紫瞳

#欧盟隐私币禁令 I. Legislative Background and Motivations

Crackdown on Illegal Financial Activities
The core objective of the EU's Anti-Money Laundering Regulation (AMLR) is to sever the ties between privacy coins and criminal activities such as money laundering and terrorism financing. Statistics show that privacy coins were involved in money laundering cases in the UK amounting to as much as €43 billion, and their anonymity has become a breeding ground for dark web transactions and fund concealment.

Penetrative Regulatory Logic
Regulatory agencies believe that traditional financial regulatory methods have blind spots in the cryptocurrency sector, necessitating the use of technical means such as real-name verification (KYC) and transaction tracking to achieve a "surgical cut" in regulation. For example, requiring risk assessments for anonymous transfers exceeding €1,000.

II. Core Content of the Ban (Effective July 2027)

Comprehensive Ban on Privacy Coins
Clearly prohibits crypto asset service providers (CASPs) from supporting transactions of cryptocurrencies with strong anonymity characteristics, such as Monero (XMR) and Zcash (ZEC).

Restrictions on Anonymous Tools
Lists mixers as "high-risk tools" and requires exchanges to conduct customer due diligence on transactions involving self-custodied wallets. Although self-custodied wallets are not directly banned, their anonymity features will be strictly constrained.

Tiered Regulatory Mechanism
Establishes a new regulatory agency, AMLA, specifically to monitor large crypto platforms and introduces a "regulatory tax" (an additional 0.01% fee on each transfer) to cover compliance costs.

III. Market Impact and Industry Shock

Shrinkage of the Privacy Coin Market
The prices of privacy coins such as Monero may plummet due to liquidity exhaustion, with predictions suggesting a reduction in market capitalization of over 60%. Exchanges will need to divest from privacy coin operations, leading to a stagnation of related innovative projects.

Surge in Compliance Costs
Exchanges will need to deploy on-chain tracking systems and establish local entities to comply with regulations, with operational costs expected to rise by 20%-30%. For example, offshore exchanges like Binance will see their operational space compressed.

Restructuring of the Industry Landscape
Traditional financial institutions (like Goldman Sachs) may enter the market through compliant stablecoins, potentially dominating market share; meanwhile, compliant-friendly assets like BTC and ETH may become new safe-haven choices.

IV. The Game Between Technological Autonomy and Regulation

Countermeasures from the Monero Community
Establishes a community voting decision-making mechanism through a "decentralized governance" proposal and develops anti-censorship technologies (such as an upgraded version of ring signatures). However, this plan faces challenges in technical implementation.

#苹果放宽加密规则 1. Core Content of Relaxed Cryptocurrency Regulations in the United States

According to the latest policy dated May 3, 2025, Apple has adjusted the App Store review rules in the United States, allowing developers to integrate external payment methods and supporting users to purchase NFTs and other digital assets through third-party markets. This adjustment stems from a recent U.S. court ruling on Apple's monopoly case, requiring it to open payment channels. However, cryptocurrency-related applications still need to comply with strict restrictions, including prohibiting token mining, ICOs (Initial Coin Offerings), and task reward tokens. This move is seen as Apple's compromise under compliance pressure while attempting to balance the developer ecosystem with regulatory requirements.

2. Policy Tightening and Data Security Controversy in the United Kingdom

In contrast to the relaxation in the U.S., Apple has taken the opposite approach in the U.K. due to government pressure. In January 2025, the U.K. government, based on the Investigatory Powers Act 2016, demanded that Apple open global iCloud encrypted data access. Apple ultimately chose to stop providing the “Advanced Data Protection” (ADP) feature to new users in the U.K. and required existing users to gradually disable it. ADP was originally designed to protect iCloud backups, photos, and other data through end-to-end encryption. With its cancellation, Apple will be able to cooperate with U.K. law enforcement agencies to access user files. This decision has drawn criticism from privacy experts, who believe that weakening encryption protection will increase the risk of data breaches.

3. Driving Factors of Policy Adjustments

United States: Judicial Pressure and Market Competition
Court rulings on monopolistic behavior have forced Apple to open its payment ecosystem, while the growing demand in the cryptocurrency and NFT markets has also prompted it to adjust its rules to attract more blockchain application developers.

