Yesterday someone asked Uncle San, is it a bull market now? I replied with one sentence: you go flip through today's pile of news, then look at the market, and feel it yourself.
The Bitcoin conference is in full swing, a bunch of big shots around the world shouting 'free currency' 'new era reserve asset', but the traders below don't even want to watch the K-line. It's not that no one is paying attention, it's just that the market is too stable, stable as if brewing something.
You say it's lively, indeed it's lively — BlackRock comes out calling for a portfolio allocation of 2% Bitcoin; El Salvador continues to buy, steadily accumulating, now holding 6190 coins; Grayscale's new 'AI Crypto Sector' adds another layer of imagination for everyone; Telegram packaged a 1.5 billion USD bond financing, creditors can exchange for stocks, top institutions like Citadel and Mubadala have invested. You say it's quiet, it indeed is quiet — the market neither rises nor falls, the main force is reducing volume, the market atmosphere is reminiscent of the seconds before a meal starts.
What Uncle San has been most concerned about these days is not what anyone said on stage, but that Bitcoin ETF has seen net inflows for the 9th consecutive day, with a single day net inflow of up to 385 million USD, this is the real 'not talking but the wallet is very honest'. You should know that ETF money isn't for pumping the market, it's for acquiring goods. Whether this wave of market can go far, it's really not reliant on which news attack stimulus, but these steadily flowing in funds from the outside are the underlying foundation.
Following down the ETF, the US regulators haven't been idle either. The newly appointed CFTC chairman nominated by Trump has been exposed to hold 3.4 million USD in crypto assets. Note that this is not a joke, it's written in black and white on the financial disclosure form. Not to mention, a sitting president arranging a coin holding big shot into the regulatory system, how do you appreciate this play?
Looking at the crypto circle itself. Grayscale, taking advantage of the AI boom, has directly launched an 'Artificial Intelligence Crypto Sector', treating AI-related tokens as a new asset cluster. This approach is not just market marketing, but truly integrating the speculative attributes of the crypto market with the AI race. The most interesting part is that the AI sector currently has a market value of 21 billion USD, and this move by Grayscale likely means they are preparing to use the US stock fund pool to sweep these coins. The story of AI + Crypto is far from over, it's just beginning.
Tell a little story, today an old brother who trades ETH options told me that this kind of market is the most tormenting, the market neither falls nor rises, and doesn't even give you a V-shaped movement, just makes you gradually lose patience. He used to do intraday spikes, but recently he only makes one judgment every day: the main force is defending. Where is it defending? In the gap range of CME, ETF fund inflows, and symbolic 'national support' like El Salvador. What do retail investors fear? Sudden events, fear of missing out. So what does the main force fear? The main force fears that retail investors won't exit. In other words, the current sideways market is not because no one is trading, but because it's not our turn yet.
Of course not everyone is this calm. This morning there was news that an ETH big shot's address was 'pinned' and exploded by a 'dog farmer', losing 10 million dollars, directly cutting losses and leaving the market, after which the market immediately corrected. The one who shorted right after made a net profit of 5 million in a day. If you ask me if this is a script, I dare not say. But the logic of the contract market has never changed: as long as there is panic, there will be space for harvesting; as long as the chips loosen, the market can turn back.
Looking back at the overall rhythm of today's market: the three major emotional points come from Telegram financing + ETF inflows + institutional allocation recommendations, and the funding situation continues to improve steadily; plus Grayscale expanding the AI sector, the new CFTC chairman holding coins background, and the global endorsement effect of the Bitcoin conference, the narrative side also supports the bulls' confidence. But don't forget, just because the market rises slowly doesn't mean the bull market is over, it's just that the logic of the bull market has switched from 'emotion' to 'structure'. Whether you can make money depends on whether you can understand this switch.
So don't be anxious just because you see sideways movement, the real market is not drawn out by big bullish lines, but the structural support built by information and funds together. Retail investors should avoid not missing the first minute of takeoff, but instead burning all the fuel on the ground.
BTC: Bitcoin briefly returned to the 110,000 USD position, then the market slightly corrected, currently the overall trend remains in a high consolidation. The bottom of the trend is currently at 105,000 points, and the reversal position on the upper side is in the range of 115,000 to 120,000 points. The daily line must stabilize above 120,000 points to form a daily reversal, continue to pay attention to the situation of high and low points.
ETH: Ethereum has the potential for further breakthroughs, the market attention sparked by the Ethereum version of 'MicroStrategy' is quite high, let's see the next move. In terms of trend, it hit the trend high of around 2720 points for the third time today, the previous two times were on the 23rd and 17th of this month, the next time it hits again can set the short-term trend, continue to hold and observe, Bitcoin currently looks bearish, Ethereum looks for a breakthrough, quite conflicted, this also reaffirms the correctness of previously reducing Bitcoin and not moving Ethereum, betting on the internal trend.
SUI has started to rebound, this time the theft is estimated to be the highest loss recovery rate in recent years, overall still quite optimistic about this new chain, also pay special attention to the AI sector, there are quite a few topics, will sort out an AI watchlist in the next two days. The altcoin holdings really don't have much to move, just wait for the right-side trend.
Other issues can be discussed in the comments.
The fear and greed index is at 71 today.
Finally, stay away from leverage, stock up on spot!
