话李话外

Cover design | Senka
Source: Talk about Li and Outside

This morning (April 10, Beijing time), the market showed a rebound again. I believe everyone knows what happened because the U.S. tariff policy has changed again. Trump announced: Over 75 countries have contacted the U.S. hoping to negotiate and have not taken retaliatory actions. He has authorized a suspension of this measure for 90 days, imposing only a 10% reciprocal tariff (with China being the exception, where the tariff rate will increase from 104% to 125%). As shown in the chart below.

Affected by Trump's policy news, the U.S. stock market began to rebound quickly, and at the same time, the cryptocurrency market also saw a corresponding rebound, as shown in the chart below.

Cover design | Senka
Source: Talk about Li and the outside world

Today (April 7), we welcomed Black Monday again, with almost all global markets falling, not just the crypto market. People’s panic seems to have further fermented, and a bearish sentiment pervades the market.
Many people say: The market is going to be completely ruined.
Trump said: I did it on purpose.
Powell said: We'll think about cutting interest rates.

Under such highly uncertain market conditions, large funds seeking safety will become the top priority. I just took a quick look at the yield of the U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds, which has dropped to 3.88. As shown in the figure below.

Cover Design | Senka
Source: Talking Li, Talking Outside
The focus of everyone's attention in recent days seems to have shifted to the issue of tariffs.
On April 3rd (Beijing time), U.S. President Trump announced new tariff policies against multiple countries globally, including setting a 10% minimum benchmark tariff for trading partners and imposing higher tariffs on certain trading partners, with total tariffs on China reaching as high as 54%.
On April 4th, China also began to retaliate against the U.S. tariff policies, announcing a 34% tariff on all imported goods originating from the U.S. (note the wording here: originating from the U.S.).

Cover Design | Senka
Source: Talking about Li, Talking about the Outside

According to a research report from The Kobeissi Letter, the long-term inflation expectations in the United States have surged to 4.1%, the highest level since 1993. The tariff policy since Trump's administration is a major contributor to this issue, as there has been a trade deficit of over $300 billion in just two months, severely impacting consumer confidence. Besides the long-term inflation expectations, the one-year inflation expectation has also skyrocketed from 2.6% to 5.0%, doubling in less than three months, which will inevitably have a relatively negative emotional impact on the investment market, as shown in the diagram below.

Cover Design | Senka
Source: Huali Huawai.
At this stage, the overall market sentiment is still not bad. Many seem to have lost motivation and patience for investing. Even a few days ago, some partners in the group left messages telling me that they have already exited (retired) and are no longer playing.

From the current trend or data, the market seems to be in a rather interesting (or strange) state. On one hand, the BTC balance on exchanges is declining, and the stock has dropped to 2.18 million coins, as shown in the image below.

On the other hand, the balance of over-the-counter (OTC) trades is also at a historic low, as shown in the image below.

Cover design | Senka
Source: Talking about Li and other things

One of the hot topics these days is probably Ghibli. The reason is that two days ago (March 25), ChatGPT announced a 4o mapping function. In the GPT-4o dialog box, you can directly use the image generation function, that is, you can upload a picture and enter a simple command (such as inputting to turn this picture into a Ghibli cartoon style), and then GPT can generate a new picture based on the original picture and the command. As shown in the figure below.
The Ghibli style refers to the unique visual style of animation works created by the famous Japanese animation studio Studio Ghibli. Well-known works from Studio Ghibli include "Spirited Away" and "My Neighbor Totoro".

Cover design | Senka
Source: Talking Li, Talking Outside.
Although Binance Alpha 2.0 was launched on the 18th of this month, I didn’t update my experience right away because I've had no interest in trading MemeCoins recently. However, a couple of days ago (March 24th), after updating the app, I casually bought a small amount of a coin in the Alpha area to try it out, and the operation was indeed very smooth, equivalent to directly purchasing DEX tokens within Binance (CEX).
Maybe because the operation was too smooth, the coin I bought lost almost 30% in less than a day. However, since it was a small test, I won't take that loss too seriously. What I mainly want to say is that, from a developmental perspective, Binance Alpha seems to completely blur the lines between CEX and DEX, while also allowing some on-chain tokens to directly obtain liquidity from Binance, enabling ordinary users (novices) to easily acquire some on-chain assets without worrying about slippage, GAS, bridging, and other issues. This is indeed a form of progress.