United Kingdom: National Security and Legal Enforcement
The U.K. government has pressured Apple to provide backdoor access under the pretext of combating crime through Technical Capability Notices (TCN). To avoid compromising the global data security architecture, Apple has chosen to make partial concessions.

$BTC 1. Current Price Trend and Key Ranges

Current Price and Fluctuation Range: The current price of BTC is fluctuating in the range of $96,500 to $97,000, currently reported at approximately $96,744, with a 24-hour increase of about 0.44%. It reached a high of $97,658 before slightly retreating.

Technical Support and Resistance:

Support Levels: $96,500 (recent key support), $96,000 (strong support conversion level), $95,500 (technical support).

Resistance Levels: $97,000 (psychological level), $97,500 (short-term resistance), $98,500 (key resistance), breaking through may challenge the historical high of $100,000.

2. Market Driving Factors

Favorable Policies: The advancement of the North Carolina Bitcoin Reserve Bill (S327) continues to support market confidence, allowing the state treasury to allocate up to 10% of public funds to Bitcoin.

Institutional Fund Dynamics:

The inflow of Bitcoin ETF funds has generally slowed, but BlackRock's ETF still maintains a net inflow of over $350 million in a single day.

CME Bitcoin futures open interest surged to $9.8 billion (a daily increase of 22%), indicating increased institutional participation.

On-chain Data Signals:

Short-term holder (STH) activity has increased, similar to the accumulation structure before the 2024 ETF launch, indicating a potential bullish cycle.

The number of wallets holding more than 0.1 BTC increased by 3.2%, and the accumulation behavior of small investors enhances market bottom support.

3. Technical Indicators and Trend Signals

Bull-Bear Game Indicators:

RSI is around 65, close to but not entering the overbought area, still has upward space in the short term.

MACD maintains weak upward momentum, but the difference between DIF and DEA is narrowing, caution is needed for a potential pullback risk.

Trading Volume and Market Sentiment: The 24-hour trading volume is approximately $32.4 billion (an increase of 18%), with short positions liquidated amounting to $45.6 million, indicating a warming bullish sentiment.

BSC Brush 513, wear 2.5 knives, not sure if normal or not

#数字资产法案 , U.S. 'FIT21 Act' and Subsequent Developments

Core Content

Regulatory Division of Responsibilities: Clearly defines that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is responsible for regulating digital commodities (such as decentralized cryptocurrencies), while the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regulates restricted digital assets (such as security tokens).

Classification Standards: Digital assets are divided into three categories:

Restricted Digital Assets (must meet decentralization standards, such as no single entity controlling more than 20% voting rights);

Licensed Payment Stablecoins (must be 100% backed by reserve assets);

Digital Commodities (assets based on decentralized blockchain networks, such as Bitcoin).

Compliance Pathway: Allows project parties to self-certify or submit materials to the SEC to prove compliance with decentralization requirements, thereby classifying them as digital commodities.

Latest Developments

The Republican Party in the U.S. House of Representatives plans to release a new draft on May 6, 2025, with an expected 90% content alignment with the FIT21 Act, aiming to further clarify the regulatory boundaries between the SEC and CFTC.

Senator Tim Scott revealed that the cryptocurrency market structure bill may pass in August 2025, which will complement the existing regulatory framework.

Impact

Promoting Compliance Development: Provides a clear regulatory pathway for crypto projects, reducing legal risks and facilitating institutional capital inflow (such as the expansion of spot ETFs).

Global Demonstration Effect: May become a reference standard for regulation in other countries, indirectly affecting compliance requirements for offshore exchanges.



2. UK 'Property (Digital Assets, etc.) Bill'

Core Content

Legal Status: For the first time, cryptocurrencies, NFTs, and other digital assets are included in the category of personal property rights, applicable to England and Wales.

Rights Protection: Clarifies the legal remedies available to digital asset owners against fraud and disputes, such as divorce property division or trading dispute cases.

Significance

Filling Legal Gaps: Addresses the judicial identification challenges previously posed by the 'intangible' nature of digital assets.

Enhancing Market Confidence: Attracts investment from crypto companies through legal certainty, consolidating the UK's competitiveness in the global digital economy.

$BTC 1. Current Price Trends and Key Levels

Price Fluctuation Range: Today's BTC fluctuates between $94,168 and $97,394, currently reported at around $96,901 (OKX data), a slight decrease of 0.03% from yesterday, but a cumulative increase of over 3% this week, reaching a new high for 2025.

