Translation: Plain Language Blockchain
Recently, discussions with industry leaders have led to a consensus: the traditional 'four-year cycle' Crypto investment logic has completely failed. The era of fantasizing about 'becoming rich by holding coins' or 'tenfold or hundredfold gains in a bull market' is gone for good. Smart capital has turned to more complex strategies, as the current market runs four distinctly different gameplay cycles simultaneously:
1. Bitcoin Super Cycle: Retail Investors Exit, Ten-Year Slow Bull Becomes Trend
Core Change: BTC has shifted from a target of retail speculation to an asset for institutional allocation. The entry of Wall Street, listed companies, and ETFs has led to a massive flow of retail chips to institutions, changing the price discovery mechanism and volatility characteristics.
Trend Outlook: BTC may enter a slow bull market lasting over ten years, with an annualized return stabilizing at 20-30%, and intraday volatility decreasing, similar to tech stocks. Retail investors face dual pressures of time and opportunity cost, making it difficult to endure the long-term holding strategies of institutions.
Price Prediction: Retail perspectives find it difficult to determine the upper limit of BTC; one must pay attention to institutional capital logic.
2. MEME Attention Short Wave Cycle: From Grassroots Carnival to Professional Competition
Essence: MEME is a speculative tool for 'instant gratification', driven by emotions, capital, and attention. From cat and dog culture to politics and AI concepts, MEME has formed an 'emotional monetization' industrial chain.
Market Role: When funds are abundant, MEME serves as a playground for hot money; when funds are scarce, MEME becomes a refuge for speculation.
Challenge: The MEME market has shifted from a 'slum paradise' to a 'professional harvesting ground'. Studios and large players entering have exponentially increased the difficulty for retail investors to profit, and legendary stories are becoming rarer.
3. Technological Narrative Leap Long Cycle: Bottom Fishing in the Valley of Death, 10x Potential in 3 Years
Characteristics: Layer 2, ZK technology, AI infrastructure, etc., require a research and development cycle of 2-3 years or even longer, following the technology maturity curve rather than market sentiment cycles.
Investment Logic: Technical projects are often overvalued in the concept phase and undervalued in the 'Valley of Death' phase, with value release showing non-linear leaps. Patient investors can layout in the 'Valley of Death' to obtain excess returns.
Challenges: One must endure a long wait and market ridicule; technical judgment is crucial.
4. Innovative Small Hotspots Short Cycle: 1-3 Month Window Period, Brewing Big Narratives
Current Situation: Rapid Rotation of Small Narratives such as RWA, DePIN, AI Agent, AI Infra, with a window period of only 1-3 months, reflecting the scarcity of market attention and the efficiency of capital rent-seeking.
Cycle Model: Concept Validation → Capital Testing → Public Opinion Amplification → FOMO Entry → Valuation Overdraft → Capital Withdrawal. The best strategy is to enter during the 'Capital Testing' phase and exit at the 'FOMO Peak'.
Potential: There are technical connections between small narratives, such as the MCP protocol and A2A standards of AI Infra, which may reconstruct the underlying AI Agent. If small narratives link to form a value closed loop, it may give rise to a super narrative similar to DeFi Summer, with AI infrastructure most likely to break through first.
Summary: Adapt to multiple cycles in parallel and find the right strategic positioning.
The single 'four-year cycle' mindset can no longer adapt to the complexity of the Crypto market. Investors need to recognize the rhythms and logic of the four gameplay cycles and flexibly adjust their strategies:
Bitcoin: Pay attention to institutional capital logic and adapt to slow bull rhythms.
MEME: Seize short wave emotional opportunities and beware of professional competition.
Technological Narrative: Layout in the 'Valley of Death' and patiently wait for value explosion.
Small Hotspots: Quick in and out, grasping the 1-3 month window period, focusing on potential narratives like AI Infra.
Only by adapting to the new normal of 'multiple gameplay cycles running concurrently' can we find real profit opportunities in this bull market.