Cover design | Senka
Source: Talking about Li and other things

Yesterday (March 23), Trump tweeted on the social media Truth Social: I love TRUMP (token), very cool. As shown in the figure below.

However, judging from the price performance of the TRUMP token on that day, it did not seem to generate much trading volume, and the highest increase on that day was only about 7%, which shows that the overall market sentiment is still not optimistic enough. Even if the president calls for orders, people do not have that crazy purchasing power. As shown in the figure below.
In fact, there have been quite a few positive factors in the market in recent days, such as: the U.S. Treasury Department lifted sanctions on Tornado Cash, the SEC said that proof-of-work (POW) mining does not involve the issuance and sale of securities, the SEC terminated the lawsuit against Ripple (XRP), Trump spoke at the Blockworks Digital Asset Summit (in a pre-recorded statement) and reiterated that the United States will take measures to ensure that it becomes the "cryptocurrency capital of the world", White House officials said that the United States may use its gold reserves to buy more Bitcoin, institutions such as MicroStrategy continue to buy more Bitcoin, Trump showed the Bitcoin white paper hanging on the wall of the White House, and the IMF (International Monetary Fund) is adding Bitcoin to its own reserves... and so on.

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Source: Talking About Li and Huai
Ethereum has fallen from around $4,100 in December last year to about $1,700 in March this year, a drop of around 59% in just over three months. During this time, many who were originally optimistic about Ethereum gradually lost patience and became more and more disappointed and pessimistic...

However, after ETH rebounded to the $2,000 mark yesterday (March 19), it seems to have reignited some hope among certain individuals. Many who were stuck looked at the $2,000 Ethereum with desire and excitement, eagerly sharing the news with each other.

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Source: Talking about Li, Talking about Things

Yesterday (March 16), a friend sent me a message with a screenshot that roughly said Buffett's Berkshire plans to invest part of its $334.2 billion cash position into Bitcoin. As shown in the figure below.
Then this partner asked me if this news is true, and if it is, he plans to buy some Bitcoin now. My reply was: Do not participate in trading based on any uncertain news, and don’t directly ask me this question; if you do, it means I don’t recommend you buy.

Cover Design | Senka
Source: Talking about Li
In a recent article, we mainly rethought the development of the market. In terms of current market sentiment, many people seem to be increasingly hopeful about the expectation of interest rate cuts (by the Federal Reserve).
The last time the cryptocurrency market benefited significantly from interest rate cuts was at the beginning of 2020. Before the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the federal funds rate (the rate adjusted by the Federal Reserve) was not high, only 1.5% — 1.75%. However, to respond to the impact of the pandemic, the Federal Reserve made two emergency interest rate cuts within a month: the first cut by 50 basis points (0.5%), and the second cut by 100 basis points (1%).

Cover Design | Senka
Source: Huali Huawai
In the previous article (March 12), we briefly discussed some issues regarding the future direction of the crypto market. Different people may have different ideas or views; no one can truly predict the future of the market. However, one thing is certain: while market cycles do have certain regularities, the market is also constantly evolving.
In fact, looking back at some of our previous articles (e.g., those from 2022 and 2023), some viewpoints that we thought were reasonable or correct at the time may not seem entirely applicable today.

Cover design | Senka
Source: Huali Huawai
In yesterday's (March 11) article, when we discussed the topic of Trump, we mentioned a 'debt' issue. Some friends left comments in the background saying they couldn’t understand it, so here we will make a simple expansion on this topic from the previous article.
First, let's take a simple look at the scale of U.S. debt data:

Due to the high scale of the U.S. government's debt. According to media reports, as of December 2024, the U.S. government's debt scale has exceeded $36 trillion, with nearly $3 trillion in U.S. Treasuries maturing this year.

