again exceeded 90% (reaching 99%), which means that most Bitcoin holders are currently in a profitable state. But at the same time, this market optimism may also indicate that we are once again at a stage (note that it is stage, not long-term) top area. As for how long this stage will last, I don't know, maybe a few weeks, maybe 1-2 months.
Of course, this Percent Supply in Profit is only one of the indicator dimensions. If you need it, you can continue to use other indicators such as MVRV (market value to realized market value ratio), SOPR (realized profit ratio), Long-Term Holder / Short-Term Holder Supply... for more dimensional comprehensive assistance and evaluation.
In short, Bitcoin has risen to $100,000 again, but why do I find that many people around me still haven't made money? This kind of problem may need to be analyzed specifically, such as, it needs to be considered in combination with each person's entry time, position ratio, holding currency, and holding cost.
Although theoretically speaking, in a basically certain big trend, many people should be able to make money, but the game between the market and human nature has always existed. I remember we mentioned earlier that in this field, maybe 99% of people will eventually not make money or even lose money. Those who can earn millions of dollars a year are actually rare, maybe less than 0.1%.
For example, let's continue to take Bitcoin as an example. This round of cycles has risen from around $15,000 to the current $110,000, an increase of almost 7 times, but it seems that the proportion of people who can really get big profits on this is not large. And from our perspective, the core reason for this problem is: not establishing and adhering to their own trading rules (or trading system).
Moreover, after one round of bull market after another, you will find that there are not many people who can really endure long-term loneliness and always maintain focus and patience. This also reminds me of the classic line in (后会无期): "I have heard a lot of truths, but I still can't live this life well".
But I can also understand this very well, after all, I have experienced it all the way, and some truths are still in the thinking stage. The main reason why I have been insisting on writing and taking notes in the past few years is actually to hope that I can always maintain focus and calm thinking, instead of spending all my time on staring at the market and frequent trading.
Living in this society, we can find the most truths, such as various truths about life, the truth about relationships with people, the truth about investment and money-making, etc. But most of the truths are just reasonable-sounding to many people and won't really change their life trajectory because they heard/understood certain truths, because some truths need to be put into practice. You have heard all the truths and understood them all, but you have not practiced them yourself, so you are not really understand.
Just like many parents always educate their children to study hard, otherwise they will suffer in the future, but this truth can only be based on hearing (or understanding) for children. If you directly use the holiday time to send your children to remote rural areas to farm, or throw them to the construction site to experience life, then the children probably won't take long to truly understand.
From an investment perspective, this seems to confirm the saying: The experience of making money is often lost, and it is difficult to teach directly. People cannot learn by being taught by people, but people learn by being taught by events. Many people basically lose money in the first bull market cycle after entering the encryption field, the second bull market cycle is mainly used to recover the capital, and the third bull market cycle may make real money.
2. What mindset should you maintain when facing the upcoming market?
1) Continue to stay focused
This market will never lack opportunities to make money; the key is for us to find the most suitable way for ourselves from the various opportunities available.
It's impossible for one person to seize every market opportunity. If you're always chasing the market's hot topics, always trying to make money from every opportunity, and constantly changing your plans due to FOMO, the final result may be losses.
There is a saying that goes: If you chase two rabbits at the same time, you will eventually not catch even one.
Therefore, we need to always maintain self-discipline, only focus on the 1-3 sub-sectors that we are most interested in and most optimistic about, and focus on projects with fundamentals and narrative prospects for a long time. Only those who can endure 99% of the garbage time will have the opportunity to enjoy that 1% of the highlight moment.
2) Protect the profits you have already made
In previous articles, we have also mentioned several times that protecting existing profits is more important than earning more risky returns, especially during bull markets.
If you only invest in Bitcoin, it's okay, because Bitcoin is not afraid of being trapped. As long as you are not in a hurry to use the money and have enough patience, even if you experience a temporary loss from trading Bitcoin, you will likely be able to recover your capital and make money over time. For example, those friends who were trapped at the top of the mountain at $100,000 last year, if they persevered until today, haven't they successfully escaped!
But for altcoins, unless you have enough persistence and are willing to bet with funds that can accept losses for the long term, don't get bogged down in one or several altcoin projects.
From my personal feeling, although it is relatively difficult to play altcoins in this round of cycles, many people have actually gained some gains in altcoins. For example, I heard that some partners got a 5-10 times return on a certain altcoin last year, but because they continued to imagine that they could get 20 times or even 50 times the profit target and insisted on holding it to death without selling, not only did they return all the profits, but now they have even lost some of the principal.
