Daily Market Analysis in the Crypto Sphere (06.11)

Summary:

1. What is the logic behind the violent surge in the CXO sector? Can it be sustained?

(I want to emphasize again that I have never actively taken down posts.)

2. The obvious and hidden unemployment rates in the U.S.

3. Opportunities and risks after the failure of the triple push wave pattern in the U.S. stock market.

4. How to understand this decline from 112000 to 100400? And the two corresponding development paths.

5. If we start from 100400 on a daily level, then this bull market would end in August, which seems inconsistent with the cycle.

6. A path that is more in line with the cycle.

In terms of operations:

1. Short-term:

$BTC adds short at 113000, exits half at 106800, and continues holding to around 94000. At 106800, a tentative long can be attempted, with a stop at 105500, taking profit at 111000 with half for breakeven, and holding the rest to 113000.

$ETH is currently very likely to be a central departure move; this departure is currently facing pressure at the 2820 level. This level is not only a proven support and resistance level over the past two years but also a dense area of heavy trading. There will definitely be a lot of selling pressure here, which is an undeniable fact. One can add short at the 2820 level, with a target still around 2150. For short-term longs, focus on the 2740 and 2620 positions, with take profit around the 2800 level.

$SOL , looking from a structural perspective, the daily move down starting from 187 is not complete; one can add short at 165, with a target still around 130. For short-term longs, focus on 155.5, with take profit around the 165 level.

2. Medium-term:

Holding short positions, Bitcoin will at least reach the daily MA250 level; over time, this level is likely to rise to around 92000. Ethereum/SOL will move in sync, with Ethereum likely reaching around 2150 and SOL around 130.

For pure spot players, buying a little Bitcoin below 94000 daily is fine. However, for margin contracts, the levels should be a bit stricter.

3. Medium to long-term:

Buy spot at the daily MA250 and allocate 1% of the position to a 100x margin long; at EMA250, allocate another 1% to a 100x margin long; and at MA350, allocate yet another 1% to a 100x margin long.

Do not set take profit for longs initially; if the weekly close falls below the weekly MA/EMA60, manually stop loss.

Spot allocation: Bitcoin 60%, SOL 20%, Altcoins 20%

Altcoin targets: JTO, ONDO, SUI, SEI, STX, MKR, AAVE, TAO, RENDER, XLM, LINK, RENDER, VIRTUAL, SWARMS