Key Resistance and Support:

Resistance Level: $97,500-$98,000 (short-term breakout confirmation point), with the upper target pointing to the psychological level of $100,000.

Support Level: $96,000 (breakout point turning into support), $94,000-$95,000 (pullback buying range).

Intraday Performance: In the morning, it approached the high of $98,000 but slightly retraced in the afternoon, currently maintaining fluctuations above $96,000.

2. Technical Indicator Analysis

Daily Level:

MACD: After a golden cross, the red bars continue to expand, indicating strong bullish momentum.

RSI: Approaching the 70 overbought area but not showing divergence, indicating that there is still room for upward movement.

Bollinger Bands: Opening upwards, with price operating near the upper band, indicating a strong short-term trend.

4-Hour Level:

Candlestick Pattern: Breakout of the ascending triangle pattern; if it stabilizes above $97,500, it may accelerate upwards.

Trading Volume: Significant increase during the breakout, but current volume is slightly reduced, caution is needed for a short-term pullback.

Moving Average System: EMA7 and EMA30 diverging upwards, supporting price above $96,000.

3. Market Driving Factors

Federal Reserve Policy Expectations: The Federal Reserve maintains interest rates unchanged and signals a possibility of rate cuts, with the probability of a rate cut in June rising to 60%, driving funds towards risk assets.

#稳定币日常支付
The Core Advantages of Stablecoins in Everyday Payments

Low Cost and High Efficiency
Stablecoin payments bypass the intermediary processes of traditional banks and payment processors through blockchain technology, significantly reducing transaction costs. For example, the fee for cross-border transfers using USDT can be as low as $0.10, while traditional bank wire transfers typically cost $30-50. For small transactions (like paying for a cup of coffee), stablecoin transaction fees are only 10% of traditional credit card payments ($0.01 vs $0.15), significantly enhancing merchant profit margins.

Instant Settlement and Global Coverage
Stablecoin transaction confirmation times are usually within seconds to minutes, while traditional cross-border remittances can take days. This immediacy is especially suitable for international remittances and emergency payment scenarios, such as overseas workers transferring money to their families in real-time using USDT.

Price Stability and Trust Basis
Fiat-collateralized stablecoins (like USDC, USDT) are pegged to the US dollar at a 1:1 ratio, with price fluctuations typically not exceeding ±0.5%, far lower than high-volatility assets like Bitcoin. This makes merchants and consumers more willing to accept them as payment tools, avoiding exchange rate risks.

Financial Inclusivity
Stablecoins only require the internet and a digital wallet to use, reaching approximately 1.5 billion people globally who are unbanked. In countries with severe inflation (like Argentina and Turkey), stablecoins have become an alternative for everyday payments and asset preservation.

Smart Contract Automation
Stablecoins can integrate with smart contracts to enable automated payments, such as scheduled salary disbursements and condition-based payments in supply chains, reducing labor costs.

#空投防骗手册

1. Common Types of Airdrop Scams and Identification

Fake Official Websites

Tactic: Faking a website similar to a real project, luring users to connect their wallets or fill in sensitive information, and then stealing assets.

Identification Features: Abnormal domain suffixes (e.g., .com changed to .cn), unverified search engine links, URLs posted by unofficial social media accounts.

Authorization Token Theft

Tactic: Requesting users to authorize unknown smart contracts, using permissions to empty wallets.

High-Risk Operations: Not verifying the contract address when clicking the “Approve” button or not regularly revoking unused authorizations.

Fake KYC (Identity Verification)

Tactic: Requesting ID cards and facial information under the guise of compliance, reselling data or extorting users.

Identification Points: Legitimate KYC will not ask for private keys or mnemonic phrases; be wary of requests from unknown platforms.

Fake Customer Service Scams

Tactic: Impersonating official customer service to privately message users, tricking them into providing mnemonic phrases or private keys under the pretext of “account abnormalities.”

Prevention Principle: Official customer service will not request sensitive information via private messages; verification should be done through official website or verified blue channels.

High-Yield Traps

Tactic: Claiming annual returns exceeding 1000%, luring users to stake and then running away with the funds.

Warning Signals: Promising no-risk high returns, contracts not open-sourced or unaudited.



2. Core Prevention Measures

Information Verification and Channel Management

Official Website Verification: Manually enter the official website address to avoid clicking on third-party links; check the domain registration time and record information.

