Five Major Trends and Survival Guide Every Ordinary Investor Must See

I. Bitcoin: Resonance of Macro Policies and Technical Aspects, $93,000 as the Lifeline for Bulls and Bears

Bitcoin's current price is oscillating around $93,800, with key resistance at $94,550-$96,071 and support at $93,138-$91,952. Three core driving forces:

  1. Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations: Market bets on a June rate cut have risen to 55.8%; if the U.S. PCE data released this week is lower than expected, it may accelerate capital inflow into the crypto market.

  2. Trump Effect: His supportive comments on relaxed cryptocurrency regulation, combined with risk-averse demand triggered by tariff policies, are driving BTC to be viewed as a 'digital gold' alternative by institutions.

  3. On-chain Signals: The number of whale addresses holding over 1,000 BTC has increased by nearly 100 in the past month, exchange inventory has dropped to a three-year low, and long-term holders are restarting accumulation.

Operational Strategy: Stabilize at $93,500 to build positions in batches; stop loss if it drops below $91,000; if it breaks above $95,500, short-term target points to $113,800.

II. Ethereum: Technical Upgrade Delay vs ETF Fund Outflow, $1,800 as a Turning Point

ETH's current price is $1,780, constrained by the resistance band of $1,835-$1,855; the four-hour K-line shows that if it drops below $1,700, it may trigger a wave of liquidation in staking positions. Key Variables:

  • Pectra Upgrade Delay: The upgrade originally scheduled for April 30 may be postponed to Q3 due to testnet vulnerabilities, weakening short-term upward momentum.

  • ETF Fund Flow: Spot ETFs continue to see net outflows, with institutional funds leaning towards Bitcoin, but the rise of RWA (Real World Asset tokenization) may become an opportunity for ETH to counterattack.

Ambush Opportunity: Focus on account abstraction (AA) track tokens like AIXBT, VIRTUAL; Vitalik says 'the AA process is only halfway done', with huge potential for ecological explosion.

III. BNB and Solana: A Dual Narrative of Exchange Wars and Public Chain Revolutions

  1. BNB Ecological Explosion:

    • Kraken launches BNB trading pairs, CZ says 'competition intensifies but benefits the ecology', staking service expansion pushes BNB market cap over $147 billion.

    • Key Event: The voting for the Lorentz hard fork ends on April 28; the technical upgrade may stimulate the coin price to break through the $600 resistance.

  2. Solana Leads the Charge:

    • Network revenue exceeds the sum of Bitcoin and Ethereum, with weekly DEX trading volume reaching $19.359 billion, and the Memecoin sector contributing over 60% of the traffic.

    • New Meme Coin Explosion: Italian Brainrot (+129%), Pwease (+280%) and other Solana chain projects are crazily attracting capital due to low minting thresholds and community splits.

Risk Warning: SOL needs to be wary of large whale sell-offs; recently, a certain address transferred 11,000 SOL to exchanges, worth $18.26 million.

IV. Meme Coin Craze: Speculative Feast under Trump’s Dinner and AI Narrative

  1. TRUMP Token:

    • The unlocking of $412 million tokens on April 18 triggered selling pressure, but news of Trump meeting with Zhao Changpeng spurred a 94% one-day surge in coin price.

    • On-chain Data: The top 20 addresses holding coins have shown concentrated movements, suspected of VC cashing out; retail investors need to be wary of the 'good news selling' trap.

  2. AI + Meme Fusion:

    • Tokens like FARTCOIN, AIXBT are leveraging speculation around the GPT-5 release, but over 80% of projects are anonymous teams with unaudited code, high-risk warning.

Survival Rule: Only invest funds you can afford to lose, set a hard stop loss of 5%-10%, and avoid letting FOMO emotions dominate trading.

V. Survival Guide for Ordinary Investors Q2 2024

  1. Position Allocation: BTC (40%) + ETH (20%) + BNB/SOL (20%) + Meme Coins (10%), reserving 10% cash for black swan events.

  2. Event Driven: Keep an eye on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on April 30, the maximum pain point for Bitcoin options on May 2 ($86,000), and the implementation of Trump's tariff policy.

  3. Mindset Training: Refuse to leverage all in, use dollar-cost averaging to smooth costs, remember Buffett's famous saying: 'If you are on the wrong road, running won't help.'

Conclusion: The crypto market in 2025 will be a battleground of macro policies, technological innovations, and human nature. Ordinary investors must remain rational, sensing crises amid frenzy, discovering opportunities amid despair, in order to navigate through bull and bear markets. Remember: Wealth belongs to those who can clearly see trends and hold their bottom line.

#BTC