Daily Cryptocurrency Market Analysis (06.17)

Summary:

1. The relationship between US stocks and interest rates

2. The peak of US stocks/cryptocurrency market in October and subsequent trend predictions

3. The 13-month rule

4. The problems with the US dollar are still significant

5. The current position shows a triangular convergence, which indirectly confirms that the previous 112000-100300 was not a standard daily downtrend. Including the subsequent rebound to 110000, the crash to 102000, and yesterday's violent surge to 109000, all occur within a 4-hour structural pattern, using oscillation to form a peak.

6. There is a high probability that the triangular convergence can still go through another cycle and eventually make a false breakout at the upper edge of the triangular convergence (a common double V reversal this year). However, in practical operations, the focus remains on short positions.

Operations:

1. Short-term:

$BTC is currently running a 4H triangular convergence, which can likely go through one more iteration. First, it will approach the vicinity of 104000, where long positions can be taken at the lower edge of the triangular convergence, then rebound to 110000, where short positions can be taken at the upper edge of the triangular convergence, with short positions held for the medium term.

If it breaks above the upper edge of the triangular convergence, do not chase long positions here as there is a high probability of a false breakout followed by a drop, officially starting a major decline.

$ETH go long at 2500, take profit at 2730, then reverse to short, holding the short position for the medium term.

$SOL go long at 145, take profit at 160, then reverse to short, holding the short position for the medium term.

2. Medium-term:

Hold short positions, the major coin will at least reach the daily MA250 level, and over time, this position will likely rise to around 93000, with Ethereum/SOL moving in sync, Ethereum will likely reach around 2150, and SOL will likely reach around 130.

For pure spot traders, buying a little each day below 94000 is acceptable. However, for coin-margin contracts, the levels should be slightly stricter.

3. Medium to long-term:

Buy spot at the daily MA250 and allocate 1% of the position to a 100x coin-margin long, allocate another 1% of the position to a 100x coin-margin long at EMA250, and allocate another 1% of the position to a 100x coin-margin long at MA350.

Do not set a take profit for long positions initially; manually stop loss if the weekly close's body breaks below the weekly MA/EMA60.

Spot allocation: major coin 60%, SOL 20%, altcoins 20%

Altcoin targets: JTO, ONDO, SUI, SEI, STX, MKR, AAVE, TAO, RENDER, XLM, LINK, RENDER, VIRTUAL, SWARMS