Social Account Identification: Only trust pinned announcements from official blue-v accounts, be wary of phishing links posted by impersonating accounts in comment sections.

Wallet and Authorization Security

Authorization Management: Use tools (such as revoke.cash) to regularly clean up useless contract authorizations; conduct small tests before larger transactions.

Wallet Isolation: Create a dedicated airdrop wallet to avoid exposing the main wallet to risks.

Sensitive Information Protection

Private Key/Mnemonic Phrase: Never provide to others under any circumstances, including “customer service” or “technical support.”

Identity Information Handling: Add watermarks (such as “for XX project use only”) when submitting KYC to prevent data reselling.

Beware of Psychological Manipulation

Time Pressure: Maintain skepticism towards phrases like “limited time offer” or “limited slots,” and avoid hasty decisions.

#特朗普就职百日 1. Core Policy Effects and Controversies

Economy and Trade: Turbulence and Backlash

Tariff war triggers global turmoil: The Trump administration, under the guise of 'reciprocal tariffs', raised tax rates on Chinese goods from 34% to 145%, leading to chaos in the supply chains of American companies, skyrocketing costs, and forcing retail giants like Walmart to resume imports and bear additional costs. The S&P 500 index fell by 8%, the dollar index dropped below the 100 mark, consumer confidence index declined for four consecutive months to 52.2, and inflation expectations rose to the highest level since 1981.

Economic disparity and pressure on livelihoods: Although US stocks rose temporarily due to policy expectations, job growth in manufacturing did not meet promises, and middle- and low-income families faced increased burdens due to rising prices (clothing +65%, footwear +87%). 72% of the public believes that tariff policies will lead to economic recession, and 59% expect personal finances to suffer.

Immigration and Border Control: Hardline Policies Encounter Obstacles

Mass deportation plans hindered: Initiated the 'largest mass deportation in history', covering 11 million undocumented immigrants, but several measures (such as abolishing 'birthright citizenship' and restoring the 'Remain in Mexico' policy) were halted by the courts due to constitutional controversies. 45% of the public supports his immigration policies, a decrease of 6 percentage points since March.

Administrative measures strengthen control: Declared a 'national emergency' at the border, invoking public health provisions to accelerate deportations, but the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention questioned its legality.

Diplomacy and Global Order: Unilateralism Intensifies Conflicts

'America First' impacts multilateral systems: Withdrew from the Paris Climate Agreement, threatened to reclaim control over the Panama Canal, and urged NATO allies to increase military spending, prompting counter tariffs from the EU, Canada, and 53 other countries. The global supply chain accelerates 'de-Americanization', with the EU shifting to deepen trade with China to hedge risks.

Geopolitical competition intensifies: Joint military exercises with Japan and South Korea pressure China in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, but lack substantial diplomatic outcomes, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowering the global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 2.8%.

Domestic Politics and Legal Challenges: Power Expansion and Opposition

Concentration of executive power: Reclassifying federal employees through 'Schedule F', dismissing civil servants appointed by the Biden administration, undermining the independence of the bureaucracy, saving $8 billion annually but exacerbating the loss of professional capabilities.

#SEC推迟多个现货ETF审批 一、SEC推迟审批的核心原因

监管合规性审查
SEC对加密货币市场的操纵风险和投资者保护问题始终存疑。例如，XRP、Solana等代币的证券属性仍存在法律争议 ，Ripple Labs与SEC的诉讼案尚未完全落幕，直接影响相关ETF的审批进程。此外，SEC要求发行方提供更严格的市场监控措施，以证明底层资产的抗操纵性（如引入链上监控工具） 。

政策环境不确定性
当前SEC正处于领导层过渡期，新任主席Paul Atkins的正式任命尚未完成，政策方向尚不明朗 。同时，特朗普政府推动的“战略比特币储备”计划增加了非比特币资产的监管复杂性，SEC需避免与国家战略冲突 。

市场波动与稳定性考量
自2024年底以来，加密市场持续低迷，以太坊价格下跌超53%，比特币从高点回落约27%，市场总市值缩水8%至2.7万亿美元。SEC担忧在市场尚未企稳时引入ETF可能放大抛售压力和波动性 。

 

