On May 9, 2025, Bitcoin (#BTC重返10万 ) strongly broke through the $100,000 mark, reaching a new high since February, mainly driven by three factors:

Macroeconomic policy and funding: Expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut are rising (September probability 68%), coupled with multiple states in the U.S. advancing Bitcoin reserve bills (such as New Hampshire), signaling institutional entry. Spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $5.8 billion in one week, with giants like BlackRock continuing to increase positions.

Market sentiment and technical breakthroughs: The key resistance level at $100,000 was significantly breached, with daily trading volume surging 217% to $46 billion, and outstanding contracts for bullish derivatives options exceeding $15 billion (with a strike price of $120,000 making up 35%). The MACD technical indicator confirmed a golden cross, with short-term targets looking at $105,000 to $110,000.

Geopolitical and narrative driving: The U.S. and U.K. reached a trade agreement alleviating tariff concerns, and risk appetite for capital has rebounded; expectations for Trump’s policies supporting the crypto industry are rising, reinforcing the “digital gold” narrative.

Risk warning: RSI is overbought (daily at 85), and high-leverage trading has led to a liquidation of $968 million in 24 hours; if it breaks the support at $97,800, it may retrace to $95,000. In the medium to long term, it remains supported by supply tightening post-halving and increased institutional holdings, with Standard Chartered raising its target to $200,000.