On a macro level, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller stated that if tariffs are lowered, interest rate cuts may occur in the second half of 2025. A low interest rate environment is favorable for high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies, and expectations for rate cuts may push Bitcoin prices further upward, injecting new vitality into the market.
Trump spoke at a cryptocurrency dinner in Virginia, calling the U.S. the 'global crypto center' and criticizing Biden's regulatory stance on the crypto industry. Despite the lack of specific policies, his remarks injected confidence into the market, highlighting the political influence of cryptocurrencies.
CFTC Commissioner Summer Mersinger stated that cryptocurrency perpetual futures contracts are expected to be approved in the U.S. If this policy is implemented, it will attract more institutional funds, enhance market depth, and pave the way for the integration of crypto assets into the traditional financial system.
The SEC has delayed the approval of the 21Shares spot Ethereum ETF (including staking features). This move reflects a cautious attitude from regulators toward emerging products, and future decisions will have a profound impact on the development of Ethereum.
Yesterday, the net inflow into the spot Bitcoin ETF was $935 million, setting a four-month single-day record. BlackRock's IBIT contributed $877 million, accounting for 93.8%; Fidelity's FBTC and ARKB saw inflows of $48.66 million and $8.9 million, respectively. The strong inflow of institutional funds indicates that Bitcoin is becoming a mainstream investment choice.
The MVRV model shows that Bitcoin's price peak is close to the red line (around $118,000), with the bottom near the yellow line. Pullbacks in 2024 have stabilized around the yellow line, with the current red line being a potential target for this market cycle. The platform's Bitcoin inventory has slightly increased (about 4000 more than the lowest point), and selling pressure is limited; long-term holdings (over one year) of Bitcoin continue to decrease, indicating that upward momentum is still present.
On-chain data shows that on the Hyperliquid platform, four players hold a total of $1.188 billion worth of 40x leveraged Bitcoin long positions:
James Wynn: 7225 BTC ($807 million), opening price $108,994, liquidation price $100,711, floating profit $20.29 million.
Address 0xc653...c142: 1500 BTC ($167 million), opening price $108,893, liquidation price $95,616, floating profit $4.62 million.
Address 0x46e3...bab8: 1000 BTC ($111 million), opening price $110,576, liquidation price $104,347, floating profit $1.21 million.
Address 0x0c86...8995: 900 BTC ($100 million), opening price $110,130, liquidation price $96,054, floating profit $1.5 million.
These massive positions reflect extreme bullish sentiment in the market, but high leverage also implies potential risks.
U.S. spot ETF data shows that the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of 8528 BTC worth $935 million yesterday; the U.S. spot Ethereum ETF had a net inflow of 43,300 ETH worth $110 million yesterday;
Overall, the short-term Bitcoin daily level has deviated from the 5-day moving average, and it is expected that in the coming week, a slight pullback or volatility may be needed to digest the current trend; at that time, it may again maintain an upward trajectory.