二、市场反应与短期影响

代币价格承压：SEC推迟消息公布后，XRP、狗狗币等资产价格短期内下跌10%-12%，但比特币因机构资金支撑表现相对稳定 。

投资者情绪分化：部分投资者选择观望或转向已获批的比特币、以太坊ETF；另一些长期持有者则视其为低位布局机会 。

行业呼吁明确规则：从业者普遍认为，SEC需加快制定统一审批标准，避免滞后阻碍市场创新 。

#空投操作全指南

The following is a complete guide to Binance airdrop operations, compiled from the latest rules and practical experience:

1. Core Airdrop Types and Participation Methods

Alpha Points Airdrop

Enable Points Panel: In the Binance App, click on 'More' → 'Alpha Zone' → enable 'Points Display' feature to track points progress in real-time.

Points Acquisition Strategy:

Holding to Earn Points: Holding 100-1000U earns +1 point daily, holding 1000-10000U earns +2 points daily (recommended 1100U plan).

Trading to Earn Points: Daily trading of 64U/512U/2048U corresponds to +6/9/11 points respectively.

Lazy Combo: Holding 100U + trading 512U = 10 points daily, fastest to reach the 65 points threshold in 7 days.

Operation Suggestions: Prioritize trading SOL chain tokens (low slippage, low Gas fees), manually adjust slippage to 2%-5%.

HODLer Airdrop

Participation Conditions: Complete KYC verification, purchase BNB financial products (flexible or fixed) and hold long-term.

Operation Steps:

Purchase BNB (available through spot market or fiat channels).

Go to 'Wealth Management' → 'BNB' → choose flexible/fixed products to subscribe.

Maintain holdings until the airdrop snapshot is complete (snapshot time is usually before the announcement, requires long-term holding).

Earnings Characteristics: Historical single-instance return rate of 0.4%-1.7%, cumulative returns can be even more substantial.

Launchpool/Megadrop Airdrop

Stake BNB, FDUSD, and other tokens to participate in new project mining, need to pay attention to the 'Airdrop Center' or 'Megadrop' activity page.



2. Advanced Operation Skills

Dynamic Monitoring

Set Price Alerts: In the App, set price fluctuation alerts for target tokens to capture airdrop windows.

Subscribe to Official Notifications: Enable App push notifications, follow Binance on Twitter, Telegram, and other channels.

Community Interaction for Empowerment

Participate in Binance on-chain tasks, trading competitions, Q&A activities, some airdrops are linked to community points.

Follow the 'Square' channel to receive hidden tasks in a timely manner (such as cross-chain operations, social media interactions).

Multi-Chain Layout

In addition to Binance Chain, configure wallet addresses for Polygon, Solana, etc., to cover more public chain airdrop opportunities.



3. Risk Management Guidelines

Capital Safety

Use idle funds for operations, avoid chasing highs or heavily investing in a single project.

Layered Token Management: After airdrops are received, transfer to cold wallets or Binance Vault.

In-Depth Analysis of Arizona's Bitcoin Reserve Bill #亚利桑那比特币储备

1. Core Content and Progress of the Bill

The Arizona Senate and House of Representatives passed two key bills on April 28, 2025: SB1025 (Arizona Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act) and SB1373 (Strategic Digital Asset Reserve Act), marking the first state-level government in the United States to officially incorporate Bitcoin into public financial reserves.

SB1025: Allows state finances and retirement systems to invest up to 10% of public funds (including pensions, emergency reserves, etc.) in Bitcoin and supports storing Bitcoin in potential strategic reserve accounts managed by the federal government.

SB1373: Proposes the establishment of a digital asset strategic reserve fund managed by the state treasury, with funding sources including confiscated assets and legislative appropriations, allowing up to 10% of the fund's total value to be allocated to digital assets each year.
The bill has now been submitted for signature by Governor Katie Hobbs. Although Hobbs previously threatened to veto all bills until the budget dispute was resolved, there is a general expectation in the market that the likelihood of her signing is high as related legislation progresses.

2. Policy Motivations and Controversies

Supporters' Logic:

Asset Diversification: Hedging against traditional fiat currency inflation risks through Bitcoin, especially in the context of worsening issues related to U.S. debt and currency depreciation.

Leading Technological Innovation: Strengthening Arizona's position as a digital financial innovation center to attract blockchain companies and capital inflow.

Demonstration Effect: If the bill is passed, it may encourage at least 15 other states to follow suit, creating a nationwide wave of 'state-level Bitcoin reserves.'

