Source: Huali Huawai.
1. How long will this phase of the market last?
I remember discussing the topic of the bull market a few days ago, where we mentioned that from a longer time dimension, such as starting in the third quarter of this year, we might experience new declines or consolidation.
From the current on-chain data, it seems that this trend is already showing some signs. For instance, by observing the Bitcoin Supply LTH and STH indicators, we can see that as Bitcoin's price has recently started to rise again, short-term holders (those who have held Bitcoin for less than 155 days) are no longer keen on buying (accumulating) Bitcoin but are instead choosing to continue selling their holdings, as shown in the figure below.
In contrast to STH Supply, LTH Supply is still showing a phase of growth. The recent rise in Bitcoin's price is primarily driven by whales (including institutions). However, as Bitcoin's price continues to rise, the demand from LTH usually begins to slow down, which may also lead to a return of STH sentiment. However, at this time, the potential selling pressure in the market may rise again, which is a typical signal that Bitcoin's price is approaching the peak of a phase cycle.
Combining this with the Bitcoin Realized Price indicator, the actual cost price for short-term holders is around $94,600, as shown in the figure below.
Meanwhile, the actual cost price for long-term holders (LTH) averages around $33,000, as shown in the figure below.
This means that around $94,600 is a relatively important support level in the short term. However, compared to long-term holders (LTH), the current price still seems to have considerable room for growth. It appears that there is still a significant divergence in behavior between short-term holders (STH) and long-term holders (LTH) at this stage of the current market.
In short, the market still possesses certain upward potential (long-term holders continue to accumulate), and we continue to remain bullish on the upcoming trend. However, if we speculate based on time, we may need to maintain a relatively cautious attitude in the third quarter of this year, while the fourth quarter may not rule out a significant phase of market corrections (we will provide a script below).
2. The market script for the second half of this year.
In earlier articles, we shared that our target expectation for Bitcoin in this bull market cycle is between $100,000 and $120,000, as shown in the figure below. From the current results, this target has been achieved, and it does not seem impossible to reach or break through $120,000 in the coming months (for example, in June).
However, we have also shared a viewpoint in previous articles that market opportunities often coexist with risks.
Continuing with the Supply LTH and STH indicators, if Bitcoin's price can reach new highs and break through $120,000 in June, then short-term holders may continue to FOMO, while long-term holders may seize the opportunity to start selling their Bitcoin.
At the same time, if we consider some macro factors further, the market in the second half of this year is bound to become extraordinary and may experience considerable volatility. Specifically regarding macro factors, we have previously listed and analyzed them in past articles.
For example, regarding the Federal Reserve's expectations of interest rate cuts, although many analysts previously believed that the Fed might cut rates in June, given the current situation, the probability of a rate cut in June is actually very low.
For example, regarding the U.S. debt issue, according to public data, as of May 2025, the total U.S. debt has reached $36.2 trillion, with publicly held debt at $28.9 trillion and intra-governmental holdings at $7.31 trillion. In the current high-interest-rate environment, continuing to solve the debt issue through refinancing will face higher costs, which may also impact the global market (including the crypto market).
For instance, issues regarding U.S. tariff policies, geopolitical conflicts, etc.
Therefore, if Bitcoin reaches an all-time high and enters consolidation in June, some altcoins' prices may continue to be hyped, but we do not believe that a comprehensive altcoin trend will start at this stage. The current bull market still primarily belongs to Bitcoin. If your risk appetite is not that high, or if you are only engaging in short-term altcoin wave trading, then the end of June may be a good opportunity for you to profit from altcoins and exit.
As we enter July, global macro factors may undergo further changes. For instance, the 90-day deadline previously set by Trump regarding tariff issues will expire (on April 9, Trump announced the suspension of reciprocal tariffs on multiple countries for 90 days). The Federal Reserve may also provide clearer directions regarding interest rates and other policies, among other factors.
Considering various new uncertainties and not ruling out the occurrence of unknown black swan events, we will maintain a cautious outlook on the overall market performance starting in the third quarter. Additionally, as Bitcoin has already risen significantly since April, the crypto market may face a new round of phase corrections or volatility starting from this period.
This situation may continue for 1-2 months. If Bitcoin can indeed break through $120,000 and reach $130,000 before that, then if a slight correction occurs during that period, it could be around 10-20%, meaning Bitcoin might drop back to around $104,000 for sideways consolidation.
As retail sentiment falls back into pessimism or wait-and-see mode, we may again see some favorable market news, and the sentiment in the market may quietly change. This period (July-August) is also the most likely window for new altcoin opportunities, especially in concepts like AI, RWA, Staking, Stablecoins (referring to projects related to stablecoins, as discussed in our historical articles on March 28, May 8, etc.), DeFi, Memes, and others.
As we move into August and September, combined with possible expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the U.S. is likely to introduce clearer regulatory policies for cryptocurrencies, and there may also be new developments regarding altcoin ETFs... This bull market might mark the highlight for altcoins, possibly starting officially in September. Bitcoin's dominance (BTC.D indicator) may begin to decline rapidly, and many altcoins could see several-fold increases, with some new coins potentially experiencing exponential growth in a short time. In other words, there is a certain probability that the market may enter what is referred to as the 'altcoin season.'
However, we still maintain the viewpoint from our previous articles that there are too many altcoins in this cycle, which will dilute liquidity severely. This does not support a comprehensive bull market trend for altcoins like in previous cycles. If you do not want to miss potential opportunities, now is the time to pay attention to projects with solid fundamentals, good tokenomics (not heavily unlocked), and that align with popular narratives.
Of course, if you do not have the time or energy to conduct project research but do not want to miss potential altcoin opportunities, the simplest approach is still to take positions that you can afford to risk and gradually buy into leading projects like ETH, SOL, etc. They might still have a chance for 1-2 times performance this year.
If the so-called altcoin season truly arrives, then as people once again indulge in the euphoria of the bull market, possible risks may also arise at any time. We believe that this round of so-called altcoin season will not last too long. When we enter October, as previously mentioned, the market may see a significant phase correction again. Bitcoin may drop to around $94,600, while altcoins could face a correction of at least 20-30%, and many people may find themselves trapped at the peak once again.
But history tends to repeat itself in one phase after another. As the possibility of the fourth quarter market starting fades, retail investors will again choose to give up their holdings, while whales may continue to accumulate after taking profits in phases and prepare for the next round of speculation.
The fourth quarter of this year theoretically represents the last bull tail opportunity in this cycle (2022-2025). As the market enters a consolidation phase again in October and November, retail sentiment may drop back to a low point. We might see new market positives emerge, and perhaps we will also see the beginning of some new narratives being hyped (most likely still focused on new fields such as AI and RWA, while not ruling out old fields such as GameFi).
If all goes well, by the end of this year or postponed to the first quarter of next year (2026), we may again see a small wave of favorable market conditions. However, we do not know how much Bitcoin will ultimately rise, nor do we know if it will reach the psychological expectation of $150,000 that many people have.
Theoretically, starting in 2026, we will face a new cycle again, especially for altcoins without long-term fundamentals, which will enter a new cycle. During the subsequent bear market, they may drop to the point where they are unrecognizable. Therefore, if you still want to retain some positions before the end of the year, the safest options would be to hold only BTC and USDC.
Unless the market undergoes some new changes, it may break the existing four-year cycle pattern, leading Bitcoin to guide the crypto market into a new super cycle (refer to the article from January 17).
However, it is important to remind that market trends are unpredictable. The 'script' above is merely a possible speculation about the market in the second half of the year, and the timing and price descriptions may be incorrect. This is not investment advice; do your own research (DYOR).