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Source: Hua Li Hua Wai

Yesterday (March 10, Eastern Time), after the market opened, U.S. stocks continued to suffer heavy losses, with the Nasdaq down 4% and the S&P down 2.7%... As shown in the figure below. Giants like Tesla, Nvidia, and Apple all saw varying degrees of declines, with Tesla facing the worst, dropping over 15%. Since reaching a historical high of $479.86 on December 17, 2024, Tesla's stock price has halved, and its market value has evaporated by over $800 billion. Moreover, the X platform was also attacked yesterday, experiencing crashes and outages; it seems that Elon Musk has not been having a good time lately.

Cover Design | Senka
Source: Talking about Li.

Yesterday (March 7, Eastern Time), the first cryptocurrency summit was held at the White House, marking a new milestone event for the crypto industry, as this was the first time the U.S. government specifically discussed the future of cryptocurrencies and their regulation, aiming to strengthen the U.S. leadership in the digital crypto economy, which also signifies the formal recognition of cryptocurrency as part of the U.S. financial system.
Including some information revealed at the meeting, we need to think and pay more attention to it, such as:

Cover Design | Senka
Source: Talking Li, Talking Outside
In the past couple of days, we have also witnessed some history once again.
On the morning of March 3 at 9:30 AM (Eastern Time), the S&P 500 index opened up about 30 points, and the TOTAL (total cryptocurrency market cap) also reached a peak during the trading session. However, by 2:30 PM, the S&P 500 index had evaporated about $1.5 trillion in market value, and the cryptocurrency market cap had evaporated about $300 billion.
The market once again felt Trump's 'power.' Of course, today's (March 5, Beijing time) market is not much better, as it continues to endure Trump's 'blows,' including:

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Source: Talking Li's Words
Many people did not wait for Altcoin Season, but it seems they have welcomed Trump Season.

Today (early morning of March 3, Beijing time), Trump posted on Truth Social (a social media platform similar to Twitter, created by Trump Media Technology Group) announcing that the U.S. will advance a cryptocurrency strategic reserve including BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL, ADA, etc., ensuring that the U.S. becomes the world's cryptocurrency capital. As shown in the picture below.

Affected by this news, the cryptocurrencies mentioned by Trump began to rise rapidly, with ADA's increase reaching around 80% in less than an hour. At the same time, the overall sentiment in the cryptocurrency market also began to warm up, with many altcoins following the trend. As shown in the picture below.

Cover design | Senka
Source: Huali Huawai

I remember in the article on New Year's Eve this year, we optimistically stated: we continue to be optimistic about the overall performance of the crypto market in the first quarter of this year. If no black swan events occur, we may welcome a good market in February and possibly see Bitcoin at $110,000.
But the reality is that we are facing Trump's tariff policy, a $1.5 billion hacking incident, and the Argentine president's LIBRA token incident... all of which have led to large-scale liquidations in the market. This further confirms the saying we often mention: the market is unpredictable, and we cannot control the market; the only thing we can control is our own positions.

Cover design | Senka
Source: Talking about Li and other things

After several days of sharp declines, today (February 28) we finally saw Bitcoin starting with 7 again. I wonder how the mood of our friends is now after experiencing the devastation of Black Friday again?
Let’s first briefly recall the recent Black Friday, maybe we’ll get used to it after experiencing it many times:
On Friday, January 17 (EST), the TRUMP token was officially launched and began to drain market liquidity.
On Friday, January 24, the global AI stocks plunged due to Deepseek, and the crypto market also fell sharply.

Cover design | Senka
Source: Talking about Li and other things

In the past two days, Bitcoin has dropped from around $96,000 to around $86,000, with an overall drop of nearly 11%. As of the time of writing this article, the daily RSI has also reached the oversold range of around 29, and it seems that everyone is still quite panicked. As shown in the figure below.

If we completely follow the historical experience, then the investment success rate in this bull market seems to be relatively low so far, because at this time in the last bull market, Bitcoin had already begun to break through its cycle high point. As shown in the figure below.