Opponents' Concerns:

Price Volatility Risk: The high volatility of Bitcoin may threaten the safety of public funds, particularly the stability of retirement systems.

Lack of Regulation: The absence of a unified regulatory framework at the federal level may lead to policy conflicts or compliance gaps with state-level legislation.

#阿布扎比稳定币

1. Stablecoin Issuer and Policy Support

Sovereign Institutions Leading Cooperation: The Abu Dhabi Sovereign Wealth Fund (ADQ), UAE International Holding Company (IHC), and First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB) jointly announced on April 29, 2025, plans to launch a stablecoin backed by the Emirati Dirham (AED), which will be fully regulated by the Central Bank of the UAE and issued by FAB. This initiative aims to promote the digital application of the Dirham, covering scenarios such as payments and cross-border trade.

Well-Established Regulatory Framework: The Payment Token Services Regulations released by the Central Bank of the UAE explicitly require that stablecoins be pegged to the Dirham on a 1:1 basis, and reserves must be custodied by licensed banks to ensure compliance and security. The dual regulatory system of federal and local (such as Dubai VARA and Abu Dhabi ADGM) provides flexible space for innovation.



2. Market Positioning and Competitive Landscape

Combination of Localization and Globalization: The Abu Dhabi stablecoin serves not only the payment needs within the UAE (such as real estate tokenization pilots) but also targets cross-border trade scenarios. The Dirham stablecoin can reduce dependence on the US dollar and enhance the influence of regional currencies, especially in the Middle East, Africa, and Asian markets.

Coexistence of Competition and Cooperation: International stablecoin issuers like Tether and Circle have collaborated with local enterprises (such as Phoenix Group) to explore compliant issuance paths. At the same time, Abu Dhabi is also nurturing local stablecoin projects (such as AE Coin), forming a diversified competitive landscape.



3. Impact on the Financial Ecosystem

Driving Traditional Financial Transformation: Traditional institutions like Emirates NBD have launched cryptocurrency services, and the widespread adoption of stablecoins will further accelerate the integration of traditional finance and blockchain.

Promoting Cross-Border Payments and Inclusive Finance: The real-time settlement characteristics of stablecoins can lower the costs of cross-border transactions, particularly in the Middle East and South Asia where remittance demand is high. For example, Dubai courts have allowed cryptocurrency payments for wages, providing a policy foundation for the application of stablecoins.

$BTC
I. Key Technical Indicators

Support and Resistance

Upper Resistance: $95,700 (24-hour high) → $96,500 (short-term target) → $98,000 (medium-term target).

Lower Support: $95,000 (previous resistance turned support) → $94,500 (recent support) → $93,500 (strong short-term support).

Key Battleground: Whether it can hold above $95,000 will determine the short-term direction; if it breaks $96,500, it may accelerate towards the psychological level of $100,000.

Technical Indicator Signals

RSI: 54.32-59.4 (neutral to strong), close to overbought territory but not overheated, need to be cautious of pullback risks.

MACD: Remains in the buy zone, but the red bars decreasing show weakening bullish momentum.

Bollinger Bands: Running above the middle band and the channel is expanding, short-term trend is strong but needs to verify sustainability.



II. Market Sentiment and Capital Dynamics

Sentiment Indicators

Fear and Greed Index: Increased from 54 to 60 (greed zone), market confidence is strengthening, but need to be cautious of short-term overheating pullbacks.

Exchange Holding Amount: Reached a 7-year low (about 2.49 million coins), the proportion of long-term holders is increasing, selling pressure is easing.

Capital Flow

ETF funds continue to flow in, with institutional buying providing price support, but if inflows slow down, it may trigger volatility.

24-hour Liquidation Data: Over 110,000 people liquidated $275 million, intense long/short battles, short-term volatility risk is high.



III. Long/Short Battles and Operational Suggestions

Bullish Logic

After breaking the key resistance level of $95,000, technical indicators open up an upward channel; if it holds above $96,500, it may initiate a rally towards $100,000.

Arizona, USA passes Bitcoin reserve bill, policy signals long-term benefits.

Bearish Risks

Daily lines continuously close with long upper shadows, the upper Bollinger Band is under pressure forming a “shooting star” pattern; if it falls below $92,700, it may confirm a short-term top.

