Cryptocurrency Daily Analysis (05.13)

Summary:

1. The positive effect of CPI is the transmission effect of tariffs.

2. The expectation of the first interest rate cut has been postponed to July.

3. Retail investors have outperformed institutions in the US stock market.

4. Medium and long-term views still remain bearish on the US stock market.

5. The rebound of the US dollar index is just a rebound.

6. After the weekly MACD golden cross, the following week tends to see a pullback, compounded by the buff of five consecutive weekly gains, this week looks to close in the red.

7. The similarities and differences of the current rally compared to May last year.

Operations:

1. Short-term:

Since last week's weekly MACD has achieved a golden cross, combined with the factor of five consecutive weekly gains, this week is bearish.

From the perspective of short-term operations, if during the period from Monday to Friday, the price of Bitcoin is above 104100, then gradually enter some short positions, and then close them at the 4H level MA/EMA60 (around 100,000). If it rebounds above 104100 again, then cover the short positions that were closed.

2. Medium-term:

It is still uncertain whether this week’s pullback is a 4H level pullback or a daily level pullback.

If aiming for a daily level pullback, it is best to set up positions at $BTC 108000 / $ETH 2800 / $SOL 188. Structurally, it is better to close in the red this week and in the green next week, then next week you can set up a medium-term short position, betting on a daily level drop. However, if the market directly starts a daily level pullback from below 106000, then it can only be missed.

It is important to note that for this drop, all profits should be taken at the daily MA250, and do not be too greedy.

3. Medium to long-term:

Buy spot at the daily MA250, and allocate 1% of the position to 100x coin-based long positions at EMA250, and allocate another 1% of the position to 100x coin-based long positions at MA350.

Do not set a take profit for long positions initially, and if the weekly closing entity falls below the weekly MA/EMA60, manually stop loss.

Spot allocation: Bitcoin 50%, SOL 30%, Altcoins 20%

Altcoin targets: JTO, ONDO, SUI, SEI, STX, MKR, AAVE, TAO, RENDER, XLM, LINK, RENDER, VIRTUAL.

4. Ultra long-term:

During the horizontal phase after the main wave in Q3, gradually build long-term short positions, with long-term short positions taking profits at 82500.