Altcoins sometimes rise quickly, but they will fall even faster when they fall. When they rise, you seem to feel like you are going to be a master, but once they fall, they will fall so that you are not even a grandson. Here we still have the old saying: In the investment plan of altcoins, you must maintain liquidity, protect the principal, do not touch if you do not understand, you can consider buying in batches, you can also consider selling in batches, and if you can’t grasp the long-term direction, then just strictly do stop-profit and stop-loss in the short-term operations.
3) Make good use of time
The encryption market is traded 7x24 hours, but we cannot sleep 7x24 hours, so we need to rationally plan and make good use of our time, and at the same time try to maintain our health. Do not choose to stay up late for a long time and overdraw your physical strength in order to trade and stare at the market.
Especially in terms of trading, there are actually many tools that can be used to assist your operations. For example, you can use some robots to complete trading plans, use some alarm tools to remind yourself of key market fluctuations, or you can use the simplest pending order method to conduct trading operations, etc. When you slowly change from trading 10 times a day to trading 1 time a day, and then to trading 1 time a week... you may find that your mind and thoughts will become clearer and clearer.
As for learning, it mainly depends on personal preferences. There is a massive amount of information online, and there is also a lot of junk information. Different bloggers often have different opinions and content styles. You just need to choose the bloggers or content that you are interested in to follow or view.
In addition, you can also use some existing on-chain tools to more intuitively understand and discover some of the dimensional data you need, which will also help you optimize your time and energy. We have sorted out a lot of on-chain data indicators in our previous articles. I won’t repeat them here. Interested partners can search and review the historical articles of Hua Li Hua Wai.
Of course, making good use of time is for better trading and learning, but trading is not just about buying and selling, and learning is not just about reading. If you can also record your feelings and summaries in the form of notes (diaries or weekly reports), as long as you persist, I believe you will definitely have greater gains.
At the end of the article, let's briefly review some of the views in the past articles of Hua Li Hua Wai in the past two months (March 22-May 22):
March 24th article: As for when new trend changes or stage reversals will occur, I don't know. Here I can randomly guess again, if the market continues to usher in new black swan events, maybe we will see Bitcoin in the $70,000s again (a new opportunity for investors to add positions), and if the market continues to climb slowly according to the existing (recent weeks) rhythm, then maybe we can also see some new stage opportunities in the second quarter of this year (a new selling opportunity for speculators).
March 26th article: Precisely because the market is uncertain, it will create some new opportunities. Everyone knows that the sun will definitely rise from the east tomorrow, so there will be no opportunity to make money in this (no one will bet on which direction the sun will rise from tomorrow). But if I tell you (this is just an example and assumption) that there is a 75% probability that Bitcoin will see a price starting with 9 in the next few weeks, and a 25% probability of continuing to see a price starting with 7, then there is actually a certain opportunity here, and what would you do in this kind of uncertainty? Trading is not luck, but a discipline and system. Think about what your ultimate goal is, and then keep going. Never risk any trade that exceeds the loss you can afford.
March 28th article: As for whether Pendle can still be bought now, I cannot provide specific buying and selling suggestions (do not provide any specific buying and selling guidance at the transaction level). If you have the urge to participate in trading Pendle, then one of the simplest methods is to refer to the ideas in our article last year (November 12, 2024) to conduct some necessary research, and then decide whether to participate. In that article, we used AAVE as an example and listed several simple ideas and methods for quickly selecting projects.
March 31st article: The market is cruel, and the fluctuations are ruthless. Only those who prepare in advance in the market silence, and only those who can still maintain inner peace when most people collapse, can get the results they want in the new chaos. A person's investment return is often determined by his trading discipline and personal mindset.
April 1st article: Global M2 reached a stage peak of 109 trillion US dollars on March 24, 2025. Then, if there are no new and bigger black swan events, maybe BTC may rebound to a stage high point in June 2025. As ordinary investors, we don't seem to be able to change the overall situation. The only thing we can change is our position (protect our position and patiently wait for new opportunities to make money).
April 5th article: The bear market or bull market defined by others is not important to you. It doesn't make much sense to go around to verify such questions. The focus is on how you view the bull market or bear market. We believe that the current stage has not reached a real bear market, or it can also be described as a stage bear market (or a large-level callback). If we continue to extend the cycle, it is very likely that Bitcoin will continue to break new highs in the future, it just depends on whether you can wait until that time. Being patient is not easy, but I think this is what is most needed now.
