Market Sentiment and Capital Dynamics

Institutional Capital Continues to Enter

Bitcoin spot ETF net inflows exceeded $40.7 billion, with BlackRock's IBIT holdings reaching $63 billion, a record high; Ethereum ETF saw a single-day net inflow of $19.2 million, indicating strong institutional allocation demand. Meanwhile, MicroStrategy announced the '42/42 plan', intending to raise $84 billion to increase BTC holdings over the next two years, while whale addresses increased their holdings by 81,338 BTC during the same period.

Leverage Risks and Sentiment Divergence

After Bitcoin surpassed $100,000, $968 million was liquidated across the network within 24 hours, with shorts accounting for 86% ($836 million), marking a six-month high. High-leverage trading in the market has intensified volatility risks, but the proportion of long-term holders has risen to 69.1%, with the number of non-zero addresses reaching 48.5 million (a historical high), limiting selling pressure.

Technical Upgrades and Ecological Breakthroughs

Ethereum Leads the Charge and Ecological Optimization

Ethereum has completed the 'Prague Upgrade' (Pectra), introducing EIP-7702 (account abstraction) and EIP-7251 (validator staking cap increase), resulting in a 12% growth in active on-chain addresses, a rebound in DEX trading volume, pushing ETH price above $2,200 (a single-day increase of 21.4%). The ETH/BTC exchange rate rebounded to 0.02, with the technical MACD golden cross indicating bullish momentum.

Maturity of the Bitcoin Network

The proliferation of the Lightning Network has reduced transaction costs, with a 12% increase in active on-chain addresses, and the MVRV indicator returning to healthy levels, showing no signs of excessive speculation.