Altcoins diverge from BTC, market funds are focusing on mainstream coins, need to be cautious of profit-taking selling causing a chain reaction of pullbacks.

Strategy Reference

Long: Accumulate in batches below $94,500 on pullbacks, target $96,500-$98,000.

Short: Lightly short on rebounds above $96,500, set stop-loss above $97,000.

#特朗普税改
I. Major Reform Measures

Corporate Income Tax Reform

Significant Tax Rate Reduction: From 35% to 21% (final version), with some early proposals suggesting a reduction to 15%.

Overseas Profit Tax Adjustment: A one-time tax rate of 15.5% (cash) or 8% (non-cash assets) on profits retained overseas, implementing the principle of territorial taxation, with overseas subsidiary dividends being tax-exempt.

Other Adjustments: Allowing enterprises to deduct current year expenses, limiting interest expense deductions, etc.

Individual Income Tax Reform

Simplification of Tax Brackets: From seven brackets simplified to three (early proposal) or retaining seven brackets but lowering the highest tax rate (final version), with the highest marginal tax rate reduced from 39.6% to 37%.

Increase in Deduction Standards: The deduction amount for married joint filing is doubled to $24,000, and the child tax credit amount is increased.

Elimination of Certain Tax Benefits: Such as the repeal of the estate tax and the mandatory insurance provisions of the Affordable Care Act, etc.

Cross-Border Tax Rules

Introduction of Base Erosion and Anti-Abuse Tax (BEAT), limiting multinational corporations' ability to avoid taxes through internal transactions.

II. Economic Impact and Controversies

Positive Effects

Stimulating Investment and Employment: The reduction in corporate tax rates is believed to attract capital back, increasing domestic investment and job opportunities.

Short-term Economic Growth: Some institutions predict that tax reform may temporarily boost U.S. GDP growth, but long-term effects are uncertain.

Negative Risks

Expansion of Fiscal Deficit: The expected tax cut size over the next decade is between $4.4 trillion to $5.9 trillion, potentially raising the federal debt-to-GDP ratio to 111%.

Income Inequality: High-income groups (especially the top 1%) benefit significantly, while the actual tax cut effect for middle and low-income families is limited.

International Tax Competition: Triggering similar tax cuts in multiple countries, intensifying global tax system competition.

III. Implementation and Legislative Process

Passage Date: Passed by the Senate in December 2017 with a vote of 51:49, marking the largest tax reform since the Reagan era.

Controversy Focus: The plan lacks fiscal revenue compensation measures, with significant differences between the two parties regarding economic growth expectations (e.g., the 3% growth assumption being questioned as unrealistic).

Not again

#XRPETF

1. Institutional Demand and Liquidity Enhancement

The launch of the XRP ETF will significantly lower the barriers for institutional investors to participate in the cryptocurrency market, providing a compliant and convenient way to invest in XRP through traditional financial channels, attracting more institutional capital inflow. For example, the potential participation of asset management giants like BlackRock could bring in tens of billions of dollars in net inflows (J.P. Morgan predicts that it could reach $4-8 billion in the first year), directly boosting XRP demand. Additionally, the ETF's 'custody lock-up' mechanism may reduce the circulating supply of XRP, creating a supply-demand imbalance that further supports price increases.

2. Short-term Volatility and Market Games

Despite a long-term bullish outlook, the ETF approval process may trigger severe short-term volatility. For instance, after the SEC delayed the approval of the XRP ETF in March 2025, the price of XRP plummeted from $2.40 to $1.90, and then rebounded to $2.28 due to whale buying. Similarly, the 'creation/redemption' mechanism in the early stages of the ETF launch may lead to price fluctuations due to market adjustments, especially when the ETF shares interact with arbitrage activities in the spot market. Moreover, the introduction of leveraged ETFs (such as the XXRP ETF) may amplify market volatility, as evidenced by XRP's recent drop of 7.4% within 24 hours.

3. Regulatory Clarity and Market Confidence

The approval of the XRP ETF itself represents regulatory recognition of XRP's legitimacy, especially after the appointment of the new SEC chair, Paul Atkins (a pro-crypto figure), which has significantly alleviated market concerns about regulatory risks. The previous settlement of the SEC lawsuit has laid a legal foundation for XRP, and the rollout of the ETF will further solidify its status as 'financial infrastructure', attracting partnerships with traditional financial institutions (such as Ripple's cross-border payment application with Unicâmbio).

