#BTC突破100K 1. Institutional and Model Bull Market Top Predictions

Mainstream Institutional Consensus Range: The current market prediction for Bitcoin's price at the end of 2025 is concentrated in the range of $150,000 - $250,000. Institutions like Standard Chartered and Bernstein have raised their targets to $200,000 based on continued ETF fund inflows and institutional allocation demands. Galaxy Digital analyst Alex Thorn predicts that the fourth quarter may test $185,000.

Extreme Bullish Scenario: Some models break through traditional cycle frameworks, such as ARK Invest's 2030 target of $1.5 million (based on digital gold and emerging market safe-haven demand), while Robert Kiyosaki even proposed an aggressive prediction of $500,000 (based on fiat currency depreciation hedging logic).

Technical Model Guidance: The logarithmic growth curve (LGC) model indicates that Bitcoin may reach $258,000 by December 2025, and the weekly Fibonacci extension points to short-term resistance of $109,000 - $103,000, with a breakthrough expected to accelerate upward.

2. Core Momentum Driving the Bull Market Top

Institutional Capital Absorption Effect: The management scale of spot ETFs has exceeded $109 billion, forming a capital pipeline from 'traditional finance → cryptocurrency market', with an average daily net inflow of $170 million becoming a price support force.

Sovereign Nation Strategic Reserves: The U.S. 'Digital Gold Strategy' and the Bitcoin bondification of multiple countries (e.g., El Salvador) promote large whales to increase their holdings, with 10 whale addresses adding over 50,000 BTC within 24 hours of policy announcements.

Supply and Demand Imbalance Intensifies: The proportion of exchange inventory has dropped to 5.8% (the lowest since 2017), with new supply decreasing by 50% after the halving, but institutional demand is growing exponentially.