#山寨季何时到来

1. Altcoin Season Trigger Timing Prediction

Short-Term Window (Mid to Late May)

Core Observation Point: Bitcoin needs to stabilize in the $90,000 - $100,000 range, with dominance continuing to decline below 60%.

Event Catalyst: XRP spot ETF approval results (to be announced in mid-May), SUI triangle breakout (if successful, could gain 70% in a single week).

Medium-Term Window (Q3)

Potential Driving Force: Increased expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts (70% probability in June), institutional reallocation to mid and small-cap cryptocurrencies (giants like BlackRock have completed BTC positioning).

Technical Breakthrough: Ethereum 2.0 fully implemented, AI blockchain projects concentrated online (17 projects have been positioned through Coinbase's dark pool).

2. Risk Warning

Policy Black Swan: The final ruling by the US SEC on the Ethereum ETF (to be announced before Q3) could trigger severe market volatility.

Liquidity Trap: Some altcoin trading volumes have shrunk by 37% year-on-year, and the number of active addresses on-chain is declining, beware of the risk of “false breakouts” (e.g., if XRP drops below the support level of $2.15 or retraces to $1.90).

High FDV Coin Risk: Recently listed new coins on exchanges have a circulation rate of only 5%, and the market cap calculated on a fully circulating basis presents a bubble with a potential tenfold overshoot in gains.