April 7th article: If you don't know what to do, then the best operation under this kind of violent fluctuation is not to operate. And if you still have spare positions that can be used for long-term investment, and these funds will not affect your real life, then the subsequent decline is still an opportunity for you to add positions (reserve) Bitcoin in batches, that is to say, as ordinary investors, the core position is honestly used to continue to hoard more Bitcoin on dips is still a relatively safe and relatively simple operation strategy.
April 10th article: Although many people are saying that it is a full-blown bear market, no matter what others think, as far as Bitcoin is concerned, from a longer-term perspective, we still think it is bullish, and the current position of $76,000 also looks like a good support. Whether it is Bitcoin at $82,000 now, or Bitcoin that may continue to fall to the $70,000s or even $60,000s, you can still consider accumulating in batches in the current fluctuating range.
April 14th article: The market cycle is actually a cycle of reincarnation, sometimes the bubble will repeatedly get bigger and smaller, sometimes the bubble will directly burst and then blow bubbles again... Although there are different places in each cycle (such as different time lengths, different policy impacts, different narrative stories, etc.), as long as we understand the basic relationship between the market and liquidity, such as understanding the relationship between policies, inflation, and printing money, then we can always find some of the same places in the market, which is where we can amplify and use it.
April 18th article: We can choose to buy gold only in stages, or choose to buy Bitcoin only in stages, or both gold and Bitcoin can be bought at the same time for long-term reserves. This is determined by your own personal preferences, position allocation, and risk management. Short-term investment depends on technology (the ability to grasp indicators, the ability to filter information, the ability to analyze data, etc.), and long-term investment depends on mentality (investment logic, the ability to grasp cycle trends, values, etc.). If your eyes can only see the present, but you do not have good technology as a trading support, such as seeing a target rise or become popular, you will directly abandon the existing target to chase the highs or chase the hot spots. Under such a repetitive investment mentality, the final result may be nothing.
April 24th article: When Bitcoin reaches a certain high percentage (such as about 65%), it often means that a so-called new altcoin season may be coming, but in the current overall market environment, if you want to continue to seize possible altcoin opportunities, then it is best to give priority to paying attention to mainstream coins (such as SOL, ETH, or leading coins in other sectors), and at the same time be sure to control your position ratio, and do not let yourself fall into a new quagmire on altcoins (especially earth dogs).
May 1st article: If there are no new black swan events, we may really be able to see Bitcoin break through its historical high again in the second quarter of this year. Theoretically speaking, even if Bitcoin has the opportunity to continue to break new highs in the second quarter of this year (May and June), it may not rise too much. We believe that it is very likely that it will continue to maintain a new high range and enter a stage of shock. Unless there are relatively large new favorable drivers and stimuli in policy factors or macro data (mainly in the United States). Try to ignore short-term prices, extend the time cycle, and try to hoard more Bitcoin as much as possible without affecting your daily life. Even if you only hoard 1 Bitcoin, it may become one of your most important personal wealth in the future.
May 8th article: At this stage, the rise of Bitcoin is more driven by news (news) and is mainly based on institutional hedging and speculation. This may cause a so-called short squeeze, that is, the previous over-leveraged short positions may be liquidated by the market, thereby pushing Bitcoin back to $100,000 or even higher. But is this way of pushing up prices sustainable, or how long can it last? This may require us to ask a new question mark. The core and underlying logic of the market is still liquidity. In the absence of fundamental changes in liquidity itself, the rapid rise in prices is both an opportunity and a risk in the short term.
May 12th article: The price of Bitcoin seems to be back in place, and it seems that breaking through the historical high again is just a matter of time, and the price of Ethereum has also seen a short-term violent rise and become tough, and some altcoins seem to be restless. But in terms of macro factors, there are still some uncertainties, therefore, we believe that the current is still a Bitcoin bull market, and it seems that the market motivation for short-term speculation is greater. The more this is the time, the more you need to remain rational, do not be affected by the current optimistic price sentiment, do not blindly chase highs and go all-in, and control your position ratio, for example, how much position ratio is used for BTC allocation, how much ratio is used for ETH allocation, how much ratio is used for blue-chip altcoin allocation (such as BNB, SOL, PENDLE, LINK, AAVE, etc.), how much ratio needs to continue to maintain liquidity (USDC/USDT), how much ratio is expected to be used for speculation in coins with poor liquidity or low market value... These all need to be rationally planned according to individual risk preferences.
