I. Market Overview: The bull market trumpet has sounded, with funds pouring in wildly.
Today is May 9, 2025, and the cryptocurrency market is experiencing a historic moment—Bitcoin breaks the $100,000 mark, reaching a peak of $104,300, with a 24-hour increase of over 7%; Ethereum has soared even higher, surging 20% in a single day, breaking through $2,220, marking the largest increase in 14 months. Market sentiment is fully ignited, with over $830 million in short liquidations across the network in 24 hours, and funds are pouring into mainstream coins and Meme coin tracks.
Behind this carnival, three core logic drivers:
Macroeconomic Policy Shift: Trump reaches a trade agreement with the UK, easing expectations of global trade friction, risk assets rise collectively; expectations for Fed rate cuts heat up, funds shift from gold (down 1.34% intraday) to crypto assets for hedging.
Institutional Buying Frenzy: The US spot Bitcoin ETF has seen a net inflow of $5.3 billion for two consecutive weeks, with giants like BlackRock and MicroStrategy continuously increasing their BTC holdings; Ethereum whale holdings surged 22% in three months, with continued tightening on the supply side.
Technical Breakthrough: BTC breaks the critical psychological level of $100,000, with ETH's bullish candlestick piercing the $2,200 resistance; technical indicators (MACD golden cross, RSI exiting oversold) confirm the upward trend.
II. Core Asset Analysis: Who is leading the rise? Who is undervalued?
1. Bitcoin (BTC): Is $100,000 just the starting point?
Short-Term Target: Standard Chartered Bank analysts state that the $120,000 target is 'too conservative'; if it stabilizes above $105,000, it may trigger an accelerated upward mode.
On-Chain Signals: Addresses holding more than 1 BTC surged by 12%, with retail and institutional investors increasing their holdings simultaneously.
Risk Warning: The CME futures gap ($91,000-$97,000) may trigger a technical pullback, caution is advised regarding leveraged liquidation risks.
2. Ethereum (ETH): The season of ecosystem explosion has arrived.
Catalyst: Pectra's upgrade implementation supports gasless transactions and account abstraction, significantly lowering user thresholds; the SEC may accelerate ETH ETF approvals, with funds positioning in advance.
Ecosystem Explosion: Staking protocols ETHFI, computing network IO, Meme coin PENGU, and other Ethereum-based tokens see single-day increases of over 20%.
Target Price: Analyst Cyclop predicts a push to $2,500 within a month, with a mid-term outlook of $4,000-$5,000.
3. Solana (SOL): Whale movements hide secrets.
Technical Aspect: $143.5 support level has been validated multiple times; if $154 resistance is broken, it may trigger a 15% increase towards $180.
Whale Alert: A certain address transferred 120,197 SOL (approximately $17.5 million) to Binance, increasing short-term selling pressure risk.
Long-Term Narrative: Solana ETF applications are poised to launch, CME futures are about to go live, with strong expectations for institutional entry.
4. Meme Coins: Trump's 'promotional power' VS Regulatory Sword.
Get-Rich Myth: The creators of the Trump-associated coin TRUMP have earned $320 million in fees, and holders can participate in a White House dinner; insider traders of the MELANIA coin have profited $100 million.
Regulatory Risk: The US Senate plans legislation to prohibit politicians from issuing Meme coins, and the SEC has already intervened in the investigation of Trump's trading behavior.
Investment Strategy: Prioritize fully circulating Meme coins with strong community consensus (like PEPE, BONK), avoid highly controlled projects.
III. Three Key Operational Recommendations for Ordinary Investors.
Position Management:
Core Allocation (70%): BTC, ETH, BNB (Binance ecosystem empowerment, essential trading fee discounts).
Satellite Allocation (20%): SOL, high liquidity Meme coins (like TRUMP, DOGE), betting on short-term explosions.
Risk Hedging (10%): Buy put options or allocate PAXG (gold token).
Profit-Taking Discipline:
Set dynamic profit-taking (e.g., move stop-loss up every 5% increase in BTC) to avoid 'paper wealth'.
Meme coins adopt a 'partial profit withdrawal' strategy, recovering principal before keeping profits for higher returns.
Event Ambush:
May 12: SEC cryptocurrency roundtable, pay attention to regulatory trends.
May 14: US CPI data; if below 2.5%, it will strengthen rate cut expectations, favorable for risk assets.
IV. Risk Warning: A sobering agent in the carnival.
Policy Shift: The EU requires exchanges to track cryptocurrency transfers, rising compliance costs may suppress liquidity for small and medium coins.
Leverage Risk: BTC contract funding rates drop to 0.03%, signaling market overheating; avoid high leverage.
Project Risks: Be wary of high FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation) tokens (such as new public chain projects); prioritize assets with reasonable market cap/circulation ratios.
Conclusion: The bull market has arrived, but surviving is more important than making more money.
Historical experience shows that the greatest risk in a bull market is not missing out, but rather the permanent loss of principal due to blindly chasing spikes. Ordinary investors must remember:
Do not go all in on a single asset, avoid becoming fuel for the 'get rich quick' dream.
Do not blindly trust 'insider information'; Trump's dinner invitation might be a sugar-coated trap for retail investors.
Do not become a slave to emotions; trading according to plan is the way to navigate bull and bear markets.
Remember: The bull market is the best opportunity for ordinary people to leap in wealth, but the prerequisite is—survive to the next cycle.
Statement: This article does not constitute investment advice; the market has risks, and decisions should be made cautiously.
