Daily analysis of the currency circle (06.19)

Summary:

1. Two logics of gold peaking in stages (central bank gold purchases slowed down, and risk aversion demand declined)

2. Long-term shorting opportunities and operation methods for gold.

3. Pay attention to aluminum

4. On the relationship between the proportion of net issuance of medium and long-term bonds to fiscal deficit and US stocks.

5. The high sideways movement of US stocks is not a strong performance.

6. There is no 10% discount on June 18. Has the view changed?

7. From the technical, cyclical and fundamental aspects, none of them supports the current main uptrend.

8. Even if there is no big correction in June, there will still be a correction in July. From the perspective of time, the main uptrend is completely in time.

9. It is still a high probability event that SOL will outperform the big cake in the second half of the year.

Operation:

1. Short-term:

The current market is grinding at the lower edge of the triangle convergence, and it is definitely not possible to short at the support level. However, since it has been grinding at the support level for too long, the possibility of falling out of the support is relatively high, so the risk of long orders is also relatively large.

It is better to hold the previous short orders as much as possible.

If $BTC rebounds to the 106500 line, you can add some more positions, and the target is still 94000;

If $ETH rebounds to the 2620 line, you can add some more positions, and the target is still 2150;

The pressure level of $SOL is too far away, so it will not be added, and the target is still 130.

2. On the mid-line:

When holding short orders, Bitcoin will at least go to the MA250 line of the daily line. As time goes by, this position will probably go up to around 93000, and Ethereum/SOL will be synchronized. Ethereum will probably go to around 2150, and SOL will probably go to around 130.

In fact, for pure spot players, Bitcoin can be bought a little every day below 94000, which doesn't matter. However, for currency-based contracts, the points should be slightly stricter.

3. In the medium and long term:

Buy spot at the daily MA250, and configure 1% of the position of 100 times the currency-based long orders, configure 1% of the position of 100 times the currency-based long orders at EMA250, and configure 1% of the position of 100 times the currency-based long orders at MA350.

Do not set a take-profit for long orders first. If the weekly closing entity falls below the weekly MA/EMA60, stop loss manually.

Spot configuration: 60% of Bitcoin, 20% of SOL, and 20% of Shanzhai

Shanzhai targets: JTO, ONDO, SUI, SEI, STX, MKR, AAVE, TAO, RENDER, XLM, LINK, RENDER, VIRTUAL, SWARMS