$XRP

1. Price and Market Performance

Current Price: XRP is currently around $2.20, down 1.2% in 24 hours, with an intraday fluctuation range of $2.13-$2.24.

Market Background: Following CME Group's announcement to launch XRP futures contracts (scheduled to go live on May 19), the market expects institutional funds to enter, but the short-term response has been muted, possibly related to the overall profit-taking sentiment in the cryptocurrency market.

2. Technical Indicators and Bull-Bear Tug of War

Support and Resistance:

Short-term Support: $2.20 (100-day moving average), $1.88 trendline support; if it breaks down, it may test the $1.87 area.

Resistance Levels: $2.25 (50-day moving average), $2.45 (200-day moving average), and if broken, may challenge $2.60.

Conflicting Technical Signals:

Bullish Signals: The Parabolic SAR is positioned below the current price, forming dynamic support, and the MACD has recently shown a bullish crossover.

Bearish Signals: Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is trending towards the centerline (0.03), and the Balance of Power (BoP) is -0.76, indicating weakened demand and a risk of divergence between price and money flow.

3. On-chain Data and Market Sentiment

On-chain Activity: In mid-April, XRP's daily active addresses surged by 67%, increasing from 27,000 to 40,000, reflecting an increase in network usage.

Whale Movements: In April, the proportion of large addresses (10 million to 100 million XRP) increased by about 1%, indicating that whales are accumulating at lower prices, but caution is needed regarding the risk of concentrated sell-offs.

Derivatives Market: Futures open interest shrunk to $3.88 billion, with daily trading volume down 27.84%; although options trading volume surged by 160.5%, open interest fell by 10%, indicating a focus on short-term position adjustments.

4. Macroeconomic and Regulatory Dynamics

Regulatory Good News: The new SEC Chairman, Paul Atkins, has a historically friendly stance towards cryptocurrencies, which may promote a settlement in the Ripple lawsuit and be a long-term positive for XRP.

Macroeconomic Factors: The Fed's hawkish signals and easing geopolitical risks weaken demand for gold as a safe haven, with some funds possibly shifting to the crypto market, but attention should be paid to today's US GDP and PCE data for guidance on policy expectations.

5. Short-term Trading Suggestions

Bullish Scenario: If it holds above $2.20 and breaks through $2.25, attention can be given to the target range of $2.45-$2.60, with a need for increased volume to confirm the trend.

#特朗普暂停新关税
1. Direct Reasons for Suspending Tariffs

Domestic Economic Pressure Forces Adjustment

High tariffs trigger a sharp decline in U.S. stocks (Nasdaq index fell nearly 6% in a single day), and U.S. Treasury yields surge, intensifying market concerns about economic recession. Business leaders collectively lobby the White House, warning that supply chain disruptions and rising consumer costs will weaken U.S. competitiveness.

Treasury Secretary Becerra and other core aides push for a policy shift, emphasizing that "the trade war is difficult to sustain," and that negotiations are needed to alleviate market panic.

International Counterpressure Intensifies

Allies such as the European Union and Canada plan to impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods, risking the collapse of the global trading system. For example, the EU originally planned to impose a 25% retaliatory tariff on the U.S., but has now shifted to an "observation period" after the suspension.

China responds in kind (raising tariffs on the U.S. to 125%) and initiates non-tariff measures such as rare earth export controls, exacerbating pressure on U.S. industrial chains.

2. Strategic Intent and Deeper Logic

“Divide and Pressure” Strategy

By exempting tariffs for 75 countries, isolating China and courting allies, the aim is to build an “anti-China alliance.” For example, Vietnam and Japan have committed to increasing U.S. energy and agricultural product purchases in exchange for exemptions.

Testing the Global Supply Chain Replacement Capacity, but data shows that Southeast Asian countries have only 1/5 of China's capacity in precision manufacturing, making it difficult to replace the Chinese supply chain in the short term.

Paving the Way for Election Cycles

Alleviating Inflation Pressure: U.S. CPI rose 3.5% year-on-year in February, and the cost of tariffs being passed on has increased the burden on people's livelihoods, affecting support rates among swing voters.

Shaping Negotiation Outcomes: Trump claims to "reach 90 agreements within 90 days," attempting to showcase "strong diplomatic achievements" before the election.